Could the agreements of 1946 have lasted longer and postponed or forestalled the outbreak of full-scale war in French Indochina? Feel free to suppose any of the French officials on the spot in the region are different from those in OTL [so no need to say, "never with D Argenlieu in charge"] but still must be drawn from the pool of available French officials
The text of the agreements is below, taken from an encyclopedic source. Wherever italics appear, they represent my commentary-
The-Vietnam Agreement of March 6th, 1946
The government of the French Republic, represented by M. Sainteny, a delegate from the High Commissioner of France, properly authorized by Admiral D’Argenlieu, High Commissioner of France, in who resides the sovereign powers of the French Republic, on one part;
And the government of Vietnam, represented by its president, Ho Chi Minh and the special delegate pf the Council of Ministers, M. Vu Hang Khanh, on the other part;
The following has been agreed upon:
- The French government recognizes the Republic of Vietnam as a free state, having its own government, parliament, army and treasury, belonging to the Indo-Chinese Federation and to the French Union.
Concerning the unification of the three ky (Tonkin, Annam And Cochin-China) , the French government binds itself to carry out the decisions taken by the population through a referendum.
- The government of Vietnam declares itself ready to accept amicably the French army when, in conformance with international agreements, it relieves Chinese forces. An annex agreed upon and attached to the present preliminary convention will establish the terms according to which the relief operations will be effected.
- The stipulations formulated above will enter into force immediately. Directly after the exchange of signature, each of the high contracting parties will take all necessary measures to stop hostilities immediately, to keep the military forces in their respective positions and to create the favourable climate necessary to the immediate opening off friendly and frank negotiations.
These negotiations will bear especially on the diplomatic relations of Vietnam with foreign states; the future status of Indo-China; and French economic and cultural interests in Vietnam.
Hanoi, Saigon or Paris may be chosen as the location of the conference.
Done at Hanoi, March 6, 1946
Signed: Sainteny, Ho Chi Minh, Vu Hung Khanh
Annex to the Franco-Vietnam Agreement of March 6th, 1946
Between the High Contracting Parties designated in the preliminary convention, the following is agreed upon:
Firstly, the relief forces will be composed of
[these forces were to relieve departing Chinese Nationalist forces I believe. Their occupation area was Indochina north of the 16th parallel. South of the 16th parallel, the French were already present in strength, and this annex likely did not apply to or restrict a French troop presence south of the 16th parallel]
- 10,000 Vietnamese with their Vietnamese cadres, under military control of Vietnam
- 15,000 French, including the French forces now located in the territories of Vietnam north of the 16th parallel. These elements must be composed solely of French metropolitan origin, except for soldiers guarding Japanese prisoners
These forces, as a whole, will be placed under supreme French command with the assistance of Vietnamese representatives.
The advance, stationing and employment of these forces will be defined during a general staff conference between the representatives of the French and Vietnamese commands, which will be held upon the landing of the French units.
Mixed commissions will be created at all echelons to ensure liaison in a spirit of friendly cooperation between the French and Vietnamese forces.
Secondly, the French elements of the relief forces will be divided in the three categories:
- Units charged with guarding of Japanese prisoners of war will be repatriated, as soon as their mission is completed, following the evacuation of Japanese prisoners, in any event with a maximum delay of 10 months. [French reinforcements handling the Japanese to depart Vietnam north of the 16th parallel by January 1947]
- The units charged with ensuring, in cooperation with the Vietnamese Army, the maintenance of public order and security in Vietnamese territory. Each year a fifth of these troops will be relieved by the Vietnamese Army, this relief will thus be effectively completed after five years. [French occupation troops to be relieved by Viet Minh, in annual decrements of 3,000 - for five years- leading to no French occupation troops in Vietnam north of the 16th parallel by March 1951]
- The units charged with the defense of air and naval bases. The length of the mission entrusted to these units will be defined in the later conferences. [French air and naval base personnel to stay indefinitely pending additional agreements]
Thirdly, in the places where French and Vietnamese forces are stationed, precisely demarcated zones will be assigned to them.
Fourthly, the French government binds itself not to use the Japanese for military purposes.
Done at Hanoi, March 6, 1946
Signed: Sainteny, Ho Chi Minh, Vu Hung Khanh
Franco-Vietnam Modus Vivendi of September 14th, 1946
- Viet-Nam nationals in France, French nationals in Viet-Nam will enjoy the same freedom of “establishment” as nationals, as well as freedom of opinion, of teaching, of commerce, of circulation, and more generally all democratic liberties.
- French property and enterprises in Viet-Nam may not be submitted to a stricter regime than that accorded property and enterprises of Viet-Nam nationals, particularly with regard to taxes and labor legislation. This legal equality will be accorded on a reciprocal basis to the property and enterprises of Viet-Nam nationals in the territories of the French Union.
The status of French property and enterprises in Viet-Nam may only be modified by mutual agreement between the French Republic and the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam.
All French property requisitioned by the Government of Viet-Nam, of which persons or enterprises have been deprived by the Viet-Nam authorities, will be returned to their owners or representatives. A mixed commission will be appointed to set the conditions of this restitution.
- In order to renew cultural relations which France and Viet-Nam are both desirous of developing, French schools of various grades may function freely in Viet-Nam. They will follow official French programs. By special agreement, the necessary buildings will be attributed to these establishments. They will be open to Viet-Nam students.
Scientific research and the establishment and operation of scientific institutes are free in all the terrorist of Viet-Nam for French nationals. Viet-Nam nationals will enjoy the same privileges in France.
The Instut Pasteur will be restored in its rights and property. A mixed commission will settle the conditions under which the Ecole Francais d’Extreme Orient will resume its activity.
- The Government of the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam will call upon French nationals by priority each time it requires advisors, technicians or experts. The priority accorded to French nationals will only cease to operate in case of impossibility on the part of France to furnish the requested personnel.
- As soon as the present problem of monetary harmonisation is solved, a single and identic currency will have legal tender in the territories placed under control of the Government of the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam and in the other territories of Indochina.
This currency id the Indochinese piastre now issued by the Bank of Indochina pending the creation of an issuing institution.
The status of the issuing institution will be studied by a mixed commission in which all the members of the Federation will be represented. This commission will also coordinate currency and exchange. The Indochinese piastre is part of the "zone franc."
- Viet-Nam forms a custom union with the other countries of the Indochinese Federation. Consequently, there will exist no internal customs barriers and the same tariffs will be applied everywhere on entry into and departure from Indochinese territory.
A coordinating committee for customs and foreign commerce, which may furthermore be the same as the committee for currency and exchange, will study the necessary measures of application and will prepare the customs organization of Indochina.
- A mixed coordinating commission for communications will study the necessary measures to re-establish and improve communications between Viet-Nam and the other countries of the Indochinese Federation and of the French Union: overland, maritime, and air transportation; postal, telephonic, telegraphic and radio-electric communications.
- Pending the conclusion by the French Government and the Government of the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam of a definite agreement regulating the question of diplomatic relations between Viet-Nam and foreign countries, a Franco-Viet-Nam mixed commission will set the measures to be taken to assure consular representation of Viet-Nam in neighboring countries and Viet-Nam relations with foreign consuls.
- Anxious to assure as soon as possible in Cochin-China and in southern Annam the restoration of public order necessary both to the free development of democratic liberties and to the resumption of commercial transactions and conscious of the happy effect which the cessation on both sides of all acts of hostility and violence might have in this connection, the French Government and the Government of the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam have decided together on the following measures:
- All acts of hostility and violence on both sides will cease;
- Agreements between French and Viet-Nam general staffs will settle the conditions of application and control of measures decided upon together;
- It is specified that prisoners now held for political reasons will be freed, with the exception of those held for crimes and offenses under common law;
The same will apply to prisoners taken in the course of (military) operations;
Viet-Nam guarantees that no action will be taken and no act of violence will be tolerated against any person because of his attachment of loyalty to France; reciprocally the French Government guarantees that no action will be taken and no act of violence tolerated against any person because of his attachment to Viet-Nam;
- the exercise of democratic liberties defined in Article I will be reciprocally guaranteed;
- unfriendly propaganda on both sides will cease;
- the French Government and the Government of the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam will collaborate to render nationals of ex-enemy countries harmless;
- a person appointed by the Government of the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam and approved by the French Government will be accredited to the High Commissioner to establish the cooperation necessary to execute this agreement.
- The Government of the French Republic and the Government of the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam agree to seek together the conclusion of special agreements on all questions which may arise, in order to strengthen their friendly relations and prepare the way for a general final treaty. The negotiations will be resumed to this end as soon as possible and at the latest in January 1947.
- The dispositions of the present modus vivendi, made in duplicate, will go into effect October 30, 1946.
Done at Paris, September 14, 1946
For the Government of the Democratic Republic of Viet-Nam, The President of the Government,
Signed: Ho Chi Minh
For the Provisional Government of the French Republic The French Minister for Overseas France,
Signed: Marius Moutet