Could Rhodesia have won after UDI

Just read a great book by pen and sword publishing about the Rhodesian conflict and it got me to thinking how could the Rhodesian goverment have ensured victory in the conflict after declaring UDI?
 
Difficult without a pre-UDI POD, international opinion was moving against continued colonialism and unless that could be changed its hard to see how they could hang on longer than they did. Rhodesia eventually ran out of friends and resources, it's military was extremely effective but by the late 70's many young whites were emigrating rather than face years of military service. There are stories of how the Rhodesian Light Infantry was carrying out 3 combat drops a day which sounds impressive until you realise that that was because there wasn't anyone else available.

The big mistake the Rhodesians made was they saw their country as being a sort of giant gentleman's club in Southern Africa and ran a highly restrictive immigration policy that meant you had to pay something like £4,000 to get in. Had they adopted an open door immigration policy then they could have attracted more immigrants from Britain post war and this might have enabled them to carry on the war for another decade when the collapse of the USSR would have denied the African Nationalists funding and weapons and might have enabled the Rhodesians to negotiate a better settlement, but that's a best case scenario and I really doubt they could have achieved a total victory.
 
Once South Africa threw in the towel over apartide Rhodesia would have been finished even if they had held on for another 10 years.
 
Just read a great book by pen and sword publishing about the Rhodesian conflict and it got me to thinking how could the Rhodesian goverment have ensured victory in the conflict after declaring UDI?

If Mozambique remained a neutral or friendly state, then possibly yes. There still would need to be a settlement of some kind though sooner or later, but possibly slightly more in White Rhodesia's favour. Say the Bishop but earlier.

That being said, if the Rhodesians hadn't been against the wall, maybe a Bishop like deal would have never happened
 
The big problem Rhodesia faces is that non-recognition prevents it from carrying on normal economic relations, and it put tremendous strain on their resources for a long term war. Sanctions hurt.

I believe Rhodesia really went into difficulty when South Africa stopped supporting them after losing in Angola. Maybe if the South African intervention in Angola succeeded in defeating the MPLA/Cubans, then they may still feel it worthwhile to keep supporting the Rhodesians.

The other thing is that Rhodesia lacks the white population to keep white rule indefinitely. 5% of the country can't rule the other 95% without consent. The strange thing is that Rhodesia did not have a South African style apartheid. Blacks were not excluded from voting on account of race. Instead, there were economic and other restrictions that kept must excluded. Some form of relaxation would need to take place, and combined with some sort of land or economic reforms, might convince a substantial amount of Rhodesian blacks to support the government rather than the insurgents. I don't think if Ian Smith and the others were far sighted or enlightened enough to do so, but it was an option.

If the Rhodesian government could convince enough of the international community that black majority rule was possible in the medium term through their reform policies, they could have achieved recognition of UDI and been open to economic relations and foreign finance that might have been enough to keep Rhodesia in power, albeit with an ever increasing # of blacks in government. Ultimately, we'd finally see a black majority government take power within the Rhodesian system, perhaps by the 1990s.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
\
I believe Rhodesia really went into difficulty when South Africa stopped supporting them after losing in Angola. Maybe if the South African intervention in Angola succeeded in defeating the MPLA/Cubans, then they may still feel it worthwhile to keep supporting the Rhodesians.

I'm not quite sure what you mean there. The Rhodesian state folded in 1979. The South Africans' largest battle in Angola took place at Cuito Cuanavale against the Cubans in 1987.

It wasn't a military action that defeated the Rhodesians: it was the Arab Oil Embargo. The Rhodesian state's GDP was rising faster than Britains' was until the Embargo. And even then, it just sped up what was coming.

Rhodesia couldn't win. Not as the state Ian Smith wanted it to be.
 
Hmm, I am misremembering then. I thought I read somewhere that South Africa stopped aiding Rhodesia sometime in the 1970s after they lost a battle in the mid 70s. Sorry, this is not an area of history I am well read on.
 
Hmm, I am misremembering then. I thought I read somewhere that South Africa stopped aiding Rhodesia sometime in the 1970s after they lost a battle in the mid 70s. Sorry, this is not an area of history I am well read on.

South Africa stopped supporting Rhodesia as actively as they once had but that was for a variety of reasons
 
To survive for any length of time it would apartheid South Africa to offer the kind of unending support modern day South Africa does to Zimbabwe, even then that's going to come to a grinding halt when Apartheid ends.

Of course that opens the intriguing possibility of a Mandela brokered settlement to transfer Rhodesia to majority rule.
 
As others have said with a post UDI PoD Rhodesia has a expiry date some time between 1976 and at best 1984. With earlier PoD's you have more flexibility but only so much. White's simply got to Rhodesia too late to pull off the sort of population replacement you need to make a colonial venture a long term success.
 
What about no Portugese coup in 1974. I could even see joint Portugese South African action to bolster Rhodesia if needed in this scenario (of a weakened Rhodesia coexisting with an intact Portugese Mozambique/Angola) Was Rhodesia's situation getting progressively worse even before the coup?
 
The Portuguese Coup meant that Rhodesia had to defend its border with Mozambique, it also gave the opposition a safe haven from which to attack Rhodesia. It also further isolated Rhodesia. While no Carnation Revolution helps dramatically, by that time the Portuguese military is fed up with the constant colonial wars and the public has had it with the repression of the regime so some kind of backlash was probably inevitable by this point.
 
Last edited:
How would a different US president affect Rhodesia after UDI such as Barry Goldwater after 1964 or even Ronald Reagan after 1976?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
No.

Post-UDI? Hell no.

I mean, maybe if they had achieved a shift to majority rule under the Brits, but the UDI crystallized the Rhodesian establishment's determination to uphold white supremacy at bayonet-point.
 
Booya

How about a battalion of distruntled former Green Berets with all their arms and equipment at hand?:cool:

But yea I don't see how Rhodesia can continue unless they somehow pre-empt or offer the international community (Western governments) a roadmap establishing a consolidated government like its brief successor state Zimbabwe Rhodesia attempted OTL. As well as loosening immigration requirements and enabling foreign companies access to its natural resources without restrictions. Chances of it becoming a basket case by coup and violence remain high.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
The longer Rhodesia hung on, the more radical the decolonization was going to be. Unfortunately, you had Mugabe (backed by Nyerere) instead of Nkomo come out on top in the aftermath.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
What about no Portugese coup in 1974. I could even see joint Portugese South African action to bolster Rhodesia if needed in this scenario (of a weakened Rhodesia coexisting with an intact Portugese Mozambique/Angola) Was Rhodesia's situation getting progressively worse even before the coup?

The Portuguese Coup meant that Rhodesia had to defend its border with Mozambique, it also gave the opposition a safe haven from which to attack Rhodesia. It also further isolated Rhodesia. While no Carnation Revolution helps dramatically, by that time the Portuguese military is fed up with the constant colonial wars and the public has had it with the repression of the regime so some kind of backlash was probably inevitable by this point.

I'm not really sure how much difference it would have made. According to The Rhodesian War by Moorcraft, the Rhodesian SAS was already conducting raids into Mozambique in the mid-60s and accomplishing more than the Portuguese were.

In 32 Battalion, a former Rhodesian War veteran talks about the lack of materiel support coming from the Portuguese by the tail end of their occupation: the only Portuguese units still operating along the Rhodesian-Mozambiqan border were Alouette III crews that were ferrying the RhSAS around.
 
Okay first off MacCaulay's pretty much right about all the military jazz, so no need for me to talk about that.

The fundamental problem with the Rhodesian Bush War is the war part of that phrase. The Rhodesians consistently worked to portray their fight as one that was against communism rather than against the majority black population who no longer wanted to live under the system of white minority rule in the country.

Rhodesia post UDI would never have lasted as it was. The end of white minority rule could have gone a lot more nicely, the British could have had a considerably larger amount of moxy when it came to ZANU-PF and the fact that it steamrolled the Lancaster House Agreements at its earliest convenience. But surviving post UDI Rhodesia? Not going to happen. South African support or Mozambican (maybe if they get a Hastings Kamuzu Banda type of leader, but probably not) support or anyone's support won't change it.

Rhodesia with perhaps a Lebanon-inspired system of representation (though knowing what happened to Lebanon I am not so inclined to just instantly use them as a model) to make both sides reasonably happy (or rather, both sides unhappy, which is a good sign of compromise).
 

MacCaulay

Banned
How about a battalion of distruntled former Green Berets with all their arms and equipment at hand?:cool:

I know you're being a smart ass...but they had that. It was called 3 Commando of the Rhodesian Light Infantry.

Green Berets, French Foreign Legion, British and Australian SAS, Canadian Airborne Regiment, and veterans of just about every counterinsurgency war after Malaya.
 
Top