Could the CSA fight Spain?

Hello everyone. This is my first thread. Now, I have been very interested in the American Civil War for a lone time now, and I wanted to ask you all to debate and discuss a topic I have thought about for a while. Lets say that the Confederacy survives and is still in existence in 1898. A possible war between the CSA and Spain over Cuba and other Spanish possessions in the Caribbean and the Pacific. How could it break out, and who would win?
 
The CSA would win unless the USA intervened then if the CSA is allied with other European powers a very early and unusual great war could possibly break out
 
No, I rather doubt it. The US victory of OTL was by an amazingly narrow margin from a state far richer and stronger and stabler than any 1890s Confederacy would be. Gringoes from Alabama and Virginia invade Cuba, Spain boots them out on their sorry asses in a flop that makes the OTL Bay of Pigs look like a model of planning and execution.
 
Depends on your scenario for a Confederate victory over the USA. If more states had joined them than a victory is possible.
 
Depends on your scenario for a Confederate victory over the USA. If more states had joined them than a victory is possible.
Well, lets say that in addition to the original CSA, they also have Kentucky, Missouri, Indian Territory, Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of southern Nevada and California.
 
The war itself could be a divisive issue, resulting in the fragmentation of the Confederacy. The CSA's chances of winning are very low. If they keep pace with the Union they'll have a navy less than 1/3rd the size of OTL's Spanish-American War. And considering they started with no real navy and minimal industrial capability, the CSA Navy probably won't even be that large.

If they even make it to Cuba, the Confederacy will find a determined people that spent decades fighting for independence at a horrific cost, plus a variety of exciting tropical diseases. A Confederate 'victory' could take decades and would cost them hundreds of thousands of lives.
 
Well, lets say that in addition to the original CSA, they also have Kentucky, Missouri, Indian Territory, Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of southern Nevada and California.
Considering they had zero success at taking and keeping Union territory in OTL, that's ASB. They'd be lucky to keep all of Arkansas and and Tennessee.
 
Considering they had zero success at taking and keeping Union territory in OTL, that's ASB. They'd be lucky to keep all of Arkansas and and Tennessee.
Pretty much, unless ASBs keep handing the USA the idiot ball or give the CSA heavy machine guns there is no way they are getting all that.
 
Pretty much, unless ASBs keep handing the USA the idiot ball or give the CSA heavy machine guns there is no way they are getting all that.
The point of this thread is not to discuss how they got that territory, it is to discuss how they would fare in a war with Spain.
 
The point of this thread is not to discuss how they got that territory, it is to discuss how they would fare in a war with Spain.
Rather badly when it comes to naval projection. An independent CSA would have real issue with trade fleet, let alone military one.

Granted, they made some ingenious use of new features. But lacking industrial background and strategical harbours worth of mention except New Orleans, they wouldn't be able to have even 1/10 of USA capacity of projection in 1898.

What it means, it's fewer troops, not really experienced in amphibious attacks. At the very last, Spanish/CSA war would end in a draw, regardless of what can happen in Spanish territories (revolts, logistic help, etc.)
 
No, I rather doubt it. The US victory of OTL was by an amazingly narrow margin from a state far richer and stronger and stabler than any 1890s Confederacy would be. Gringoes from Alabama and Virginia invade Cuba, Spain boots them out on their sorry asses in a flop that makes the OTL Bay of Pigs look like a model of planning and execution.
What would be even more embarrassing is a counter-invasion from Spain. Say the scenario is changed to CS forces attempting to "liberate" Cuba from Spain, and they launch their navy. The Spanish repel them and follow them back to their own territory, landing in Florida or even in Texas. How well would the Spanish army have fared against the CS Army?
 
What would be even more embarrassing is a counter-invasion from Spain. Say the scenario is changed to CS forces attempting to "liberate" Cuba from Spain, and they launch their navy. The Spanish repel them and follow them back to their own territory, landing in Florida or even in Texas. How well would the Spanish army have fared against the CS Army?
Very, very well.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I could see the Spanish fleet wreaking havoc upon the Confederate coastline. Galveston, New Orleans, Mobile, Tampa, even Charleston may be raided.

How large was the Cuban population of Florida by the 1890s? Because I could see the Confederates coopting them for the Cuban invasion, sorta like the Exiles in OTL.
 
In a war? Due to the lack of a serious navy and likely infighting among CSA states, it's very likely the CSA would get thier butts handed to them. Any invasion of the island is likely to end up like the Bay of Pigs, and any occupation will look like Vietnam seventy years early.

Could they buy Cuba? maybe.
 
To what extent is very, very well? Say they landed in Florida. How far would they have gotten before the CS could push them back. Could the CS push them back?
To a point where a relatively small Spanish force kicks the ass of rather larger CS forces well. If we factor in how unprepared for battle the 1890s *US* army is and speculate on what 30 years of slave patrols and garrison duty does to the CS Army......:eek::eek:
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I could see Spain being able to take New Orleans and hold onto it for a while. Same goes for southern Florida and the Mississippi/Alabama coast.
 
Despite all that I don't see the Spanish holding large areas of the CSA for long. Their logistical capabilities are nothing to write home about and it a long way back to Spain. Could they raid? Sure Hold large areas on the continent itself? No
 
To what extent is very, very well? Say they landed in Florida. How far would they have gotten before the CS could push them back. Could the CS push them back?
What I'd like to know is, if the CSA couldn't push them out, what happens next?

If Spain gives it back, wouldn't that kind of defeat the purpose of invading in the first place? If they never intended to keep the territory, why would they need to invade? The CSA threat would have been neutralized, so there would be no reason to invade other than for land-grabbing, IMO.

If the Spanish did keep what they conquered, it would put the USA in a really awkward position. On the one hand, it would have to enforce the Monroe Doctrine and have Spain leave (with force if necessary). However, doing this would lead them to help their #1 enemy! I would presume that the US would invade and keep the territory themselves, but I'm not sure what the CSA would think of that.
 
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