Stanisław II August Pontiatowski, the last King of Poland, seems to have been a rather tragic figure in history. Though said to be elected in Catherine the Great's bed (he was indeed her lover for a time), he also seems to have had a sincere desire to reform Poland and re-establishing it as a sovereign European power. These grand designs all failed and at the end of the day, he had to suffer the Second and Third partitions of Poland, which ultimately erased his country from the map until it was re-established at Versailles more than a hundred years later.
So, why did he fail? Could he have succeeded? If so, then what butterflies would be necessary?