Under what circumstances would Britain feel the need to bomb the Argentine mainland or perhaps even launch an amphibious invasion? How long could such a war last?
Could the Falklands war have spread to Mainland Argentina?
- Thread starter Emperor Palpatine
- Start date
Best bet is probably the Argentinian attempt to attack British shipping in Gibraltar goes off successfully, widening the scope of the war.
The trick is finding a way in which Britain can effectively attack the Argentine mainland without excessive losses. The proposed SAS raid on the Rio Grande air base was a suicide mission that would just have wrecked the reputation of the unit, and closing to within Harrier range would put the carriers at excessive risk. SBS raids on Argentine naval bases might work, as would an extension of BLACK BUCK.
Alternatively, have the Chileans declare war. This is what the Argentinians were really worried about... it would be ugly, and make the Falklands a bit of a sideshow, but might technically count.
The trick is finding a way in which Britain can effectively attack the Argentine mainland without excessive losses. The proposed SAS raid on the Rio Grande air base was a suicide mission that would just have wrecked the reputation of the unit, and closing to within Harrier range would put the carriers at excessive risk. SBS raids on Argentine naval bases might work, as would an extension of BLACK BUCK.
Alternatively, have the Chileans declare war. This is what the Argentinians were really worried about... it would be ugly, and make the Falklands a bit of a sideshow, but might technically count.
You'd probably need the Argentinians to do something stupid... such as a massacre of a bunch of Falkland civilians at Port Stanley as the British Army closed in on Stanley. Something like that would result in the Falklands falling into British hands like historically happened.... except the UK's necessity & reason for war would continue (to bring the war criminals to justice), and with the fall of the Falklands the UK would rapidly gain the ability to strike directly at Argentina once the RAF gets some bases operational on the islands - you could potentially have the full weight of the RAF thrown against Argentina in such a situation (& supplies and men/material stockpiled on the islands to launch an amphibious operation if needed).
I thought it did spread to the mainland in the sense that there were some British reconnaissance missions around Argentine military bases or maybe they were just planned? It did spread to Europe if I recall correctly in that an Argentine commando team was set to do something at or to the British naval base at Gibraltar but they were arrested by the Spanish police.
Sealion time
I agree. Falkands were right at the geographical limit of what the British armed forces could do operationally. The logistics of the Black Buck raids were ridiculously difficult. The Royal Navy's amphibious landing capability was tied up with the Falklands, never mind Buenos Aires. Armed forces tuned to fight a Soviet invasion of Europe and a war in the North Atlantic simply didn't have the materiel to invade Argentina in any realistic sense. Drop saboteurs to degrade ports and airports in Argentina? Yes, that's relatively straightforward. Embark landing craft en masse to take and hold said ports and airports against counter-attack? No chance. It would be Sealion times 100...
I agree. Falkands were right at the geographical limit of what the British armed forces could do operationally. The logistics of the Black Buck raids were ridiculously difficult. The Royal Navy's amphibious landing capability was tied up with the Falklands, never mind Buenos Aires. Armed forces tuned to fight a Soviet invasion of Europe and a war in the North Atlantic simply didn't have the materiel to invade Argentina in any realistic sense. Drop saboteurs to degrade ports and airports in Argentina? Yes, that's relatively straightforward. Embark landing craft en masse to take and hold said ports and airports against counter-attack? No chance. It would be Sealion times 100...
I don't think so, mainly because it was easy (not a good word, but 'possible' undersells it) for the British to isolate the theatre of battle and contain the fighting there. I struggle to think of a scenario where attacking the mainland would deliver rewards that are commensurate with the risks of such an action.
Maybe as an outside chance one of the carriers is damaged, either the shadow boxing with 25 de Mayo develops into an actual attack or by some fluke an Exocet hits a carrier. But either way given the timeline of vulnerabilities I doubt that these would cripple the British campaign, adjustments could be made and the campaign could carry on rather than lash out at the mainland.
Maybe as an outside chance one of the carriers is damaged, either the shadow boxing with 25 de Mayo develops into an actual attack or by some fluke an Exocet hits a carrier. But either way given the timeline of vulnerabilities I doubt that these would cripple the British campaign, adjustments could be made and the campaign could carry on rather than lash out at the mainland.
I'm no fan of Thatcher or Eighties British foreign or military policy, but no. Raids as others have said, especially if Argentine forces had carried our successful somethings in Europe or Britain then yes, tit for tat stuff.
Admiral Beez
Banned
SAS raids on Argentine airforce bases or even SIS infiltration and assassinations would be certainly doable.
Most likely they will sink argentine naval vessels within the 12 mile limit. otl : Spartan spotted the carrier inside the limit (spartan was outside) could have sank it, but it had orders only to sink only if the carrier went outside.
Oh, and there's operation mikado. if this goes ahead and doesn't totally fail, there's a good chance that some french dassault technicians get killed, which could have interesting effects.
Oh, and there's operation mikado. if this goes ahead and doesn't totally fail, there's a good chance that some french dassault technicians get killed, which could have interesting effects.
Admiral Beez
Banned
What do you think of Argentine submarines striking British warships between Britain and Ascension?
Knoxville Jim
Banned
I have a question. I was really young at the time (10), and the Falklands have never been a huge interest of interest. With that being said, didn't the US act pretty disgraceful during the whole thing? Wasn't Al Haig SOS then? What if the UK got better support from the US and why was America not more disposed to it's special ally? I thought Ron and Maggie were the best of friends.
Ian_W
Banned
Not really - Argentina was also a member in good standing of the 'We Hate Commies' club, and the US seemed to tiptoe the line between two friends pretty well.
Note neither NATO nor the Commonwealth did anything for the UK during the Falklands.
Almost Zero chance. first of all they didnt really think britain would fight.
santa fe was 40 years old, and out of the two 209s, only 1 worked. i don't think the argentines would risk it in that way so far from the theatre of operations. it would also probably run out of fuel on the way home if forced to zig zag regardless of whether it attacks, and it would likely spotted by the nimrods or the victor recon, probably on the surface since its range is severely curtailed if it tries to stay underwater longer during a long trip.
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That turns out not to be the case. The Commonwealth nations at least did something. NZ for example relieved one of the British patrol stations in the Indian Ocean so that those ships could be reassigned.
The way I broadly read US actions was that since they believed that it would be militarily impossible for the UK to mount a successful operation to reclaim the islands they put a lot of effort in to trying to find a diplomatic solution that would allow everyone to save a bit of face. However, when it became clear that the UK would mount an operation to reclaim the islands they got entirely behind their ally with satellite intelligence, AIM-9L's and even (IIRC) the offer of loaning USS Iwo Jima to the RN as a replacement should Invincible or Hermes be put out of the fight.