Could RFK could have won if he didn't die

Max Rakus

Banned
would it really have been impossible for RFK to win in '68? if it was possible please tell me how. If RFK lost in '68 could he have ran in 1976 instead of Carter?
 
I'm sure America would really like to see RFK rather than Tricky Dick - this is in hindsight, after all. RFK is a martyr's brother, a brother whose successor successfully passed minority rights bills and the such. Nixon was already seen as a failure at this point? Lost '60 to JFK, lost the California governor race... perhaps Nixon could be beat down twice by the Kennedy name?
 
would it really have been impossible for RFK to win in '68? if it was possible please tell me how. If RFK lost in '68 could he have ran in 1976 instead of Carter?

Impossible? Meh. Merely improbable. Humphrey probably had it in the bag, unless enough of the primaries went the wrong way to send a message to find a new standard barer. The shitshow that is the 68 primaries would lead to reforms and let RFK go for a comeback. If Hubert Humphrey wins though, possible with RFK kicking, maybe he gets SecState or some such than he'd come back in 76 or 80. If Humphrey loses, he either comes out swining in 72, or wins in 76.
 

Max Rakus

Banned
Well what if Humphrey lost like in real life? and with Nixon wining re-election in "72 like in real life with Nixon resigning would that push the American People far egnough to vote for RFK against Ford and with RFK whom im assuming will lose the south (unless with Carter as running mate but still would that help at all?)?
 
I'm sure America would really like to see RFK rather than Tricky Dick - this is in hindsight, after all. RFK is a martyr's brother, a brother whose successor successfully passed minority rights bills and the such. Nixon was already seen as a failure at this point? Lost '60 to JFK, lost the California governor race... perhaps Nixon could be beat down twice by the Kennedy name?

Stupid Sirhan Sirhan had to ruin everything.
 
RFK could have won handily IMO. He had just won the California primary when he was assassinated, and he had swiped the antiwar position from McCarthy while Humphrey was saddled with his support of LBJ's expansion of the war. Don't forget that many people voted for Nixon because he promised to end the war. RFK carried the Kennedy mystique, and he had huge momentum going as he rolled into the next round of primaries.

His death broke the back of the national Democratic Party, which split between Humphrey and McCarthy and then dissolved in the chaos of the Chicago convention.
 
I have no doubt RFK would have won. h He would have, unlike Humphrey, led a united party. hHumphrey almost won.
 
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It would have been easier for RFK to win the general than the nomination. HHH had the support of the bosses and that was important than. He also had the support of LBJ and that was Really important. LBJ hated Kennedy and would have pulled all stops to keep him out of the general election. I don't think RFK would have taken the VP in 68 like in 64. A big question to me is this, the law order voters many went to Nixon and Wallace. Some yes were racists. But RFK believed he could get them to vote for him . He was the former AG. He did win the Indiana and Nebraska primaries , those are not liberal states even on the democrtas side. If he could get those voters than not only does he beat Nixon but wins easily. But was that posible?
 
It would have been easier for RFK to win the general than the nomination. HHH had the support of the bosses and that was important than. He also had the support of LBJ and that was Really important. LBJ hated Kennedy and would have pulled all stops to keep him out of the general election. I don't think RFK would have taken the VP in 68 like in 64. A big question to me is this, the law order voters many went to Nixon and Wallace. Some yes were racists. But RFK believed he could get them to vote for him . He was the former AG. He did win the Indiana and Nebraska primaries , those are not liberal states even on the democrtas side. If he could get those voters than not only does he beat Nixon but wins easily. But was that posible?

Robert Kennedy had gotten Mayor Daley behind him, and LBJ didn't support Humphrey, he supported Nixon. That is, until he found out the dirty tricks Nixon was doing to win 1968 (sabotaging the peace talks), when he turned his support to Humphrey. Humphrey and Johnson didn't have that great a relationship, at least from the things I've read.
 
In 1968 RFK would not have won, period.

If you look at the delegate numbers after California/etc Humphrey was still way ahead of RFK and McCarthy. Most of the remaining delegates to be chosen were in machine states (mostly in the South) controlled by LBJ.

As much as he didn't like HHH there is no way LBJ would have let Kennedy win the nomination. And if he somehow did Johnson would have worked behind the scenes to toss the race to Nixon. He didn't want to be the fluke between the Kennedy's and he and Nixon were friends.

RFK in 72 or 76 maybe (76 more likely) but not in 68.
 
In 1968 RFK would not have won, period.

If you look at the delegate numbers after California/etc Humphrey was still way ahead of RFK and McCarthy. Most of the remaining delegates to be chosen were in machine states (mostly in the South) controlled by LBJ.

Quite. I've stated before that RFK's entire strategy for the convention seems to have been to get a good old fashioned spontaneous convention demonstration going (in the hall, among the delegates, that is) and nobody has shot that notion down.

Yeah, nah, Bobby isn't getting the nomination along the lines of William Jennings Bryan.

Also, one fascinating thing I read recently, which absolutely has a baring on a living RFK's ability to win both the nom and the general, is the fact he was so broke during his '64 senate race he went begging to Johnson for DNC funds. Like, in a personal meeting in the Oval Office. It's on tape, Michael Beschloss recounts it in his histories.

My contention: If the Kennedy national fundraising machine died with Jack, and it couldn't be revived because Evil Old Joe was an invalid, then this is obviously a thing for RFK if he wants to get the edge on both HHH and the Republicans.

I assume the convention machers know this; I assume Nixon knows it.

So, folks, what do the historians say about this? From my own reading this is something that just isn't teased out, because of the abrupt end of the '68 challenge.

But this actually has implications beyond the seemably-unwinnable-for-Kennedy cycle in 1968, it's a major thing for future winnable cycles.
A big question to me is this, the law order voters many went to Nixon and Wallace. Some yes were racists. But RFK believed he could get them to vote for him . He was the former AG.

Threading that needle in 1968 is one thing, but in future cycles this is something that becomes very hard. Perhaps impossible. The fight over whether or not to appease the Wallace Dems is a main reason for the terrible split of '72.

Eventually the only guy who can overcome this is Carter, by using the one political superpower he had--political outsiderdom in the aftermath of Watergate, Vietnam, the Church committee.

Somehow, in my mind an RFK who lives to fight another day is starting to merge with the contours of Teddy's ill-fated 1980 challenge, I just don't know if it's from the Right or from the Left...
 
If RFK will survive the tentative of assassination this will surely help him for both the nomination and the general election...
Humprey was the favorite but he was not a fighter and was too much indecisive and he do not compete directly in the primaries (because he enter in the race too late), RFK will all the primaries in which he compete but one (and if he was still alive will surely win also the last) and he can likely take also McCarthy's delegate (ok, McCarthy can be angry with RFK because he first said he was not interested then change idea and enter in the race taking away his supporters but he know he can not win and better Kennedy than the pro-war VP).
LBJ was an important player in the Convention but also Major Daley (who was with RFK) and HHH great problem was who he enter in the race after LBJ withdraw and only for do not let LBJ's place empty (more or less, the guy said who if LJB change idea he was ready to give him back the place exiting from the race sand likely not once).
True neither Old Joe or Jack was there but the rest of he family was already in the field and this was really useful.
 
If Daley backs him, he might be able to get the nomination. If Johnson halts the bombing to give the politician he hated most a peace bump. If labor supports him as much as its preferred candidate–Humphrey. If he avoids becoming demonized, as McGovern would, by the Nixon campaign as the leader of the New Left, which would stop him from losing the blue-collar votes that so helped McGovern in the primaries and so destroyed him in the general. If, since there's no way in hell he wins Texas, he carries California, Nixon's home state, and a state that went for the Democrats only once (the 1964 landslide) from 1952 until 1992.

I think this is the most likely best-case scenario for RFK:
1968NixonRFK.png

1968NixonRFK.png
 
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Whoa. This election map, this basically sends Bobby back to the senate so he can sit around, waiting to get replaced by Jerry Brown as preferred candidate for what's left of the broadchurch liberal intelligentsia.

But that's a subject for another thread.:D
 
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