Could the Axis invade Cyprus?

In my TL Greece will stay neutral, axis-friendly. So, could the German-Italian forces capture Cyprus from the British, preferably at high price? I believe they would attack from the Italian-controlled Rhodes Island, but it seems a bit far to Cyprus.
 

b12ox

Banned
In my TL Greece will stay neutral, axis-friendly. So, could the German-Italian forces capture Cyprus from the British, preferably at high price? I believe they would attack from the Italian-controlled Rhodes Island, but it seems a bit far to Cyprus.
The Italians couln't, the germans had no time for that.
 
I'm just wondering...but what was the state of Vichy forces in Syria at this time? Could they possibly have participated as the main invasion force, with a Greek vessels "loaned" to Germany and some Italian naval support? Depending on when this happens (or with a successful Malta), the Italian naval forces might be in a much better state and could support the strike.

However, that does bring up a curious problem of sorts - does Inonu have enough reason, even with Iskenderun given by Vichy Syria to Turkey for neutrality to stand by idly as his fellow Turks (admittedly Cypriot Turks, but Turks nonetheless) die defending their island? And if he does join in, are the Turks in any sort of position to actually be useful, or are they just a ball and chain around the Allies, much as they (arguably) were for the Central Powers in WWII?

Sadly, this seems incredibly unlikely, to say the least, since for the Cyprus expedition, as you seem to be formulating it, to succeed you'd need Vichy, Italy, and Greece to all do most of the heavy lifting for it to work. But any such overt motions there in the Eastern Med will probably bring Turkey in as an Ally, as I mentioned...and that pretty much automatically writes off Vichy Syria, and then also opens up a land front with both Bulgaria and Greece, one which, provided the Turks can hold their own on will probably cause even more problems for the Germans and Italians, even more than the OTL Italian Front did. And this means an even weaker Italy as it diverts forces into that area to help augment the German reinforcements. This makes Italy an even more inviting prospect to invade. That's two fronts there. Depending on the timing of the attack, the Soviets might get involved, joining in on the Axis-hammering, if only to be able to spread Communism through the restructuring of the liberated governments, but they might be less cooperative than OTL, given the Allied interest in the Balkans and the perceived threat to the Caucasus. Regaardless, that's three fronts for Germany now, by late '43 or '44, depending upon the pace of strategic operations. Oh, and of course the 'necessary' Western front...so that brings it up to four, five, depending on how quickly the Allies decide to close off North Africa (they might just leave it open to necessitate the Axis to divert resources to the south).

In short, everyone will be stretched very thin in whatever happens, which is not a good thing for any of the powers involved...but is even worse for a Germany that is quickly finding itself overwhelmed on all sides except the north (but depending upon Finland, a general sweep by the Soviets through Norway isn't out of the question, I suppose, if the Western Allies ask for yet another opening), and whose allies are of minimal use when overwhelmed like this, and whose shortcomings are exacerbated by the crisis facing them.

Thus, provided everyone's a rational actor, Cyprus is a no-go, unless somehow Turkey comes into the Axis fold as well and the brief Allied campaign into Syria is either postponed indefinitely (or, better yet, fails). But of course, Hitler wasn't exactly known for being the most rational of actors, especially when he got exceedingly preoccupied with an idea.
 
I'm just wondering...but what was the state of Vichy forces in Syria at this time? Could they possibly have participated as the main invasion force, with a Greek vessels "loaned" to Germany and some Italian naval support? Depending on when this happens (or with a successful Malta), the Italian naval forces might be in a much better state and could support the strike.

However, that does bring up a curious problem of sorts - does Inonu have enough reason, even with Iskenderun given by Vichy Syria to Turkey for neutrality to stand by idly as his fellow Turks (admittedly Cypriot Turks, but Turks nonetheless) die defending their island? And if he does join in, are the Turks in any sort of position to actually be useful, or are they just a ball and chain around the Allies, much as they (arguably) were for the Central Powers in WWII?

Sadly, this seems incredibly unlikely, to say the least, since for the Cyprus expedition, as you seem to be formulating it, to succeed you'd need Vichy, Italy, and Greece to all do most of the heavy lifting for it to work. But any such overt motions there in the Eastern Med will probably bring Turkey in as an Ally, as I mentioned...and that pretty much automatically writes off Vichy Syria, and then also opens up a land front with both Bulgaria and Greece, one which, provided the Turks can hold their own on will probably cause even more problems for the Germans and Italians, even more than the OTL Italian Front did. And this means an even weaker Italy as it diverts forces into that area to help augment the German reinforcements. This makes Italy an even more inviting prospect to invade. That's two fronts there. Depending on the timing of the attack, the Soviets might get involved, joining in on the Axis-hammering, if only to be able to spread Communism through the restructuring of the liberated governments, but they might be less cooperative than OTL, given the Allied interest in the Balkans and the perceived threat to the Caucasus. Regaardless, that's three fronts for Germany now, by late '43 or '44, depending upon the pace of strategic operations. Oh, and of course the 'necessary' Western front...so that brings it up to four, five, depending on how quickly the Allies decide to close off North Africa (they might just leave it open to necessitate the Axis to divert resources to the south).

In short, everyone will be stretched very thin in whatever happens, which is not a good thing for any of the powers involved...but is even worse for a Germany that is quickly finding itself overwhelmed on all sides except the north (but depending upon Finland, a general sweep by the Soviets through Norway isn't out of the question, I suppose, if the Western Allies ask for yet another opening), and whose allies are of minimal use when overwhelmed like this, and whose shortcomings are exacerbated by the crisis facing them.

Thus, provided everyone's a rational actor, Cyprus is a no-go, unless somehow Turkey comes into the Axis fold as well and the brief Allied campaign into Syria is either postponed indefinitely (or, better yet, fails). But of course, Hitler wasn't exactly known for being the most rational of actors, especially when he got exceedingly preoccupied with an idea.
Pulling Turkey in the war what I'm trying to do - but as it seems unlikely I guess i'll have to find something else. Petain will not intervene, he never wanted to attack the British, and there were too few men in Syria to defend the place and invade Cyprus at the same time. Greece also wanted to stay neutral, though I guess I could change that if the Axis promised them Cyprus. But then there is Mussolini and his dreams to recreate the Roman Empire...
 
In my TL Greece will stay neutral, axis-friendly. So, could the German-Italian forces capture Cyprus from the British, preferably at high price? I believe they would attack from the Italian-controlled Rhodes Island, but it seems a bit far to Cyprus.

Such an operation would be highly risky, and would most likely fail. Highly risky operations don't get approved unless people are desperate and the potential gains far outway the cost of failure. I don't see the benefit of holding Cyprus unless Germany is pursuing a Mediterranean focused strategy.

Building up Rhodes to support a Cyprus invasion is difficult enough in face of British control of the sea, actually invading Cyprus is even harder.

I don't see it being done.

Also a Greece not at war with Italy means British troops are never diverted there, which means Britain likely pushes the Axis out of north Africa by March 1941. The entire Mediterranean theatre will be going in favor of the Allies. Sicily or Sardinia are likely invaded before end of 1941. Any decision to invade Cyprus is going to be cancelled by this time.
 

Esopo

Banned
Yes, theorically the axis could try to invade cyprus, as it could invade malta. But that obviously will need a different course of the war, and a stronger german effort in the mediterranean, which requires no barbarossa, which requires a different hitler.
 
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