Could the Nazis have taken the Caucasus by Sea?

Kaze

Banned
I would expect Turkey to enter the War as an allay. They would be forced to do so - so entrance to the black sea through there is impossible.

The other, other option that has yet to be discussed would be the unreliable ally of Romania. Romania did have a navy (a non-significant navy) , but a way in if you attack through there... But, Romania is not a trusted Allay to the Axis - hell, if you go by one historian's analysis of the country - they declared war on both sides and still lost, lost so badly that the leader of Romania was taken to a firing squad and when they missed him, he got up and began dressing the squad down for not shooting him properly, and the squad proceeded to beat him to death with the buts of their rifles.
 
Got these stats from the wikipage of Black Sea Operations between 1941 - 1944.
Seems the Soviet surface fleet had them beat but again if the Luftwaffe had been deployed in force, I wonder if the it could've made up the difference.

Romania

4 destroyers
4 torpedo boats
3 minelayers
3 gunboats
1 submarine tender
1 training ship
8 submarines

Germany
16 torpedo boats
6 submarines
49 ASW craft
100+ landing craft

Italy
7+ torpedo boats
6 submarines

Bulgaria
11 torpedo boats
5 ASW craft
14 landing craft

Croatia
12 ASW craft

Vs

Soviet Union
1 battleship
6 cruisers
19 destroyers
15 multi-purpose small ships
84 motor torpedo boats
44 submarine
 
The Soviets can sail and bombard at night, then they'll be hard to hit

the Axis were fighting asymmetrical warfare, using u-boats and fast attack boats, they would sorely like the Soviet fleet to be maneuvering around at night.
 
The Soviets can sail and bombard at night, then they'll be hard to hit

Theoretically, but it's the Soviet navy we're talking about. They were unable due to many reasons to operate their superior surface units against might of the Luftwaffe.

It's not the numbers alone but quality. Despite overwhelming quantitative superiority Soviet navy mostly failed in it's Black Sea duties. Minor units, however, performed admirable service in Azov sea, for example. With proper effort the Axis could have utilized the Black Sea as an assault and logistical route much more than OTL.

I would strongly recommend you to read upon Soviet naval operations in the Black Sea and the Baltic. The Soviets as Naval Opponents, 1941-1975 by Friedrich Ruge is a good start. Even if the perspective is German, the statistics are largely right.
 
Yes

And, despite all the bad jokes about the Italian military, the Italian Navy and Air Force were available to cover these ships movements.
They had their own issues with their oil supply and were needed to help supply North Africa. Plus they have to deal with the Turkish Straits. Reminds me of one Hearts of Iron 3 game I played where by buffed Soviet Navy had to deal with a big chunk of the Italian fleet in the Black Sea at one point (I won thanks to the fact I had a carrier at that point plus more cruisers plus land aviation).

Realistically this will all force Turkey to take a side, and if they side with the Axis, they might be the first to switch allegiances. There's a risk in being the first to violate the Turkish Straits.
 
They had their own issues with their oil supply and were needed to help supply North Africa. Plus they have to deal with the Turkish Straits. Reminds me of one Hearts of Iron 3 game I played where by buffed Soviet Navy had to deal with a big chunk of the Italian fleet in the Black Sea at one point (I won thanks to the fact I had a carrier at that point plus more cruisers plus land aviation).

Realistically this will all force Turkey to take a side, and if they side with the Axis, they might be the first to switch allegiances. There's a risk in being the first to violate the Turkish Straits.

There's no need to go through Turkish straits, except with merchants which passed through the Dardanelles OTL. Light units delivered via Danube + air power is more than enough.
 
The lack of forethought on bringing Kriegsmarine small units to the Black Sea in 1941 was one of the worst failures in Barbarossa planning. Type II subs, S-boote, M-boote, MFP's etc. could have been brought fairly easily. They did not need to use Dardanelles, but Danube.

as an example the Soviets were able to evacuate their forces from Odessa for subsequent defense of Sevastopol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Odessa_(1941)

not out of the realm of possible that they could have mined around Mykolaiv, prevented the escape of all or parts of the Soviet fleet but especially the escape of all the civilian and unfinished ships?
 
Cart before the horse. No need to consider what the warships were, until someone has looked up how many divisions would need to be used for a successful landing at the other end of the Black Sea and for an inland advance of some 500 kms - from Sochi to Grozny, because Baku, the real prize, is even farther away and you still need to cross the mountains. Majkop is closer to the sea, but then again the Germans took that anyway in OTL.

Once the number of divisions has been estimated, it's time to calculate how many tons of supplies each would need per day, and the sealift that the Bulgarian and Romanian merchant fleets could provide. Taking into account that they were indeed employed in OTL to resupply conventionally advancing Axis forces as they took seaports along that coast, and I suspect there wasn't much extra capacity left.

Then, assuming the capacity exists, we can discuss warships and bombers.
 
Cart before the horse. No need to consider what the warships were, until someone has looked up how many divisions would need to be used for a successful landing at the other end of the Black Sea and for an inland advance of some 500 kms - from Sochi to Grozny, because Baku, the real prize, is even farther away and you still need to cross the mountains. Majkop is closer to the sea, but then again the Germans took that anyway in OTL.

Once the number of divisions has been estimated, it's time to calculate how many tons of supplies each would need per day, and the sealift that the Bulgarian and Romanian merchant fleets could provide. Taking into account that they were indeed employed in OTL to resupply conventionally advancing Axis forces as they took seaports along that coast, and I suspect there wasn't much extra capacity left.

Then, assuming the capacity exists, we can discuss warships and bombers.
Agreed, but before that we need to look at what actually was at Batumi at this point in time? I couldnt find it
 
Cart before the horse. No need to consider what the warships were, until someone has looked up how many divisions would need to be used for a successful landing at the other end of the Black Sea and for an inland advance of some 500 kms - from Sochi to Grozny, because Baku, the real prize, is even farther away and you still need to cross the mountains. Majkop is closer to the sea, but then again the Germans took that anyway in OTL.

Once the number of divisions has been estimated, it's time to calculate how many tons of supplies each would need per day, and the sealift that the Bulgarian and Romanian merchant fleets could provide. Taking into account that they were indeed employed in OTL to resupply conventionally advancing Axis forces as they took seaports along that coast, and I suspect there wasn't much extra capacity left.

tried to confine my comments to the failure of KM to clear the Soviet fleet from the Black Sea, though the LW (mainly) was able to drive them to port, they still proved a threat.

a more robust effort might have stopped the evacuation from Odessa, affected the later struggle for Crimea? the Soviets lost their repair base, damaged ships may be as good as sunk here.

agree with your observations about the oil prize, which seems to me a mirage, something they can only obtain production from by agreement?

*edit* relating to the OP, eliminating the Soviet fleet would be first step for seaborne invasion of the Caucasus (which IMO is not possible), and it would provide benefits in and of itself.
 
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Cart before the horse. No need to consider what the warships were, until someone has looked up how many divisions would need to be used for a successful landing at the other end of the Black Sea and for an inland advance of some 500 kms - from Sochi to Grozny, because Baku, the real prize, is even farther away and you still need to cross the mountains. Majkop is closer to the sea, but then again the Germans took that anyway in OTL.

Once the number of divisions has been estimated, it's time to calculate how many tons of supplies each would need per day, and the sealift that the Bulgarian and Romanian merchant fleets could provide. Taking into account that they were indeed employed in OTL to resupply conventionally advancing Axis forces as they took seaports along that coast, and I suspect there wasn't much extra capacity left.

Then, assuming the capacity exists, we can discuss warships and bombers.
Yes, that is another huge factor. Anywhere from 300 to 500 miles of very rough terrain to cross from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea with few roads worth the name. The number of trucks needed to supply your spearhead would be enormous. And they have to be shipped there and also supplied. It just is not a practical strategy.
 
The Royal Navy would've showed up, whether Turkey liked it or not, and would've obliterated these forces.

I mean they kind of failed disastrously in WW1 when they were free to commit hugely more forces then are free in the relevant period in WW2. Also doesn't trying to send the RN through the straights put them under a severe threat of Axis air attack in the confined waters of the Straits and the Dardanelles?

What was the state of Turkish coastal defenses like in WW2?
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
I mean they kind of failed disastrously in WW1 when they were free to commit hugely more forces then are free in the relevant period in WW2. Also doesn't trying to send the RN through the straights put them under a severe threat of Axis air attack in the confined waters of the Straits and the Dardanelles?

What was the state of Turkish coastal defenses like in WW2?

Agreed - and you should add the RN need to get through the Aegean unscathed before reaching the Straits, assuming the Germans have enough aircraft based in Greece & Bulgaria.
 
So you want to ship a couple of divisions, probably need 30 to 40 transports that are not in the Black Sea, way outside fighter cover, past several Russian bases and 40 available submarines. This makes Crete look good, where 1 convoy managed to deliver 1 dude to a front line unit out of 2000 embarked.

Even proposing this operation for the opening of Barbarossa, Halder will say “we need to destroy the bulk of the Soviet armies west of the Dnieper and Dvina Rivers. Otherwise, the Russians would have time to prepare adequate defenses and mobilize their immense reserves of 15 million men, your plan is... what the ffff?”
 
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