Could the An Shi Rebellion succeed?

The An Shi rebellion went on for a decade and even managed to capture the Chinese capital, but eventually collapsed because the Tang could wait them out and the Yan dynasty imploded, could the Yan have succeeded and what may have happened after?
 
If Yan succeded, it would just be remembered as the An Rebellion. Shi's rise to power is already too late for success. An Lushan needs to stay in Chang'an yet take the Yangzi, at the very least. It still might not be enough.
 
That An Shi personally exploded mentally was a problem as well.
Shi (Siming) was fine. But An Lushan's mental and physical issues would pose a challenge.

If it succeeded, we could see a Tibet-wank.
But would it? A Yan victory would help Tibet since China would be incredibly weakened. But an extensive Tibetan occupation could also draw Tibet into an occupation of parts of China Proper that might divert Tibet's resources and also weaken its hand against enemies like the Abbasids.
 
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