I have seen multiple sources saying he did have a break down, and the logs could just as easily be faked as the breakdown sources. In either case, Stalin could have easily taken a bullet to the head for the betterment of the USSR either due to his military failures or his breakdown.
True. He
almost brokedown.
But the politbuero was more afraid of what to do without him, then with him. Stalin fully expected to be removed from his position after he got the news that the Germans were crossing the boarder, partly because he'd been telling everyone they wouldn't!
Its a pivot point in history, and without Stalin you have no 'Iron Man' to see the Soviet Union through those times. The Wehrmacht would have done better, and might have bagged Moscow and gone futher before the war turned, but how the backdoor politics play out in the Soviet High command is unknown....all we can say with much certainty is that the Russians may have taken another 6 months to a year to get things turned around, and there won't be a load of '43 strategic blunders.
On the otherhand, White Russia could have imploded, and the whole political system fall apart leaving another 'civil war' without any central authority or figurehead.
This is the 'best' the Germans could ever get without things being ASB.
Even then, they are left with their version of Japans China, they have a vast Russian front and area full of partisan activity and an active war front there they must still fight for the forseeable future even if those fighting don't have much central control and coordination.
While I agree nominally with Snakefeatherson and that other poster with the name beginning with S... I do not paint the picture as black and white the Germans 'never had a hope in hell' there could have been tipping points that came down differently causing a myriad of different outcomes.
Some of those would not grant too hard a stretch of an imagination to various forms of 'won' claims being made.
Rather, I say there is the chance, but its slim.