Could the northern Yuan reconquer China?

[Gukpard]

So, a problem with discussions about topics like this is that usually there is this belief that certain things couldn't happen due magic features, with one example being some people asserting that Yuan China and Wing China would implode since they weren't ethnically Han dynasties. Let's try to jump this part.

The Yuan Dynasty lost most of the south after the red turban rebellions. Could they reconquer everything all the way to Hainan? They still have Mongolia all the way to Baikal and inner Mongolia. Maybe they could invade or vassalize Manchuria for more resources and manpower in preparation to move south. For this scenario the Ming can implode.

 

[schai]

It would be very difficult, since Chinese had learned and mastered the Mongol military tactics - fake retreat and then ambush the enemies. In fact, the Ming's army had used the same tactics to defeat the Mongol armies on multiple occasions (For exmaple, against Koke Temur).

To reconquer China, Mongol had to develop new tactics and adapt new weapons.

 

[Aghstadian]

Tactic and weapon aside, Northen Yuan khan is nothing more than nominal ruler most of the time. Before attempt of reconquest can happen the khan authority need to be asserted first and need to last to his successor too otherwise any success will be short-lived.

A way too prevent total loss of the khan power in the first place is they need to at least stalemate the Ming and preserved their rule in area still under their control like Liaoning and Manchuria, prevent the sack of Karakorum and the lost of Yinchang. After that they need to consolidate first and wait for a chance of instability in China. If they ever return to China, i think it will be long process and most likely due to invited by one of the player in Chinese instability or civil war. While not impossible it will be hard and long process and need a bit of luck too.

 

[Osman Aga]

So, a problem with discussions about topics like this is that usually there is this belief that certain things couldn't happen due magic features, with one example being some people asserting that Yuan China and Wing China would implode since they weren't ethnically Han dynasties. Let's try to jump this part.

The Yuan Dynasty lost most of the south after the red turban rebellions. Could they reconquer everything all the way to Hainan? They still have Mongolia all the way to Baikal and inner Mongolia. Maybe they could invade or vassalize Manchuria for more resources and manpower in preparation to move south. For this scenario the Ming can implode.

If the Manchus succeeded, so can the Mongols. Most likely the same way (Pacify other tribes of your people and ally generals hostile to the Emperor).

 

[Gukpard]

If the Manchus succeeded, so can the Mongols. Most likely the same way (Pacify other tribes of your people and ally generals hostile to the Emperor).

Tactic and weapon aside, Northen Yuan khan is nothing more than nominal ruler most of the time. Before attempt of reconquest can happen the khan authority need to be asserted first and need to last to his successor too otherwise any success will be short-lived.

A way too prevent total loss of the khan power in the first place is they need to at least stalemate the Ming and preserved their rule in area still under their control like Liaoning and Manchuria, prevent the sack of Karakorum and the lost of Yinchang. After that they need to consolidate first and wait for a chance of instability in China. If they ever return to China, i think it will be long process and most likely due to invited by one of the player in Chinese instability or civil war. While not impossible it will be hard and long process and need a bit of luck too.

How long the process could take?

 

[Osman Aga]

How long the process could take?

Around 40-50 years I suppose.

 

[Gukpard]

Around 40-50 years I suppose.

That is way faster than I tough. Nice.

How was the North Yuan like after Beijing fell?

 

[Osman Aga]

That is way faster than I tough. Nice.

How was the North Yuan like after Beijing fell?

Unorganized, more fighting with other Mongol tribes than actually a threat to Ming.

Religion can be used to subjugate each other. Altan Khan became Buddhist. However other religions can be used to subjugate other tribes and unite them by religion. I think about Islam and Christianity. Both do the same trick although the former does give options to move into Central Asia and the Tarim Basin.

 

[Gukpard]

Unorganized, more fighting with other Mongol tribes than actually a threat to Ming.

Religion can be used to subjugate each other. Altan Khan became Buddhist. However other religions can be used to subjugate other tribes and unite them by religion. I think about Islam and Christianity. Both do the same trick although the former does give options to move into Central Asia and the Tarim Basin.

Christian yuan dynasty!
Christian yuan dynasty!

We need a TL like that urgently.

 

[Osman Aga]

Christian yuan dynasty!
Christian yuan dynasty!

We need a TL like that urgently.

Now the question is... a Nestorian Northern Yuan Dynasty? Or influenced by the one and only Eastern Orthodox Church? Give Altan Khan a divine revelation and he will make sure every Mongolian (and Manchu) leader is baptized.

 

[Gukpard]

Now the question is... a Nestorian Northern Yuan Dynasty? Or influenced by the one and only Eastern Orthodox Church? Give Altan Khan a divine revelation and he will make sure every Mongolian (and Manchu) leader is baptized.

I imagine if this will make people non ironically think China is European. 19th century eugenists could claim that the Mongols are Aryans who moved south and europeanized China by making them adopt Christianity.

 

[EnvarKadri]

I imagine if this will make people non ironically think China is European. 19th century eugenists could claim that the Mongols are Aryans who moved south and europeanized China by making them adopt Christianity.

A christian dynasty in China MAY be possible. A larger christian minority in china too. A majority christian china seems pretty pretty unlikely.
Confusianism is pretty entrenched. And the confusian burocracy literally every chinese dynasty (han or not han) used to rule was very hostile to any religion that intended to posess political power in their empire.

 

[Gukpard]

A christian dynasty in China MAY be possible. A larger christian minority in china too. A majority christian china seems pretty pretty unlikely.
Confusianism is pretty entrenched. And the confusian burocracy literally every chinese dynasty (han or not han) used to rule was very hostile to any religion that intended to posess political power in their empire.

The north would be more Christian and the south more Confucian in this scenario I believe.

 

[Osman Aga]

A christian dynasty in China MAY be possible. A larger christian minority in china too. A majority christian china seems pretty pretty unlikely.
Confusianism is pretty entrenched. And the confusian burocracy literally every chinese dynasty (han or not han) used to rule was very hostile to any religion that intended to posess political power in their empire.

Majority x religion (x = any Abrahamic religion) in China post-1500 is very much impossible.

 

[Osman Aga]

The north would be more Christian and the south more Confucian in this scenario I believe.

Getting the North to turn Christianity is easier as the Mongols and Manchus aren't that numerous. From that point on it depends on how much missionary effect there is in the North. I see one problem: The Southern and Central Chinese population will likely associate Christianity with their invader rulers and thus be more inclined to resist conversion. If missionary activity is very low, the rulers being pragmatic, the North of China could have a larger Christian population relatively speaking around 25-45%, if the Mongols rule continuously until the early 20th century at least. The European Missionaries will speed things up.

I have however, my doubts if the Northern Chinese Han Population will become majority Christian.

 

[ramones1986]

Could Jin Chinese (晉語) expand beyond its OTL linguistic area and became the predominant language of (ATL) northern China, accompanied by an abugida (either Phagspa, Tibetan or even Siddham sctipt) as a complement to Chinese characters? Nonetheless, that could be uncertain, more or less.

 

[fdas]

A christian dynasty in China MAY be possible. A larger christian minority in china too. A majority christian china seems pretty pretty unlikely.
Confusianism is pretty entrenched. And the confusian burocracy literally every chinese dynasty (han or not han) used to rule was very hostile to any religion that intended to posess political power in their empire.

If the Mongols purge the bureaucracy and the Confucian elite, there may be room for a new ideology.

 

[EnvarKadri]

If the Mongols purge the bureaucracy and the Confucian elite, there may be room for a new ideology.

That's a completely different can of worms. I dont even know if a territory like China can be ruled if you eliminate the confusian burocracy. I dont even know if anyone has actually tried that before the 20th century.