Could the Luxembourg crisis create a Franco-Prussian War in 1867?

As says the title. Is there any way the Luxembourg Crisis could have created a war in 1867? Any ideas how an earlier conflict would have changed the fate of France and Germany?
 
In OTL that was a close call, mostly avoided mostly thanks to both British presion(who grew a little worried about both french adventurism and how prussia become so powerful so quickly), maybe a POD when a prussia or french soldier is killed in the border by an accident, or a luxemburgish cause a similar incident and the whole bomb will explode.

France will suffer similar to OTL, maybe will not loss Alsance-Lorraine(mayne only Alsalce or maybe nothing) but after that is pretty free, maynbe much like otl with some french revanchism

About Prussia, besided that new germany will have Luxemburg as a extra state in the empire, still need more info
 
France will suffer similar to OTL, maybe will not loss Alsance-Lorraine(mayne only Alsalce or maybe nothing) but after that is pretty free, maynbe much like otl with some french revanchism

It would be interesting to see how the diplomatical policies of France would evolve if only Luxembourg is annexed instead of Alsace-Lorraine. Also, with a French defeat in 1867, does it mean that Rome is annexed to Italy earlier as well?

About Prussia, besided that new germany will have Luxemburg as a extra state in the empire, still need more info

I wonder if the Southern German States would be as prone to help the Prussians in this war as they were in 1870.
 
Would in such a war the Netherlands be involved in any way? The Dutch were afraid of it and the entire situation let to a major political reform OTL. An actual war (wether or not they would be involved) would certainly lead to a political crisis in the Netherlands.
 
It could have made a big difference actually. If the conflict broke out in March-April 1867, it probably would not have played out as the Franco-Prussian War did.

In particular, I'm thinking about:
  1. Prussia would have three fewer years to prepare
  2. The North German Confederation was still getting itself together. They wouldn't even have an official constitution until July
  3. What's Austria going to do? They're still smarting from the Austro-Prussian War the year before and thirsting for revenge. Do they stay out or jump into the fray?

Napoleon might cut a quick deal with the Italians to pull out of Rome in exchange for either staying out or possibly entering the war against Prussia.
 
France will suffer similar to OTL, o

Maybe not.

In 1867, the Prussian military reforms derived from the lessons learned in 1866 war won't yet be implmented, while the french military will be the same as otl 1870 (the planned french military reforms were not yet implemented in 1870).

In particular, the new Prussian mobilisation plan will not yet be ready. That has a huge impact as it means the Prussian reservists will not be mobilised quicker than the french ones. As a consequence, the Prussians don't enjoy a two to one numerical advantage over the french professional troops while the french reservist mobilise. This means no such easy victory at the beginning of the war and it means the french troops in the second half of the war are not all green. So the Prussian victory is by no mean ensured and even if it comes is unlikely to be as crushing as otl.
 
Maybe not.

In 1867, the Prussian military reforms derived from the lessons learned in 1866 war won't yet be implmented, while the french military will be the same as otl 1870 (the planned french military reforms were not yet implemented in 1870).

In particular, the new Prussian mobilisation plan will not yet be ready. That has a huge impact as it means the Prussian reservists will not be mobilised quicker than the french ones. As a consequence, the Prussians don't enjoy a two to one numerical advantage over the french professional troops while the french reservist mobilise. This means no such easy victory at the beginning of the war and it means the french troops in the second half of the war are not all green. So the Prussian victory is by no mean ensured and even if it comes is unlikely to be as crushing as otl.

This.

An 1867 war will not be another version of the OTL war. France certainly isn't guaranteed a win, but it will likely be much less one-sided than OTL.
 
This.

An 1867 war will not be another version of the OTL war. France certainly isn't guaranteed a win, but it will likely be much less one-sided than OTL.

A Prussian defeat would be an interesting scenario: imagine all the butterflies it would create for German unification.
 
IMHO a war coming out of the Luxembourg crisis is very unlikely, but should it happen France would be completely isolated: Austria is still licking the wounds of the 1866 war, but even more importantly they have just reached a compromise with the Hungarians who are very much against any new German adventure; the British are as usual very sensitive to sudden changes in the Flanders in particular if it means a French expansion; Russia is not popular at all in Paris or London, and their only friend is Prussia; Italy would not be willing to get in another war, and in any case their goal is Rome which Nappy cannot concede.
In addition Prussian troops are still manning Luxembourg fortress and the French have not yet brought back their Mexican EF.
Note also that the French have produced a limited number of chassepots, but they have not yet been field tested (OTL it happened when Garibaldi tried to force the Roman issue).

Put everything together and it makes a lot of sense to have an European Congress to sort out the Luxembourg crisis. However if this very unlikely war goes hot for whatever reason my money would still be on the Prussians: they have tested their army in two wars in the 1860s (while the French had just a few colonial skirmishes) and the superiority of their organization is still as good in 1867 as it would be in 1870 (btw, the Prussians have a rail link with the Rhinelands, the French don't: this makes quite a difference}
 
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