Could the Fenian Raids into Canada been successful?

Though the Fenian Raid of 1866 into Ridgeway, Ontario was a heroic and futile feat of arms, it was doomed to failure, whatever foolhardy objectives they hoped to achieve.

In an alternative scenario, in which the the North American Fenian leadership could have shown a little more strategic insight, they could have coincided their raiding activity with the restive Metis and other Native American tribes in western Canada. This would have required the North American Fenians to established contacts with these tribes, who may or may not have had their sympathy to willingly cooperate with them.

The first Metis rebellion of 1869 was "difficult" to put down due to sheer logistical reasons alone. Please see the following link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolseley_expedition

If the Fenians coordinated their raids to coincide with a future a Metis or Native American revolt, enough British and Canadian troops may have been needed to be diverted westward through rough terrain that could have hindered an effective response to either threat from manpower and logistical restraints. This could have enabled the Fenians to hold out long enough to gain operational momentum and self sustainability and build their pocket of resistance, whatever they were trying to achieve...(a second Irish homeland?)

This would have been less likely to succeed once the Canadians managed to build the Canadian Pacific Railway by 1885. This enabled the Canadians to more effectively mobilize against any threat they faced, internally or externally. The second Metis rebellion, or the Northwest Rebellion, which was more serious, was probably successfully controlled due to effective railroad based mobilizations against the hostile tribes (and better weaponry like the Gatling Gun at Batoche Ferry).

In this case, the Fenians could have responded by sabotaging these vulnerable track based supply lines, and slowing down the logistical capability of the British-Candian forces enough so they could not effectively sustain operations in remote areas. The general strategy would be to spread Canadian forces thin between two attritional insurgent forces working indirectly together.

Brian Ghilliotti
 
How would the Americans respond considering their past issues with Confederate agents based out of Canada launching raids against Union banks and railroads? Might have just happened a few times of course. I think the federal government... Well, it depends who is in charge. Probably going to be one of the long line of Republicans who were generals in the US army during the Civil War, who might still be a bit angry at the New York Draft Riots, where Irishmen (who helped keep up the political machine of Tammany Hall) attacked, murdered, etc African-Americans and Protestant preachers who were abolitionist, plus various Unionists. I can see the posters and slogans now. "St. Patrick drove the snakes from Ireland, and now all the Copperheads are over here." Since the Fenian Raids were about supporting Irish independence, I don't see there really being any way for this to succeed. It seems like it would only make things worse, with Americans angry of Irishmen (in the views of some) refusing to fight for America, but we're fine to embroil them in a war with their northern neighbor so they could get a free Ireland. It may well slow down the integration that got the Irish as being seen as solidly American early on. It would bring in a lot of issues of the 'hyphenated American' controversies earlier as well. I am trying to think of this from the viewpoint of someone back then"
 
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