Could the July Revolution (1830) result in a second republic?

So, the July Revolution of 1830 was the event in France that in the course of three days toppled the Bourbon Restoration, forcing the abdication of Charles X (and his son) and resulted in the innauguration of the Orleanists under Louis-Philippe I.

The French wiki has an interesting article that doesn't appears in any other language, speaking about the "Hesitation of 1830" (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hésitation_de_1830).

Apparently there was a possibility that France might again go back to a republican regime after King Charles X and his son Louis' abdications, as the revolutionaries did not seem concerned about the Count of Chambord (who Charles X had thought would succeed to the throne after his abdication, and, indeed, became the candidate of the Legitimists). Instead, due to the influence of Lafayette and Adolphe Thiers, the republican position was denied and the crown was offered to Louis-Phillipe.

Now, I find this kinda hard, but was it possible that the republican position triumphed? In a very old thread on an unrelated subject (regarding the preservation of the Bourbon regime), one poster suggested that King Charles X could have imprisioned, executed or even exiled Louis-Phillipe on charges of treason (considering that the Duke of Orleans was already popular as an opponent of the Bourbons). Let's suppose for a minute that Louis-Phillipe is indeed taken out of the picture, and the revolutionaries oppose the ascension of the Comte of Chambord.

I think it's too soon to consider a Bonapartist restoration as well, considering that Louis-Napoleon gained more popularity during the 1848 Revolution.

In any event, how would this impact in the international relations? I doubt the great powers would tolerate another revolution, and the Concert of Europe would likely try to restore the Bourbons (again!). Spearheaded by the Austrians, I suppose.

What do you guys think about this?
 
Few things are impossible in Alternate History, I think a return to Republican Government is very unlikely in 1830. After the Revolution, and with the growing unpopularity of the July Monarchy, a sense of betrayal and a myth of Louis Philippe being imposed on the revolutionaries from above contributed to a Republican revival in France (largely a bourgeois affair). The problem is that you don't have many prominent Republican leaders in 1830, really. Radicals like Barbes, Blanqui, and Raspail, and even more middle-class figures like Ledru-Rollin and Lamartine were not pushed into politics until after 1830.

My feeling is that even if you remove Louis Philippe from the picture that coalition of moderates and conservatives coalesce around another compromise candidate.

And yes, probably too early for a Bonapartist revival. Napoleon II was in virtual imprisonment in Austria and the next logical candidate Joseph Bonaparte wasn't the most inspiring. OTL, he refused attempts to make him King of Mexico in 1820.
 
Few things are impossible in Alternate History, I think a return to Republican Government is very unlikely in 1830. After the Revolution, and with the growing unpopularity of the July Monarchy, a sense of betrayal and a myth of Louis Philippe being imposed on the revolutionaries from above contributed to a Republican revival in France (largely a bourgeois affair). The problem is that you don't have many prominent Republican leaders in 1830, really. Radicals like Barbes, Blanqui, and Raspail, and even more middle-class figures like Ledru-Rollin and Lamartine were not pushed into politics until after 1830.

My feeling is that even if you remove Louis Philippe from the picture that coalition of moderates and conservatives coalesce around another compromise candidate.

And yes, probably too early for a Bonapartist revival. Napoleon II was in virtual imprisonment in Austria and the next logical candidate Joseph Bonaparte wasn't the most inspiring. OTL, he refused attempts to make him King of Mexico in 1820.
What about a lack of candidates? Say Louis-Philippe is out of the picture (dead, too ill, married to a commoner...) couldn't you have, like in 1870, a Republic "by default" that ends up staying past its original expiration date? After a while, when it demonstrated it will not be a rule of the mob, it's simply too entrenched to disappear?
 
What about a lack of candidates? Say Louis-Philippe is out of the picture (dead, too ill, married to a commoner...) couldn't you have, like in 1870, a Republic "by default" that ends up staying past its original expiration date? After a while, when it demonstrated it will not be a rule of the mob, it's simply too entrenched to disappear?

OTL, La Fayette was the figurehead of the Republicans. In the event of a dead/reticent Louis-Philippe, he could be persuaded to be the "French Washington" (when asked if he would accept to be president, by his grandson-in-law, he answered "the Duke of Orleans will be King").
 
What about a lack of candidates? Say Louis-Philippe is out of the picture (dead, too ill, married to a commoner...) couldn't you have, like in 1870, a Republic "by default" that ends up staying past its original expiration date? After a while, when it demonstrated it will not be a rule of the mob, it's simply too entrenched to disappear?

Its a possibility, sure, but I can't help feeling that such an ad-hoc Republic would only strengthen a return to monarchy a few years later. OTL early 1830s France was racked by some serious economic and social convulsions, that this POD won't change, and an 1830 republic might find itself using troops against Lyons [as the July Monarchy did] and against radical Paris [as in 1848's June Days]. It will certainly face a nastier and more hostile Vendee revolt in 1832 similar to OTL.

Remember it isn't just about connotations of mob rule that need to be overcome. 1870 was the culmination of decades of a developed republican opposition, and 1848 was nearly twenty years of radicalisation under the Orleanist Regime. There isn't that groundswell in 1830. The guillotine on the Place de Concorde is still a living memory for some in France and outside of it, with all the bloodshed and war that Republicanism entails for people at the time.

What you might see is an interim ''regency'' that stabilises things until a candidate can be offered. Like what happened in Belgium and Greece OTL. You might even see it offered to Leopold instead of Belgium, as he was an acceptable compromise candidate for many of the great powers.
 
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