Could the Nazi invasion of France have failed?
- Thread starter xerex
- Start date
Deleted member 1487
I mean it could be drawn out, but short of a catastrophic failure of the LW and Heer they were going to win to a degree; perhaps the French fight on from the colonies or get really lucky and keep Germany north of the Somme, they are in some serious trouble, but so are the Germans compared to OTL.
tenthring
Banned
It's really easy to stop the Germans. OTL everyone expected the Germans to lose. The Wallies had way better armies on paper, and much better resources to draw on in a prolonged conflict.
If they don't make such massive strategic blunders then the Germans would probably get holed up at some point in the campaign. Superior German doctrine probably will allow for some advances, but the sheer weight of material would slow it down to more WWI type warfare. At that point the allies win because they have staying power. Even if the German army doesn't assassinate Hitler (something they might do if the west goes badly) Germany will starve quickly.
If they don't make such massive strategic blunders then the Germans would probably get holed up at some point in the campaign. Superior German doctrine probably will allow for some advances, but the sheer weight of material would slow it down to more WWI type warfare. At that point the allies win because they have staying power. Even if the German army doesn't assassinate Hitler (something they might do if the west goes badly) Germany will starve quickly.
Deleted member 1487
Only if you consider ground force; the decisive factor was airpower and in that Germany was the world leader in 1940. That won them the campaign and literally shattered an entire French army:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_France#Central_front
i remember reading that Hitler panicked during invasion at the speed his armies were moving and repeatedly ordered them to stop, but his field officers ignored him and continued until they ran out of gas. What if they had obeyed ? Could that have given France the breathing room to organize a defense. ?
I read Liddell-Hart's' History of the Second World War that someone in the French Army wanted to chop some of the trees down in the Ardennes Forest and use them as road blocks. He said that blocking the roads would have slowed down the German advance considerably. However, the French officer was overruled because it would stop a counter attack by the French cavalry, which was brushed aside by the Germans.
one year? That's weird, they had 5 months and they know that. The lacked ammo and oil for more. It was a pass/fail game.
The single most critical event is the 2nd rade 55th division at Sedan. You change that or you give them two more days, or you move the French 7th army where it should have been and it's game over for germans: as long as French can hold the river and at least prevent germans for building a bridge, Ardennes are a dead end for them.
The single most critical event is the 2nd rade 55th division at Sedan. You change that or you give them two more days, or you move the French 7th army where it should have been and it's game over for germans: as long as French can hold the river and at least prevent germans for building a bridge, Ardennes are a dead end for them.
Deleted member 1487
Eh, this was done in Norway and the German 75mm howitzer on the Pz IV blew them completely apart; it wouldn't have been all that much of an obstacle if not properly supported; even when they were in Norway German armored columns just blew through them.
A mighty if given the power of the LW; a big reason they weren't able to mount a coordinated counter attack and hold fixed positions was constant aerial interdiction and bombardment.
Save that you're wrong: they hold fixed positions in late may and june (the Weigand line) and understood that a hedgehog defense was effective. They just lacked men to get the right hedgehog density.
As a matter of fact, German planes were not really effective against entrenched infantry (well, none were). You have numerous examples of that. Think for example about Tobrouk or Bir Hakeim. I select them as there were no cover!
As a matter of fact, German planes were not really effective against entrenched infantry (well, none were). You have numerous examples of that. Think for example about Tobrouk or Bir Hakeim. I select them as there were no cover!
Deleted member 1487
Its not just fixed infantry, they need supply; getting reserves and supplies moving behind the lines is what the LW would do, which would enable a break in to be a breakthrough. Also in North Africa there was a tiny fraction of the airpower available that the LW had in 1940 in France.
If fully agree with you save for one think: the LW can try to interdict or to hammer front lines but not both at the same time. It was not equipped for low-level interdiction (you would need jabo for that) nor trained for that.
They could have attacked train lines (probably the best choice) but as always they would have become predictable and easier targets (allowing fixed AA to act). At the same time they would have needed bombers in Sedan. Hard choice and not that obvious.
They could have attacked train lines (probably the best choice) but as always they would have become predictable and easier targets (allowing fixed AA to act). At the same time they would have needed bombers in Sedan. Hard choice and not that obvious.
Deleted member 1487
Hs123 and Ju87 were used for just that and were highly successful at it and breaking the defenses at Sedan:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sedan_(1940)#Luftwaffe_assault
In fact the LW did both in multiple campaigns, which was the major secret to their success. French AAA wasn't that effective in stopping the LW at all and the Bf110 and 109 fighter bombers were strafing trains and interdicting supply lines throughout the campaign; the He111 and Ju88 also did too, both by bombing and using their 20mm nose cannons to shred French trains; in fact that was a key reason French reserves were never able to properly form up, because they were getting shot up on trains and on the march from May onward
Each shell used to clear a tree trunk is one less to use against Frenchmen later.
Any delay allows the slow French Command Loop to catch up, thats what lost battles for them.
Deleted member 1487
Not really like Germany had a shortage of shells; they might have used up an extra couple hundred and I doubt the campaign hinged on that.
As to the French command's loop, that was pretty much beyond saving even with an extra 12 hours saved.
Hs123 and Ju87 were used for just that and were highly successful at it and breaking the defenses at Sedan:
Air attack is mainly effective when used in conjunction with ground forces. The vaunted German Stuka bombardment at Sedan actually did little physical damage, but it terrified the inexperienced French troops, distracted them from stopping the German river crossing, and then left their morale in a fragile state in the following battle, leading to a quick collapse. But had the Stuka attack not immediately been followed up by the ground assault, the French would have rallied their troops, patched up the damage to their equipment, and the bombardment would be remembered as largely ineffective.
Of course, the French probably would have still lost because three highly-trained panzer divisions hitting a single second-rate static division is never really going to end well for the defender...
The key reason French reserves were never able to properly form up was because they did not exist. Pretty much the entire French Army had moved into northern Belgium to counter the German thrust there.
Last edited:
French Reserves...
There's a story about how during the first week of the Battle of France Churchill asked General Gamelin at a meeting '...Où est la masse de manœuvre?...' and being stunned by the reply '...Aucune...'
This was the French army, and they'd left themselves without any strategic reserves...
There's a story about how during the first week of the Battle of France Churchill asked General Gamelin at a meeting '...Où est la masse de manœuvre?...' and being stunned by the reply '...Aucune...'
This was the French army, and they'd left themselves without any strategic reserves...
All the OP is asking for is a failed Fall Gelb, no specifications on how. So, for example, you could make the AdA actually well run by 1940, and have them have respectable sortie rates against the Luftwaffe. In that case, most of Germany's unassailable air advantage goes right out the window.
Alternatively, you could have the Belgians co-operate with the WAllies and integrate themselves into their defensive plans, allowing for troop movements into their territory in September 1939.
Alternatively, you could have the Belgians co-operate with the WAllies and integrate themselves into their defensive plans, allowing for troop movements into their territory in September 1939.