Could the crusader states survived?

Fine, Then how about Finland, It was after all part of the swedish crusades.

This is debatable. There are indications that Christianity came to Finland quite some time before the alleged Swedish "crusades" (it is debatable if those treks were in fact "crusades" or not). Christianity came to Finland probably through commercial routes, with foreign traders and such. The earliest Christian influences maybe came from the Eastern Orthodox Christianity.
 
Oh, I think there are certain possibilities. For a start long-term survival does not depend on any of the factors existing at the time of their demise - they need only ensure short-term survival, for this to then mean a chance for later long-term survival. For example, if they can survive long enough for a strong Sicily to become a serious power in the Eastern Mediterranean, then that's one possibility. This affects things, obviously, and it may well be that we're looking at a 14th-15th century HOHENSTAUFEN Sicily.

or

The Fourth Crusade if it had been better supported would have gone to Egypt, and success there would have established a more defensible stronghold than in the Holy Land, and somewhere from which to build up forces and slowly push back

One intriguing note was shortly before the last years of Jerusalem, there was a moment on campaign when someone whose name escapes me considered a march on Mecca. It would be interesting to see how a lightning strike and withdrawal would have affected things

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Actually, Egypt is not defensible at all. It's only real defense is having a strong army and navy. Also, I'm not sure how it would be a base for a Crusader state - it would take enormous resources to keep it occupied as its population would be extremely unwilling and hostile.

As I see it, there are two large problems with the idea of lasting Crusader states in themselves, and a larger third problem.

- There are no European states with sufficient power and proximity to "fuel" a conquest of the Levant.

- There is a potential state with sufficient proximity and potentially enough power to do so given a suitable POD: The Byzantines - but they would not support creation of Latin Crusader states, they would recover the area themselves.

The larger problem is that no stronger power can ever invade the Levant for this to work. No Mongols, no Turks, etc. As a small and weak state, a Crusader polity will be swept away never to return the first time an army overthrows it. It's simply the fate of a state run by a small alien minority.
 
Re-reading the whole chapter ties my thread about crusaders crossing Anatolia and the survival of Outremer together.

Strategically, Outremer needed to break the continuity of the fertile crescent beyond the coastal plain. The only time this was attempted was when the remnants of the 2nd crusade tried to capture Damascus, but of course of the 2 big armies which left Constantinople only a damaged shell ever reached Outremer so the attempt failed.

So WI the Crusaders of 1101 and 2nd crusade crossed Anatolia successfully? The 1101 could have provided the forces to push out the boundaries of Outremer quickly and effectively in the earliest days. The 2nd Crusade could have provided the attempt at capturing Damascus in 1148 with a large, powerful army? Would the capture of Damascus and the subsequent long term splitting of the Islamic strongholds allow Outremer to survive, if not into modern times for at least many more years?

How do you cross Anatolia successfully? It's mountainous and parts of it are on the arid side, plus its occupied by a rather powerful Seljuk state.

The problem with all these scenarios is that it depends on the Muslims of the area to do nothing to deal with invading forces.

It seems to me that the Crusaders were a LOT more successful than one would have expected them to be as it is.
 
AHP, not only is it mountainous and arid but the Turks created a dead zone between the Byzantine border and their own heartlands which made it worse from that angle. Combined with the Turks own fighting style and the Crusaders stupidity its not surprising the both 1101 and 2nd crusade came to grief in Anatolia. However the 1st and 3rd crusade crossed reasonably successfully, so it can be done. The Turks learned from their experiences with transiting crusaders, I wonder what are the possibilities arising from the crusaders learning from experience as well. What I'm thinking is crusaders carrying more supplies after hearing about the privations of the 1st crusade, and choosing the best route on the advice of 1st crusaders and Byzantines. Also perhaps using the pilgrims as labour to fortify laagers when the Turks threatened, in order to minimise losses and give the crusader cavalry an anvil to hammer against. A victory like Doryleaum could give a crusade much needed breathing space to make a fast transit.

I've been reading about Egypt, and the three invasion routes to get to Ciaro to get a stranglehold on the country. If an army goes from Alexandria it has a good base but faces a longish marcha cross the desert only to arrive on the wrong side of the Nile from Cairo, not awesome. If going through the delta all the river and canal crossings are very easy ways for a defending army to stop an invasion, 2 crusades into egypt were stopped this way I think. Going through modern Port Said ois a short march direct to Cairo itself, but there is no way a base of operations could be set up on that shore which make that idea difficult. If an army can work around those problems capturing Egypt is easy enough, but holding it is another thing entirely.

'Holding it' is a major point about Outremer, Oman calls Edessa an Armenian state where the warlike locals filled out the ranks of the Franks army. But the Syrians of Outremer proper were not warlike and didn't beef up the army so Outremer had to rely on imports and the odd crusade for manpower, which is untennable. This is where my little mental fantasy of 1101 and 2nd crusades reaching Outremer intact and exapanding it, capturing Damascus, falls flat. Unless the crusaders can fill the ranks of their army with local christians Outremer is ultimately untennable.
 
Top