Could the Ottoman Empire survive without Constantinople?

I've been writing this TL where Germany, Russia and Italy form an alliance in the 1850s, completely screwing up the balance of power in Europe. One thing I was thinking of having happen was Russia, Germany and Italy completely eliminating Ottoman influence in the Balkans, with the Russians going so far as to annex Constantinople and force the Ottoman Empire entirely out of Europe.

In a situation where the Ottomans lose Constantinople and all their European territory, could the Ottoman Empire still survive as an exclusively-Asian entity?
 
I've been writing this TL where Germany, Russia and Italy form an alliance in the 1850s, completely screwing up the balance of power in Europe.
COuld you please explain what is your PoD? In particular how come Germany exists, at least as an entity with a coherent foreign policy, in the 1850s?

Also, what happened to AH, if Italy is a power in the Balkans and AH is not?
 
Basically...

Tsar Nicholas catches TB early in 1848
Sensing Russian weakness, Poles stage revolution
Combination of incapacitated tsar and revolution on Russian soil, Russia incapacitated as gendarme of Europe for next couple of years (Nick dies in 1850)
With Russia tied up, Frankfurt Parliament succeeds, Fred William becomes Kaiser
Austrian Empire falls to bits due to lack of Russian assistance
Italy wins war of independence, seizes several Austrian Empire territories (inc. Dalmatia)
Austria joins Germany as a constituent kingdom
Hungary becomes independent republic
Italy unites over next few years
Germany and Italy form alliance to guard against Anglo-French
Tsar Nicholas dies, replaced by Alex ahead of schedule
Alex, being less reactionary and needing allies for Balkan activities, tries to join German-Italian alliance
GRI alliance (Berlin Treaty international alliance) comes into effect in mid-to-late 50s.

I made this timeline working with several others in an earlier topic. Important helpers were General Zod, Wednesday and LordKalvan.
 
I'm definitely not a specialist of the Ottoman empire ( especially compared to some posters here ), but, in my opinion, it could occur, in the TL you describe.

However, I don't see that occuring without a BIG war as Ottomans are likely to fight literally to the knife to avoid loosing The City. And Uk is likely to be drawn in.

I'm not quite so sure about France. I suppose there is no war of 71 in your TL, so no revanchism. but France already has Algeria and interests in Egypt, so I'm not sure they would fight to prop up the Ottomans, especially against a united Germany-Austria. ( BTW, does France still turn imperial in your TL or does she avoid the faquin? )

So, given a big enough war, with ottoman manpower bled white, I'd say it's possible that Ottoman would survive as an asian only power, but I'd say in this case, they would be pretty much limited to Anatolia ( plus maybe a few other ), as they will remove troops from surrounding territories to avoid losing Constantinoples.

EDIT : basically, I think I'm saying that you need to really break the Ottomans before they accept the loss of The City and if that happens, they may recreate their state on what territory they manage to hold to ( expect a revanchism sentiment, however )
 
I'm not quite so sure about France. I suppose there is no war of 71 in your TL

There is a war of 68, though. A modified version of the Luxembourg crisis spills over. France attacks, Germany retaliates, Italy helps Germany, Russia offers diplomatic support, France is overpowered quickly.

The French have an African empire beyond Algeria, but Germany seizes a lot of what was supposed to be French territory, and Italy get both Tunisia and Libya - they administrate it as a unified jurisdiction, the "Carthaginian Territories".

So, given a big enough war, with ottoman manpower bled white, I'd say it's possible that Ottoman would survive as an asian only power, but I'd say in this case, they would be pretty much limited to Anatolia ( plus maybe a few other ), as they will remove troops from surrounding territories to avoid losing Constantinoples.

I was kind of hoping they'd still dominate Palestine and Mesopotamia too, but I guess that also works.
 
There is a war of 68, though. A modified version of the Luxembourg crisis spills over. France attacks, Germany retaliates, Italy helps Germany, Russia offers diplomatic support, France is overpowered quickly.

Would France attack such a Germany? Especially one that could count on Russian and Italian assistance? This is a France that hasn't been humbled by the F-P war but I still have a hard time believing she would launch such a venture alone. As for the topic question. I think the Ottomans would only survive as a rump Turkish state. I think the outer parts of the empire would revolt or be 'protected' by some of the European powers in turn. If the Russian do go so far as to take the Golden city from the Turks I think they might also take some land around the Kars region or set up some kind of puppet Armenian state as well. Turks might be able to hold onto some of the Syrian or Lebanon’s territory but not much else. So yes ... but in a much more fragmented version of modern Turkey.
With such a collection of power in central and Eastern Europe the UK is definitely going to be forced to snuggle up with France. Perhaps even some of the Scandinavian countries worried about the Bear too. The UK would offer assistance to what's left of the Ottomans as well. For the sake of France, I hope they have some better leadership than OTL. NapIII isn't going to cut it here.
 
Would France attack such a Germany? Especially one that could count on Russian and Italian assistance? This is a France that hasn't been humbled by the F-P war but I still have a hard time believing she would launch such a venture alone.

France is expecting English support in their little adventure, but they never get it ITTL due to an earlier diplomatic fallout regarding the handling of European involvement in the American Civil War.
 

Keenir

Banned
I've been writing this TL where Germany, Russia and Italy form an alliance in the 1850s, completely screwing up the balance of power in Europe. One thing I was thinking of having happen was Russia, Germany and Italy completely eliminating Ottoman influence in the Balkans, with the Russians going so far as to annex Constantinople and force the Ottoman Empire entirely out of Europe.

In a situation where the Ottomans lose Constantinople and all their European territory, could the Ottoman Empire still survive as an exclusively-Asian entity?

even if they somehow lost Constantinople, it'll be even tougher to get the Ottomans out of Europe.

but, assuming the Russians roll all 6s for once, yeah, the Ottomans could survive as a Asian nation - that's how they started off, after all.
 
Hmmm. I think the Ottomans were capable of being an Asia-only polity, certainly. Obviously if the lose Constantinople they've been beaten pretty damn hard, but they could be left in Anatolia and their other Asian territories (perhaps with more Egypt-style pseudo-colonies) as a conveniant Caliphate-controlling puppet by the victors, or sustained by Britain and France.

I'm dubious about your TL, though. I think the failure of 1848 in Germany was a result of the triumph of reaction internally, without Russian help. Hungary becoming independent thanks to Russia staying out and luck would change things a lot, and certainly increase the chances of Greater Germany coming about, but not secure success in 1848. For an 1848 victory, you probably want a sane, nationalistic FWIV.
 
I'm dubious about your TL, though. I think the failure of 1848 in Germany was a result of the triumph of reaction internally, without Russian help. Hungary becoming independent thanks to Russia staying out and luck would change things a lot, and certainly increase the chances of Greater Germany coming about, but not secure success in 1848. For an 1848 victory, you probably want a sane, nationalistic FWIV.

Originally, my timeline used a double-PoD (Nick gets TB, FWIV is a nationalist) - I posted this timeline with just a single PoD since I wanted to see if I could get away with a single PoD and still make sense. Apparently not.
 
The major flaw with this idea is Great Britains absolute policy of keeping Russia out of the Med. A work around for this might be to give Constantinople to the Bulgarians or create some kind of subsidary Byzantine state. But if Russia annexes the city England is going to war, of that there can be no doubt.
 
Originally, my timeline used a double-PoD (Nick gets TB, FWIV is a nationalist) - I posted this timeline with just a single PoD since I wanted to see if I could get away with a single PoD and still make sense. Apparently not.

I doubt you would get Austria joining Germany on anything but equal status with Prussia or at least between the Hapsburgs and the Hohenzollern's. They would probably prefer the lead role, and at this point they would have backing from many of the south German states. If not they will take an independent course in the same manner as Hungary. How exactly did A-H fall apart...is this the Hungarian Revolution? It would still leave Austria with Bohemia and Galicia unless the Russians have usurped the Hapsburg domains there.
 
The major flaw with this idea is Great Britains absolute policy of keeping Russia out of the Med. A work around for this might be to give Constantinople to the Bulgarians or create some kind of subsidary Byzantine state. But if Russia annexes the city England is going to war, of that there can be no doubt.

The Russians, Germans and Italians ganging up on the Ottoman Empire forms part of the ITTL equivalent of World War I; so yes, I'm not worried about the fact that this will be a gigantic conflict dragging in France, England, Italy, Russia, Germany and possibly the United States.

How exactly did A-H fall apart

German nationalists + Hungarian nationalists + Italian nationalists + severe setbacks in Italian war + refusal of Ferdinand I to abdicate in favour of his nephew + lack of Russian assistance.
 
I've been writing this TL where Germany, Russia and Italy form an alliance in the 1850s, completely screwing up the balance of power in Europe. One thing I was thinking of having happen was Russia, Germany and Italy completely eliminating Ottoman influence in the Balkans, with the Russians going so far as to annex Constantinople and force the Ottoman Empire entirely out of Europe.

In a situation where the Ottomans lose Constantinople and all their European territory, could the Ottoman Empire still survive as an exclusively-Asian entity?

It could survive as a protectorate of another power, but not independently. Without the economic power of the Balkans and Istanbul, it's not really much of a state. As a protectorate, it would lose whatever prestige it has and would probably be dismembered by its "protector".
 
Imagine that the Balkan Peninsula were conquered by Russian-Austrian alliance in 1850-s. Russians conquer and permanently annex Constantinople and a chunk of the western shore of Black Sea. Austria gets a more inland sector, extending all the way to Dardanelles. A slice of Aegean is handed to Greece. What the allies do not do is pursue the Turks to Asia Minor and beyond to Holy Land and Mecca.

Britain, who in OTL Crimean War stood up to prop up Turkey against Russia alone has difficulties recovering Balkans for Turkey against Russia/Austria combined. They therefore limit themselves to propping up and protecting the rump Ottoman empire.

What next?
 
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