Could the Bosnian Annexation Crisis have led to another war TTL?

After a very close "defeat" that looks in some ways like a victory for Russia in the Russo-Japanese War in the following timeline
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=158432

By the end of the war, Japan lost all of the Kurile Islands and Sakhalin Island to Russia, and was barely able at the end to claim a “victory” in the war in the peace negotiations as they'd kept their gains in Korea. The Treaty of Portsmouth ended the Russo-Japanese War. Russia received Sakhalin Island, the Kurile Islands and all islands north of Hokkaido. Russian sphere of influence over Manchuria is recognised by Japan, and Japan agrees to evacuate Korea. All Japanese businesses and government officials leave Korea. It seems that Japan "won" the war but lost in the post-war diplomatic bargaining.

Austria annexes Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908 (as in OTL) under the assumption that Russia having just recently fought a war and "lost", and suffering persistent unrest (despite no Revolution of 1905, and perhaps exacerbated by the lack of any concessions for the Russian people such as the Duma) would be weaker.

But what would Russia do in such circumstances? Russia actually gained while losing, but their Far East interests are also likely distracting them. They might have problems in the Manchurian territories, and worries about Japan in the near future trying again. However, they also might not be as weak as they're perceived by Austria.
 
The Bosnian Annexation had been negotiated between Austro-Hungarian foreign minister Aehrenthal and his Russian colleague Isvolsky. The Russians had pretty much 'sold out' the Serbs to the Austrians in this process.
Only when the annexation actually happened, it was coupled with Bulgaria, the - until then - darling of Russia, declaring independence and 'betraying' Russia, while at the same time the Russians had to realise that the agreed Austro-Hungarian return service was worthless for them.
So, the annexation had nothing to do with Austria believing in Russian weakness, but simply exploiting Russian stupidity.
And the 'sinister' German threat, which finally ended the crisis, was to stop hindering Austria from publishing documents, which showed how Russia had sold out Serbia.

The OTL outcome of the war in Far East turned Russian attention to the Balkans, in a scenario where they were successful in Far East, their attention to Balkans affairs would perhaps be much reduced.
 
Okay, I'm just going by what some other conventional sources say - which aren't particularly good, I suppose. So, according to what you mention, the annexation probably would've happened regardless.

From what I understand of the situation with Bulgaria, wouldn't there have been a declaration of independence anyway? The Bulgarian Tsar seems the kind to do that.

The German blackmail is amusing.

Perhaps with Russia's attention turned more eastward, they're clumsier in the diplomatic wrangle.

What do you believe is the likely effect on the political/social unrest in Russia? Would it be worse?
 
The Annexation Crisis had several aspects:
- The Ottoman Empire, already in turmoil because of the Young Turk Revolution was further weakened by the official loss of Bosnia and Bulgaria, but finally could be bought out by Austria. Nevertheless, the European parts of the Empire were now compromised - and the starting signal for reducing them had been given.
- The Bulgarians would have declared independece anyway, but the timing had been co-ordinated with Austria for maximum effect.
- The Russians soon found out that the Austrian assent to free Russian passage through the Bosporus Straight was worthless, as long as Turkey and Great Britain didn't agree.

A Russia victorious in Far East most probably wouldn't have seen the revolution of 1905 - and would have been busy in Manchuria. Thus, Pan-Slavism and Neo-Slavism wouldn't have been as strong as IOTL. The drive for the Bosporus Straight would, however, been there anyway, about one third of Russia exports went that way.
 
The main problem of the bosnian annexion comes from the west rather than the east.
According to the Triplice Alliance clauses, to any enlargement of Austria should correspond an equal enlargement of italy.
with Austria grabbing Sarajevo, Italy hoped for Trieste.
They were proposed Valona, refused it indignantly and the Triplice Alliance was about to scumble
 
Neither were the Germans pleased by the Annexation, which rather took them by surprise. After all, the Austrians had almost started a world war without previously only consulting their allies.
Although Germany finally backed Austria, this was not very popular and Chancellor von Bülow's 'Nibelungentreue' found many enemies.
 
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