Could Thatcher have had a 4th term?

Could Thatcher have had a 4th term


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So let's say Thatcher beats Heseltine and goes on to lead the Tories to the next general election. What would happen? Could she win or lose?
 
I dont know, she was pretty unpopular with the pool tax and the like, so I'd say "unfortunately no", although I guess she might have won a khaki election after the Gulf War, provided she backed down on things like the poll tax. I cant really see her doing that though. Personally I would probably just have had yes/no/dont know as answers, the way your poll is atm is, IMHO, more likely to provoke political arguments rather than just objective analysis of history
 
I dont know, she was pretty unpopular with the pool tax and the like, so I'd say "unfortunately no", although I guess she might have won a khaki election after the Gulf War, provided she backed down on things like the poll tax. I cant really see her doing that though. Personally I would probably just have had yes/no/dont know as answers, the way your poll is atm is, IMHO, more likely to provoke political arguments rather than just objective analysis of history

That's what I was trying to avoid.:(
 
Damn, wrong option. I thought that option meant that I felt it was unfortunate that the majority was reduced. :eek:

In any case, yes, if she calls a khaki election then she'll scrape through like Major did in 1992. However the poll tax has to go, and someone will have to convince her of this. Repeal and replace with something less controversial.
 
If she only narrowly avoids defeat from Heseltine, I can see someone like Major offering to dump the ERM in exchange for Thatcher dumping the Community Charge- or, at least, adopting a watered down version of it. If she does that, a fourth term is not out of the question, but it's unlikely. The best case for the Conservative Party in general is probably a defeat, followed by a return to power around 2000.
 
Damn, wrong option. I thought that option meant that I felt it was unfortunate that the majority was reduced. :eek:

In any case, yes, if she calls a khaki election then she'll scrape through like Major did in 1992. However the poll tax has to go, and someone will have to convince her of this. Repeal and replace with something less controversial.

Thought you went to the dark BNP side of the right for a second there RB. ;)
 
If she only narrowly avoids defeat from Heseltine, I can see someone like Major offering to dump the ERM in exchange for Thatcher dumping the Community Charge- or, at least, adopting a watered down version of it. If she does that, a fourth term is not out of the question, but it's unlikely. The best case for the Conservative Party in general is probably a defeat, followed by a return to power around 2000.

This also butterflies Old Lab. She'll be losing to Kinnock of all people, hardly a worthy adversary. At this time was Lab's manifesto closer to 1987 or 1992 in being somewhat in the real world on defence? Of course, she was right about the ERM, and I could see her compromising on this issue. If the UK is still in ERM by September 1992 without a voluntary withdrawal whoever is in power will have their 1997 death warrant pre-printed awaiting signature by the voters. WIthout joining, there's little problem, however by 1997 after 18 years there will be a Labour government.
 
Is it likely that Thatcher would scrap the poll tax? As much as we'd all love her to come to her senses and scrap it, and go on to fantastic victory at the polls (well, some of us anyway), it doesnt really seem to fit in with her style. Would Thatcher serve a full 4th term? If she doesnt, she'll be the only PM to ever win 4 elections and not be defeated, whilst personally I think it would be tragic to see her inevitable loss to Labour in 1997
 
I broke the tie :D

I think she could have won. Even though her approval rating was not great, the public probably would like her better than an anti-incumbent.
 

Tovarich

Banned
I don't know if there's an option for me to vote for here, because I reckon the Tories would have gone down in flames had she fought a fourth election, which would've made me very happy indeed!
By the time she was deposed she was losing her grip on reality, lecturing and nagging the electorate as if they were irrelevant and she had a divine right to rule (and for once I'm not making a special dig at her, this happens to everyone in power with no real challenges for too long).

Can't see a khaki-election working either, GW1 was not the jingoistic blood-letting exercise that the Falklands were. At no time was there a patriotic fervour in the country, and rather more a feeling that 'our boys' were being sent to aid regimes that were pretty corrupt and despotic (Kuwait and Saudi) for no better reason than to protect America's oil supply.
 
I'm not sure why people are so obsessed with this question. Even assuming that she does get a fourth term, it's going to be on precisely the sort of majority (or lower) that Major got. And as we all know, that did wonders for both Major's reputation and the Tories in 1997.

But there's really no objective reason to believe she could have won anyway. Unlike Major she'll be saddled with her own personal unpopularity, mass division in her own party, and, crucially, the Poll Tax. Talk of a 'Khaki' election misses the point; (Quite apart from the wonderful precedent of 1945) Gulf greatly boosted Major's personal standing but did effectively nothing for the Tories' poll ratings. My suspicion is that some of the ground will be made up during the campaign, but it'll be a heavy defeat for the Tories nonetheless. Not anywhere near 1997 level, but heavy.

Going when she did, and in the manner when she did, left her reputation on an infinetley higher footing than it would have been left at had she won the leadership ballot; undefeated in an election and with her legacy intact.
 
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There are at least two other options, and those are:

Hung Parliament
Conservatives largest party - short of an overall majority
Labour largest party - short of an overall majority

I think EITHER of those is more likely than the options polled. I think Con largest party, hung parliament is the most likely, but then Labour + Lib Dems form a coalition to get her out.

So she's gone. Probably.....
 

Tovarich

Banned
Talk of a 'Khaki' election misses the point; (Quite apart from the wonderful precedent of 1945) Gulf greatly boosted Major's personal standing but did effectively nothing for the Tories' poll ratings....

I still maintain it was not GW1 per se which gave him a (little) personal boost, but his refusal to celebrate by having a 'victory parade', unlike his predecessor who....well, Denis Healy put it far better than anyone else ever did:
Denis Healy said:
Margaret Thatcher is wrapping herself in a Union Jack and exploiting the services of our soldiers, sailors and airmen and hoping to get away with it. The Prime Minister who glories in slaughter is at this very moment lending the military dictatorship in Buenos Aires millions of pounds to buy weapons, including weapons made in Britain, to kill British servicemen with, and that is an act of stupefying hypocrisy.
 

Tovarich

Banned
Why didn't this poll include a "Blame Thande" option? I thought that was Forum-mandated.:D

At first I was going to post that Thande was still in primary school at the time, and scarcely can be blamed here....but then I imagined the 8-yr old Thande stood on a bleak Yorkshire moor, with a thunderstorm raging around him & lightning blasting oak trees (the 'Old Spice' music playing in the background) like Damien in 'The Omen', and thought: "Yeah, I can see that....it should be an option!" :D
 
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