Could Portugal win its colonial wars with foreign troops

Say an Italy doesn't fight in world war 2 or a Spain doesn't have a civil war or a shorter one or whatever sent a large amount of forces to aid Portugal in its colonial wars

Would this lead to Portuguese victory or avoid Carnation Revolution
 
While the Portuguese certainly had an innovative approach to counter insurgency, ultimately (anti-) colonial wars require a political solution, not a military one. I don’t think that Italy or Spain pouring men into a Portuguese fight would necessarily change things unless a radically different outcome of WW2 allowed the European powers in general to maintain their status Vis a Vis the USSR and USA. This would prevent the political developments that made the end of colonialism inevitable.

Once Britain and France gave up on the colonial project, Portugal was just swimming against the tide.
 
While the Portuguese certainly had an innovative approach to counter insurgency, ultimately (anti-) colonial wars require a political solution, not a military one. I don’t think that Italy or Spain pouring men into a Portuguese fight would necessarily change things unless a radically different outcome of WW2 allowed the European powers in general to maintain their status Vis a Vis the USSR and USA. This would prevent the political developments that made the end of colonialism inevitable.
Wouldn't it reduce the strain on Portugal
 
More than foreign troops, I believe Portugal required reasonable objectives.

If they found a honorable way to back off from Goa and Timor Leste and divided their African holdings with the natives, keeping only defensible areas, concentrating their forces there and perhaps resorting to population transfer (sorry, my pet peeve), then perhaps they'd still have colonies today or at the very least overseas autonomous regions.

If you want the POD as per subject, I see foreign forces (regular or mercenary) being used to protect oil rigs and mines, but without some sort of political accomodation things are going to turn bloody in no time and burn the profits from said natural resources.
 
If we were to assume the Carnation Revolution was inevitable, then here are the possibilities presented to us.

Cabo Verde and São Tomé could of likely been held on to with minimal effort, as there was little separatist momentum there. Timor-Leste is also a possible remnant, although it is more likely there would be resistance as time went on.

Goa could not be held due to obvious reasons. India could, and did, invade and annex it. Therefore unless India was partitioned further, enough to prevent it from being to powerful, Goa and the other Portuguese Indian cites cannot be held. Portuguese-held Macau is also reliant on British action. If Hong Kong is given back to China, then it is a matter of time before Macau has to be given up. Chinese pressure would be too strong, and Portugal would probably want to avoid a second Goa annexation.

Moving on to the continental Africa, the topic becomes more interesting. Unlike the other colonies, Guinea-Bissau had a rather successful rebel movement, controlling over 60% of the region at the time of the Carnation Revolution. Therefore, the post-coup government, which had an “everything must go” attitude to colonialism, would give up the colony quickly. Angola and Mozambique, on the other hand, are different. If greater South African support was accepted, then there would be an even more successful counter-insurgency then there was in OTL. Accepting the backing of South Africa could also lead to quasi-apartheid ideas being partially accepted by Portuguese colonial authorities. Most importantly, the idea of creating independent black homelands. Portugal could give independence to certain regions of Angola and Mozambique, like Cabinda and border regions. It could also transfer the border regions of Angola with Namibia, populated with Ovambo, Kavango and other groups, to the black homelands in Namibia of Ovamboland and Kavangoland. Once this is set and done, Portugal could theoretically hold on to Angola and Mozambique. This measure of control could range from partial self-government to a sort of dominion status like in the British Commonwealth.
 
Timor didn't have an insurgency and Indonesia only moved in when it looked like communists were about to come to power

It still cost money to keep.

What would be defensible areas for Angola and Mozambique

Can't get into specifics. Any economically viable area that can have European and union-friendly native majority.

That wouldn't happen as the governing ideology was Lusotropicalism

If they call in foreign mercenaries perhaps they're willing to bend their ideology somewhat.
 

SSJRED

Banned
Even if it were to "win" colonial wars, there would still be pressure from the rest of the world for decolonization. Any military victory will be short lived as Portugal will eventually be seen as a rougue state in the same vein as Apartheid South Africa.
 
Say an Italy doesn't fight in world war 2 or a Spain doesn't have a civil war or a shorter one or whatever sent a large amount of forces to aid Portugal in its colonial wars

Would this lead to Portuguese victory or avoid Carnation Revolution

Why would either country be willing to loose thousands of troops in wars on the other side of the globe, in places that didn't even belong to them anyway?
 
Timor-Leste is also a possible remnant, although it is more likely there would be resistance as time went on.
It still cost money to keep.
Timor-Leste was very loyal, and the Portuguese involvement was limited in financial terms, without much interference in the lives of the local population.

If we were to assume the Carnation Revolution was inevitable, then here are the possibilities presented to us.
The Carnation Revolution, or an ATL equivalent had an high degree of inevitability. A more successful colonial war would only mask the symptoms that lead to it and delay it for a few years at most. It can only be avoided by a very early POD that sees Salazar replaced earlier by either a liberalising coup, or by death followed by appointment of a reformer. This might however change a lot of the colonial wars, since that government would be more open to prepare the colonies for progressive autonomy (or integration, if they so wished).
Moving on to the continental Africa, the topic becomes more interesting. Unlike the other colonies, Guinea-Bissau had a rather successful rebel movement, controlling over 60% of the region at the time of the Carnation Revolution. Therefore, the post-coup government, which had an “everything must go” attitude to colonialism, would give up the colony quickly. Angola and Mozambique, on the other hand, are different. If greater South African support was accepted, then there would be an even more successful counter-insurgency then there was in OTL. Accepting the backing of South Africa could also lead to quasi-apartheid ideas being partially accepted by Portuguese colonial authorities. Most importantly, the idea of creating independent black homelands. Portugal could give independence to certain regions of Angola and Mozambique, like Cabinda and border regions. It could also transfer the border regions of Angola with Namibia, populated with Ovambo, Kavango and other groups, to the black homelands in Namibia of Ovamboland and Kavangoland. Once this is set and done, Portugal could theoretically hold on to Angola and Mozambique. This measure of control could range from partial self-government to a sort of dominion status like in the British Commonwealth.
The mindset of authorities was not favourable to partition in a bantustan fashion, and if it were to happen, under extreme necessity, it would be in large coherent nations (eg. a few districts), to ensure stability.

Even if it were to "win" colonial wars, there would still be pressure from the rest of the world for decolonization.
I agree, it would have to end up in progressive autonomy and potential independence.
 
Why would either country be willing to loose thousands of troops in wars on the other side of the globe, in places that didn't even belong to them anyway?
Help an ally. United States,Russia, and even Cuba have done it multiple times since the end of world war 2.
 
Help an ally. United States,Russia, and even Cuba have done it multiple times since the end of world war 2.

Errr... what ally? Portugal was never allied with either nation. Even politically, despite all being right-wing dictatorships, there was only a tenuos relation at best. And both Italy and Spain were well aquainted with the dificulties of fighting colonial wars.
 
Errr... what ally? Portugal was never allied with either nation. Even politically, despite all being right-wing dictatorships, there was only a tenuos relation at best. And both Italy and Spain were well aquainted with the dificulties of fighting colonial wars.
I was thinking in the context of an alt where Portugal is in their sphere of influence post-world war 2 .
 
As I understand it one of the primary issues that arose out of the colonial wars was the strain on the budget. IIRC by the end of Salazar's tenure in power nearly a quarter of the budget was being consumed by defense expenses, prompting the Estado Novo to open the country to foreign investment for the first time. If you have a neutral/strengthened Italy, and/or a Spain that doesn't have its treasury taken away, you could see substantial support flow into the Angola and Mozambique theaters, in addition to the existing support of South Africa. So, yes, Portugal could win if a post-war Fascist bloc of support was developed and utilized.

I don't know how long this situation could go on, but it would certainly draw out the conflicts in Southern Africa. For example, when Angola and Mozambique were handed to African nationalists Rhodesia's front line was extended massively, and Nkomo/Mugabe had new allied governments from which support could flow. Every year that Portuguese Africa hangs on is another year that Rhodesia hangs on too imo.
 
if a post-war Fascist bloc of support was developed and utilized.

See, this is the problem right here. The OP started with "no spanish civil war" which means Franco doesn't get into power. The civil war was what put him in power. This in turn means that Spain will progress from where it was in the early 30s, into either a full center democracy or something based around socialism. So much for support for Salazar. As for Italy, Mussolini & co were horrible administrators: the disastrous way they managed italian industry during WWII proves it. This poor management, plus the costs of maintaining their own colonies of Libya and Ethyopia, would most likely cause serious problems for the italian economy. I don't see why they'd be willing to come to the aid of a country that, tbh, means nothing to them and would be in even worse state they would be.
 
See, this is the problem right here. The OP started with "no spanish civil war" which means Franco doesn't get into power. The civil war was what put him in power. This in turn means that Spain will progress from where it was in the early 30s, into either a full center democracy or something based around socialism.
By no civil war I mean a successful coup
I don't see why they'd be willing to come to the aid of a country that, tbh, means nothing to them and would be in even worse state they would be.
Could the resources of Angola and Mozambique provide an incentive to get involved
 
Wouldn't it reduce the strain on Portugal

Even if it were to "win" colonial wars, there would still be pressure from the rest of the world for decolonization. Any military victory will be short lived as Portugal will eventually be seen as a rougue state in the same vein as Apartheid South Africa.

As I understand it one of the primary issues that arose out of the colonial wars was the strain on the budget. IIRC by the end of Salazar's tenure in power nearly a quarter of the budget was being consumed by defense expenses, prompting the Estado Novo to open the country to foreign investment for the first time. If you have a neutral/strengthened Italy, and/or a Spain that doesn't have its treasury taken away, you could see substantial support flow into the Angola and Mozambique theaters, in addition to the existing support of South Africa. So, yes, Portugal could win if a post-war Fascist bloc of support was developed and utilized.

I don't know how long this situation could go on, but it would certainly draw out the conflicts in Southern Africa. For example, when Angola and Mozambique were handed to African nationalists Rhodesia's front line was extended massively, and Nkomo/Mugabe had new allied governments from which support could flow. Every year that Portuguese Africa hangs on is another year that Rhodesia hangs on too imo.

Yes perhaps an influx of men and money from a fascist Italy and Spain would help Portugal but more importantly, that scenario would assume what JamesBond88 said: the existence of a post-war fascist bloc. That would be far more important in perpetuating the norms and values that would sustain the colonialist project. As I wrote previously, Britain and France gave up the game because they knew which way the wind was blowing. Don’t forget that by 1958 France had essentially won a military victory over the NLF in Algeria, but the political realities were such that an Algerian political identity was awakened and that the French were isolated in their struggle. A surviving post-war fascist bloc would find much in common with the old entente powers in using their colonies to maintain their prestige in the face of the 2 new superpowers and may even be uneasy bedfellows in the formation of a 3rd force in the Cold War.


TL;DR the political ramifications of Italy and Spain even existing post-war are more important than whatever material aid they could provide.
 
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