Could Sweden Stay A Major Power?

Is their any realistic way that Sweden could have stayed the major power that it was during the mid 17th century? Not to modern day of course, but enough to where Prussia and Russia don't become major powers until the 19th century.
 
Long term it does not have the population numbers to really keep up. Even if by some miracle it manages to pull of an endless string of military successes and holds on to all its conquests, strategically it won't be able to recover as quickly as its opponents and will eventually fatally exhaust itself.
 
It made itself off structural innovation so let's play around a little

Charles V succeeds at Copenhagen, bringing Denmark into union and imposing the Swedish system (essentially scrape the country bare for a regimented army, strong kings who tax a lot with competent ministers)

Polish campaign results in East Prussia and North Poland, as intended, being rowdy vassals, and eventually the magnates there are exterminated, but these areas are hard to put into the Swedish system.

Victories against Russia and incorporation of bits of Northern Germany, takeover of some bits of Northern Russia, also Poland-style vassals.

Swedish King probably fights Saxony or someone and is voted in as King of Poland in a bismarck-style "I smashed the competition, not just beat them" moment. The Polish nobles follow strength and make him King of this loose Kingdom.

That's the most I can imagine without overextension. The result is the Swedish "core" with its system is three times stronger with bits of Germany, plus a Scandinavian union. Russian and Polish territories are backwards and too decentralized to use it on, just buffers.

Sweden would play the Prussia of the age, but never unify Germany.
 
The 'population' problem is something that's hard to avoid, yet I believe it all depends what kind of great power you want Sweden to become. Snatching up Finland would give it a nice buffer towards Russia, though you'll have to keep Russia weak to avoid Finland being retaken.

Russia really is the elephant in the room, as it did not wish a powerful Sweden. Maybe an 'Ottoman' Russia in constant, slow decline, with a powerful, possibly westernized Ottoman Empire to grab at the heels of the weakening giant? The Ukrainians go for Ottoman support for their independence rather than Russian, Ottoman Empire successfully keeps their Russian enemies at bay. A Swedish-Ottoman (and maybe -Prussian or -Austrian?) Alliance aimed at keeping Russia weak would go a long way to avoid that kind of competition.

Or just have the Russians never unite, Moscow never gets a chance a greatness and its all small dukedoms and unexplored 'wilderness'.

With Russia somehow taken care of, the Swedes will dominate Scandinavia. Norway and Finland are obvious targets, Denmark isn't really important for anything more than control over the Oresund strait. And that kind of control won't matter too much if the Swedes can take Norway and use Oslo/Christiania as a port towards the rest of the western world. Good Norwegian timber will give a nice export boost.

With a population of some 10 million and lots of timber for ships, good iron for cannon Sweden could potentially match the Dutch trading success. An alliance with Great Britain or France, or an armed neutrality to avoid colonial conflict between it and the great powers? Being the third rate power, allowed to take what the Great Powers don't want or can't decide how to share, wouldn't be all bad.

That is an economic powerhouse right there. It probably won't win a lot of great military victories or become a hugely influential mover and shaker of the world. A comfy economic power with a nice military to back it up isn't shabby either.
 
The 'population' problem is something that's hard to avoid, yet I believe it all depends what kind of great power you want Sweden to become. Snatching up Finland would give it a nice buffer towards Russia, though you'll have to keep Russia weak to avoid Finland being retaken.

Russia really is the elephant in the room, as it did not wish a powerful Sweden. Maybe an 'Ottoman' Russia in constant, slow decline, with a powerful, possibly westernized Ottoman Empire to grab at the heels of the weakening giant? The Ukrainians go for Ottoman support for their independence rather than Russian, Ottoman Empire successfully keeps their Russian enemies at bay. A Swedish-Ottoman (and maybe -Prussian or -Austrian?) Alliance aimed at keeping Russia weak would go a long way to avoid that kind of competition.

Or just have the Russians never unite, Moscow never gets a chance a greatness and its all small dukedoms and unexplored 'wilderness'.

With Russia somehow taken care of, the Swedes will dominate Scandinavia. Norway and Finland are obvious targets, Denmark isn't really important for anything more than control over the Oresund strait. And that kind of control won't matter too much if the Swedes can take Norway and use Oslo/Christiania as a port towards the rest of the western world. Good Norwegian timber will give a nice export boost.

With a population of some 10 million and lots of timber for ships, good iron for cannon Sweden could potentially match the Dutch trading success. An alliance with Great Britain or France, or an armed neutrality to avoid colonial conflict between it and the great powers? Being the third rate power, allowed to take what the Great Powers don't want or can't decide how to share, wouldn't be all bad.

That is an economic powerhouse right there. It probably won't win a lot of great military victories or become a hugely influential mover and shaker of the world. A comfy economic power with a nice military to back it up isn't shabby either.

Sweden could incorporate Germans too who were under the same level of basic organization and township needed for the Swedish bureaucratic and military system, which succeeded because it was so simple to impose. Pommerania and Scania, conquered regions, were boons to Sweden.

Poland and bits of Russia could be used as auxiliaries too. A swedish King being invited to the Polish throne isn't a first, and he'd be able to easier control and raise cannon fodder from the magnates than the Saxons.

Russians meanwhile were too backwards and politically unstable to do any damage if Peter hadn't smashed Charles. They had some successes like Suvorov and the 1809 war that showed brilliance, but those come later, and if Sweden was still a thing in 1809, they would have won too.

Offensively, Sweden is oversaturated and has no more potential. Defensively, they could do fine. I don't see Austria or Russia being able to dislodge a Swedish realm consisting of a quarter of germany, a scandinavian union, and an auxiliary decentralized Polish state. The polish bit would gradually shrink, being the first thing they give up, but Sweden would have a lot more glory until it forms a confederation-style government that would probably last into the 1900s in its age of liberalism and democracy.
 
Top