Could Poland ever become an independent state without WW1?

[sirjackalot]

In a No WW1 TL, where the German, Austro-Hungarian and Russian empires stroll along and never collapse, what would be the fate of Poland? Could they get obtain independence or would they end up the Kurds of Europe?

In Russia specifically, where they were most populous, could Congress of Poland ever realistically gain independence within the Russian empire? Or would Russification policies eventually win out over time?

 

[Snowstalker]

I think the political winds in Russia were still trending towards the decline of the autocracy, and that would naturally create better conditions for Poland and Finland (not necessarily Ukraine, the Baltics, etc.) to gain their independence. Getting parts of Austrian Galicia is a possibility if AH collapses, but I don't think they could ever get anything from Germany without winning a war.

 

[Lalli]

Without WW1 Poland hardly ever become independent. It would require complete collapse of Russia. Russia is not going allow Poland to leave.

 

[Admiral Spaun]

It's possible although not under a Czarist government. Without WW1 I'd give the autocracy another 20 years tops.

 

[David T]

Without WW1 Poland hardly ever become independent. It would require complete collapse of Russia. Russia is not going allow Poland to leave.

This assumes there will never be a Russian Revolution without World War I. This is a complex question, as I note at https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/russian-revolution-with-no-ww1.476696/#post-19620380 As I said there, I do not accept the argument that revolution was knocking on the door in 1914, bur the ingredients for an eventual revolution were there if and when the next crisis struck (which did not have to be a world war). At the very least, a revolutionary government would favor a wide degree of autonomy for Poland ; even the Kadets advocated that in 1905. https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/russian-revolution-with-no-ww1.476696/#post-19620380 And such autonomy could quite plausibly lead to eventual independence.

 

[A Piece of History]

I doubt Poland would ever gain independence without the Russian Empire bring brought to it's knees and especially not with Nicholas II on the throne. Realistically, under a more even-handed Tsar, Poland could have Finland-style autonomy. Before Tsar Nicholas's Russification policies, Finland had quite a bit of autonomy, having it's own police, currency, postal service and even army.

 

[Dorknought]

To have an independent Poland would require Germany, Russia and Austria to agree on it. While they are strong, it won't happen.

 

[JanWellem]

The best Poland can realistically hope for is a Finland-like status for Congress Poland.

 

[Drizzt]

The best Poland can realistically hope for is a Finland-like status for Congress Poland.

Extrapolating from that, I could also see the status of Finland, Poland and other such areas in Russia eventually turning into something like Dominion status. However even then it's still a matter that they'll be a lot closer to Mother Russia in the literal sense of the word, than the British Dominions were.

 

[Snaut]

No European empire and hardly any multiethnic countries survived the 20th century. It's not a question of if, just a question of how soon.

 

[anotherlurker]

No European empire and hardly any multiethnic countries survived the 20th century. It's not a question of if, just a question of how soon.

Outside of Europe the multi ethnic state is the norm. It's Europe that's the exception. And only due to the wars, would India in its current state exist if there was some large war in the 60s that went on for years where one ethnicity in India has less hardships than others and where the war ended with India losing?

 

[Snaut]

Outside of Europe the multi ethnic state is the norm. It's Europe that's the exception. And only due to the wars, would India in its current state exist if there was some large war in the 60s that went on for years where one ethnicity in India has less hardships than others and where the war ended with India losing?

My bad, I was thinking of Europe all the time but forgot to write it a second time.

 

[Lalli]

No European empire and hardly any multiethnic countries survived the 20th century. It's not a question of if, just a question of how soon.

Brits and French fade quiet well. And regarding multinational nations Switzerland is still exist and probably will be yet long time. And even modern day Russia is pretty multinational. And in Europe is some other multinational countries too.

So question is how long central government can keep control with minority groups either with autonomy or with force.

 

[Polish Eagle]

No European empire and hardly any multiethnic countries survived the 20th century. It's not a question of if, just a question of how soon.

The United Kingdom is a multiethnic state and it's held onto Scotland even to this day. Given another few decades of Tsarist rule, who's to say that Polish separatist sentiment won't eventually become a minority ideology even in Poland itself? That can be accomplished either with the stick (the preferred Tsarist technique, deporting revolutionary Poles to Siberia, forbidding the use of the Polish language in business and government, thus requiring learning of Russian culture, and, in extreme cases, bayonet-point conversion to Orthodoxy as was done in Ukraine) or the carrot (Poland was one of the wealthiest parts of the Russian Empire--if enough Poles can be persuaded that prosperity requires remaining part of Russia...). Nicholas II was an imbecile, but a smarter ruler could potentially defuse Polish separatism to, at worst, the same degree of popularity that Scottish independence has.

I would say that the best Poland can hope for is Finland-like autonomy, but even that's optimistic for two reasons. First, Poland is in a strategically more critical location, being bordered by two other European great powers (whereas Sweden was not a realistic threat to Russia anymore). An autonomous Poland is a precedent for an independent--and German or Austrian-allied--Poland. Second, ideologically, Poland is a Slavic country, while Finland is not, and since the Tsars made a big deal about being protectors of all the Slavs, easing their grip on Poland undermines their legitimacy. A more plausible outcome, IMO, is an increasingly Russified Poland, the carrot and the stick eventually wearing the inhabitants down until independence is a goal championed only by a tiny minority.

 

[Snaut]

How long do you think Switzerland would last if non-German languages were barred from public use and the autonomy of the French cantons were replaced with rule by decree from the capital? Or how long do you think English control would last if Scotland were abolished and called North England, and if a "glass ceiling" prevented Scots from holding high positions?

 

[Snaut]

Given another few decades of Tsarist rule, who's to say that Polish separatist sentiment won't eventually become a minority ideology even in Poland itself? That can be accomplished either with the stick (the preferred Tsarist technique, deporting revolutionary Poles to Siberia, forbidding the use of the Polish language in business and government, thus requiring learning of Russian culture, and, in extreme cases, bayonet-point conversion to Orthodoxy as was done in Ukraine)

Close to a century of all this brought less than spectacular results.

I would say that the best Poland can hope for is Finland-like autonomy, but even that's optimistic for two reasons. First, Poland is in a strategically more critical location, being bordered by two other European great powers (whereas Sweden was not a realistic threat to Russia anymore). An autonomous Poland is a precedent for an independent--and German or Austrian-allied--Poland. Second, ideologically, Poland is a Slavic country, while Finland is not, and since the Tsars made a big deal about being protectors of all the Slavs, easing their grip on Poland undermines their legitimacy. A more plausible outcome, IMO, is an increasingly Russified Poland, the carrot and the stick eventually wearing the inhabitants down until independence is a goal championed only by a tiny minority.

Moscow allowed the USSR to collapse and abandon all sorts of critical locations. The prestigious British Empire, and all sorts of other colonial posessions, were also abandoned eventually. If Petersburg grants none of its subjects autonomy, it must either grant its subject nationalities equal status instead of treating them like second-class citizens, which Russian nationalists will hate, or keep treating them worse and alienating them. And if Russian pan-Slavism were to be taken seriously, then surely at some point between 1815 and WWI some Tsar would have taken issue with the fact that many Poles were the subjects of Austria and Germany.

 

[Wendell]

There would probably b some kind of armed conflict involved, but not on the scale of World War I.