Could Paraguay have achieved "Empire" status?


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I think people are vastly overestimating Argentina. If Paraguay declared war on Argentina the date that it did the standing troop counts is 4 to 1 with Paraguay having the numerical advantage--(Also important to note that Paraguayan divisions performed better on the Battlefield) and it's likely the Paraguyans would secure Entre Rios and Corrientes as they did in the war of the Triple Alliance. . and no Brazil means no battle of Richeula which also means that Paraguay mantains river dominance. It's also easy to forget Argentina's geopolitical position. All of it's neighbors had territorial disputes, Argentina suffered from numerous civil wars and was divided among quarreling war lords. They were also in debt, and it's also interesting to note that Paraguay was not. I think what happens is people look on paper or the maps and say: "Hey, Argentina has so much more people and land. Easy win, right?". But more people doesn't mean more troops-- theres a reason they only had around 60,000 troops. They didn't have the equitment to raise more and much of Argentina's Resources and Manpower was in the hands of Caudillos. If Buenos Aires was to fall, it's likely Argentina would collapse in on itself-- Buenos Aires is the centrifuge of federal power and influence. Not only that, but with control of the rivers Paraguay's invasion is much less of a logistical burden, and the more defensible Paraguayan geography in addition to river control would make any Argentine counter offensive unlikely to bare fruit.

While I've conceded previously that a War of Triple Alliance is a loss for the Paraguayans, but I don't think I can say that Paraguay would lose against the Argentines one on one. Argentina was just a mess at the time.

So each Caudillo will create his own state and simply forget about the federation? That's self-sabotage. Brazil would love it.
 
So each Caudillo will create his own state and simply forget about the federation? That's self-sabotage. Brazil would love it.

I wish I could say with certainty what would happen but Argentina collapsing is a possibility-- we could also see a Caudillo overpower the rest and form a new central government or perhaps there'd be a revival of the Confederation. If I'm being honest, I don't have the resources to predict what would have went down because there are just too many variables but whatever would happen it would likely not be good for Argentina. There is ofcourse a chance that the Caudillos would side with the Central Government, and while that would go against the historical behavior it is still within the realm of possibility. Chile may even declare it's own war if Argentina is weakened enough over it's claims in the Andes and Patagonia. It would certainly be a powder keg. Brazil would almost certainly intervene in the resulting chaos as it has done in the past-- on who's behalf I couldn't say.

Edit: Oh, and ofcourse the Federal Government could win any potential altercation with the Caudillos but I don't see this happening without them being backed by one of their neighbors or a Foreign Power given the fact that if Paraguay was able to capture Buenos Aires they'd lose their largest support base.
 
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Imploded Argentina sounds like Brazil-wank, what would be detrimental to Paraguay's development (and to all Plate region).
 
While I've conceded previously that a War of Triple Alliance is a loss for the Paraguayans, but I don't think I can say that Paraguay would lose against the Argentines one on one. Argentina was just a mess at the time.
I think I brought this up the last time I did a War of the Triple Alliance thread, but what if Paraguay were to have at least one ally join them? Perhaps they could convince Chile to lend some support to their effort since Argentina has land Chile would want to possess. Hell, throw in some Argentine rebels and it becomes Triple Alliance VS Triple Alliance.
 
Imploded Argentina sounds like Brazil-wank, what would be detrimental to Paraguay's development (and to all Plate region).

Honestly, I'd have to agree. Unless Paraguay was able to secure itself well enough to preclude Brazil dominating their affaires or if there'd be some sort of Foreign opposition to Brazilian Hegemony-- which isn't unprecedented as Europeans have interfered in South American affairs. Or if somehow Brazil got the wrong end of the stick during the Chaos. . . honestly, Argentina imploding is an incredibly interesting topic.
 
I think I brought this up the last time I did a War of the Triple Alliance thread, but what if Paraguay were to have at least one ally join them? Perhaps they could convince Chile to lend some support to their effort since Argentina has land Chile would want to possess. Hell, throw in some Argentine rebels and it becomes Triple Alliance VS Triple Alliance.
I could see that happening, problem is Chile and Paraguay didn't have much in terms of diplomatic relations, and the terrain between Argentina and Chile isn't very war friendly. I could see it happening though if Argentina was distracted with both rebels and Paraguay, but regardless Paraguay would have to withstand the pressure of Brazil. Perhaps if they won the Battle of Richeula they could hold on long enough to knock out Argentina and then perhaps make peace with Brazil. They could get minor concessions from the Brazilians, but it would be too great a logistical and military challange to get the Brazilians to concede any more than some claims in the Mucho Grasso or maybe if fortune smiles the Blancos would return to power in Uruguay. IMO the safest and best option would be just to negotiate a peace with the Brazilians as quick as possible.
 
I think I brought this up the last time I did a War of the Triple Alliance thread, but what if Paraguay were to have at least one ally join them? Perhaps they could convince Chile to lend some support to their effort since Argentina has land Chile would want to possess. Hell, throw in some Argentine rebels and it becomes Triple Alliance VS Triple Alliance.

Chile was already busy antagozing Bolivia and Peru over guano deposits, they can't afford a fight with Argentineans too.

Honestly, I'd have to agree. Unless Paraguay was able to secure itself well enough to preclude Brazil dominating their affaires or if there'd be some sort of Foreign opposition to Brazilian Hegemony-- which isn't unprecedented as Europeans have interfered in South American affairs. Or if somehow Brazil got the wrong end of the stick during the Chaos. . . honestly, Argentina imploding is an incredibly interesting topic.

Brazil has learnt a lesson after losing the Cisplatine. It'd use gunboat diplomacy to ensure control of the Plate region (by the way, Brazilian intervention in Uruguay was one of the direct causes of Paraguayan War). Also, I don't think that Europeans would intervene if the Empire sticks with indirect rule. Heck, shortly before the war Brazil even cut off diplomatic relations with Britain after a diplomatic incident and only reconnected with the former partner after a formal apology of the British government.
 
Brazil has learnt a lesson after losing the Cisplatine. It'd use gunboat diplomacy to ensure control of the Plate region (by the way, Brazilian intervention in Uruguay was one of the direct causes of Paraguayan War). Also, I don't think that Europeans would intervene if the Empire sticks with indirect rule. Heck, shortly before the war Brazil even cut off diplomatic relations with Britain after a diplomatic incident and only reconnected with the former partner after a formal apology of the British government.

Indeed-- but don't you think such ambitious intervention would draw the ire of atleast one Western Power? Also, to ensure that Paraguay doesn't secure it's new occupations and treaties they could send out Diplomatic Objections and threats-- knowing Lopez he would surely not back down. So they would have to confront Paraguay directly. For Brazil to seal the deal when it comes to having to dominate the basin Brazil would have to take out Paraguay's river strongholds. . . which is next to impossible without support from the Army. That means total war with Paraguay. That would not be a popular decision, and it would sour relations even more. Brazil's navy would have a lot of area to cover and a lot of Chaos to mitigate should Argentina implode, and it would probaly be overextended. In addition, Argentina is quite a large country to puppet and they would certainly be negative attitudes towards it given their history. Brazil would probaly be better off letting Argentina collapse, or atleast let Paraguay keep their gains whilst they support whichever side is most friendly to Brazil and their interests.

Edit: Oh, and ofcourse I'm aware that the Brazilians kicking out the Blancos was Lopez's Casus Belli.

Edit 2: But your point is very interesting. . and it does raise some potential for an ATL where Brazil is even more powerful.
 
Since this is a big thread on the War of the Triple Alliance, what might Paraguay's demographics have been like without that conflict being so horrible and within the modern day borders--I've been wondering? An absolute massacre/famine and severe gender imbalance does not suggest the demographics were very good for a few decades, and I've seen the status of the Guarani language in modern Paraguay attributed in part to the devastation. So would Paraguay have similar or more population assuming the same conditions in Latin America in the 20th century assuming Paraguay didn't suffer as bad in the conflict?



White peace is definitely Paraguay's best goal. Brazil and Argentina can outproduce them and more easily rebuild a fleet, not to mention the manpower needed. But that will take time, and Brazil and Argentina might just throw their hands in the air and take Lopez's peace offer. I've mentioned WWII Japan a lot in this thread, because they're so similar. Nations that fought to the bitter end (Japan easily could've have in 45-46) for goals so out of reach, even though they could bunch well above their theoretical power. That's why Paraguay must be very careful, but at the same time, Imperial Brazil in the 1860s isn't the United States in the early 1940s--it's a country that could easily settle for a white peace. You're right about Solano Lopez--he's a lot less insane than he's portrayed as in many accounts. He's one of history's gamblers--take his contemporary Robert E. Lee for another man who gambled a ton on battles and won more often then not (until he inevitably lost). But Francia himself is often considered insane, even though for his context, it's difficult to find a better guy to deal with the hand he was dealt.

As far as I know with Uruguay, anything with the Colorados will mean more rounds of the Uruguayan Civil Wars, meaning the place will take longer to stabilise. Not sure what the status of the place between Brazil and Argentina was in the 19th century--like the UK and Belgium? Obviously the Cisplatine War and such, but later on? Adding a third power seems like you'd have to rewrite the political situation of the region. It seems a flashpoint and an area of instability--Paraguay would be best to be very careful, since it's an obvious place for a casus belli from Brazil or Argentina to come from.

I'm still not convinced with the need for an ocean port, and if that would be in Paraguay's best interest. Adding Corrientes and Entre Rios means two powerful Argentine provinces are now in Paraguay. That means their governors will now be some of the most powerful individuals in the country. Look at General Urquiza--right from Entre Rios. Corrientes and Entre Rios might be good, but might also be bad, and will definitely be throwing a huge wild card into play for the future of Paraguay, all for the sake of some ocean front which could be effectively secured through enforcement of treaty rights and a strong army/riverine navy. But that definitely grabs most all of Argentina's mate-producing land, so that might have some positive effects but at the same times, allow the local governors a lot of control over what happens. But in practice, they can still maintain somewhat of a parity with Brazil assuming there isn't mate planting anywhere else it might be suitable based on how it catches on (i.e., a US planter in the Deep South experimenting with it, where it'll probably grow if my research is right, the Ottomans--mate is popular in parts of the Arab world, evidently, could it be produced there, colonial efforts in Africa in the 1880s onwards). A lot does depend on how much it catches on--I don't know how much the relation of the various plants of the Ilex family were known in the 19th century, but it appears as though yerba mate and the US South yaupon have overlapping ranges if you cared to transplant the crops there. Something individuals in the Deep South might appreciate if the country ever finds itself a taste for mate. It'll probably work better than the coffee and tea plantations in the US South ever did. And that cuts into the revenue potential of mate for Paraguay and the rest of the region--what's the point of gaining all this mate-cultivating land when Georgia, South Carolina, etc. are outcompeting you?

"Banana republic" type rule as in Central America might only happen if yerba mate catches on in the US or Europe, and the right capitalists meet up and plot something nefarious out for how to gain a market. Okay, maybe not that obviously evil, but it definitely takes scheming to control governments like United Fruit did in Honduras and such, and of course plenty of money to dish out the bribes to various politicians.

I'm not too familiar with the coffee booms either, but from what I've read, that's what gave Brazil the power to do things like buy their dreadnoughts and thus spark the South American dreadnought race.
I'll answer the question in regards to demographics the best I can based on my reasoning-- but I'm not as educated on Demographics as I am in regards to other things and I lack good sources on the subject. But I think that Paraguay could have a much larger and homogenous population. In regards to Addressing how it would be bigger, a successful war would result in several things in comparison to loosing as they did in OTL: Less casualties, less gender inbalance, more infrastructure and possibly more real estate. All these things would suggest population growth, and if we see infrastructure rise with it the population may not plateau. So yes, we could see a larger, more dense population. In regards to my second point on homogenity, prior to the war there were laws stipulating that people intermerry between racial groups. Given that Spanish was more popular and the language if government and trade it's likely that a Guarani/Spanish couple would teach their children Spanish and less likely to pass on Guarani. If Lopez won we could see a continuation in these policies or atleast in this trend, creating a more concrete and concise Paraguayan identity. In addition, I postulate that a disproportionate number of the male survivers of the war may be Guarani as they are more likely to live in rural areas with less conflict and conscription. As such, Guarani may have been partially preserved by the war-- this is just my speculation though.

I love the comparisons you draw between Paraguay and other things in history. Also in regards to Uruguay if I'm correct it wasn't necessarily a Belgium-- both Argentina and Brazil wanted Uruguay on their side, but Argentina actually did sanction the Brazilian intervention in the Uruguay civil war for rather obscure reasons. As for the taking of provinces Entre Rios and Corrientes, I would assume that the power of the governer would be reduced-- perhaps even deposed. Perhaps create new smaller provinces and divy them up amongst supporters. In regards to Yerba Mate, I believe that foreign control of industry would be detrimental to their growth-- perhaps a comparison to the Anglo-Iranian oil company is more accurate. The resulting corruption and corporate domination would pin wealth in the hands of a select few who are likely to use it for their own needs and not the countries. Speaking of the Dreadnaught race, how might a more powerful Paraguay participate if at all?

P.S.(To all those that participated or read up on this Thread): Apologies if I forget to address important points or at times am a bit vague-- it's my first thread and all. Same goes for spelling and grammatical mistakes as I do this all on my phone. I'm very impressed with the ammount of interest this topic generated and I would like to thank everyone for this wonderful discussion! Ya'll rock!
 
Personally, if it comes to making Paraguay an Empire (I personally believe it is possible), I'd probably focus on Bolivia. Bringing Bolivia and its resources under control could certainly help with increasing the economic strength of Paraguay. Declared to ostensibly end Bolivias claims on Paraguayan territory, victory there gives Paraguay access to the mountains, and the mineral resources there - and as such can help with industrialisation and the development of a strong industrial and consumer economy to back up the army.

This also means that if Paraguay can recruit from the Bolivians, and develop skills for fighting in the mountains, the extra manpower can be used to open up a Mountain front against Argentina, forcing Argentina to fight near the mountains.

Same premise (on the same territory ironically) can be part of the justification to invade Argentina - but with battle-hardened troops, and Bolivian Mountaineers, that war should be much easier than fighting three countries at once! Capturing a pathway to the coast, even if it means being insanely close to Buenos Aires means that Paraguay can partake in international trade without having to rely on an intermediary country - at which point an export economy could be built up.

After that, the remaining Spanish countries are easier to take, especially with a decent mountaineer force - leaving Brazil and the remainder of Argentina - Argentina 2 should be easier. That is an empire, after which it comes down to being big enough to take out Brazil, potentially by having a powerful fleet and preventing them from exporting.

If done slowly, or well, hypothetically Paraguay could be an empire by the turn of the century, and a continent spanning one by the 30s. Maybe earlier under certain conditions.

Sorry if it is a bit wish-washy, I'm not very familiar with the economic and military abilities of Latin America.
 
Personally, if it comes to making Paraguay an Empire (I personally believe it is possible), I'd probably focus on Bolivia. Bringing Bolivia and its resources under control could certainly help with increasing the economic strength of Paraguay. Declared to ostensibly end Bolivias claims on Paraguayan territory, victory there gives Paraguay access to the mountains, and the mineral resources there - and as such can help with industrialisation and the development of a strong industrial and consumer economy to back up the army.

This also means that if Paraguay can recruit from the Bolivians, and develop skills for fighting in the mountains, the extra manpower can be used to open up a Mountain front against Argentina, forcing Argentina to fight near the mountains.

Same premise (on the same territory ironically) can be part of the justification to invade Argentina - but with battle-hardened troops, and Bolivian Mountaineers, that war should be much easier than fighting three countries at once! Capturing a pathway to the coast, even if it means being insanely close to Buenos Aires means that Paraguay can partake in international trade without having to rely on an intermediary country - at which point an export economy could be built up.

After that, the remaining Spanish countries are easier to take, especially with a decent mountaineer force - leaving Brazil and the remainder of Argentina - Argentina 2 should be easier. That is an empire, after which it comes down to being big enough to take out Brazil, potentially by having a powerful fleet and preventing them from exporting.

If done slowly, or well, hypothetically Paraguay could be an empire by the turn of the century, and a continent spanning one by the 30s. Maybe earlier under certain conditions.

Sorry if it is a bit wish-washy, I'm not very familiar with the economic and military abilities of Latin America.

I like the idea of a more Bolivia focused approach-- but it's also worth noting that it's important that if Paraguay takes on Argentina it has to do it before it stabalizes and establishes it's place as the number 2 on the continent, or else any war just got a lot more difficult. Whereas Bolivia actually gets weaker thanks to Chile and Peru. Also important to note that war will cost equitment, and as such if they go to war consistantly they could witness shortages.

I love the ambition in your proposal, but I have to say a Paraguay spanning over Brazil is at most skeptical and unlikely. I don't think Paraguay would be able to hold onto that much Brazilian land. The logistics and force required to beat Brazil in the first place to the point of annexation would be phenomonal, and would surely draw the ire of atleast the US. At most, I see a Paraguayan empire spanning Bolivia, Argentina, Mucho Grasso(Brazil), Rio de la Sul (Brazil) and Uruguay(In comparison to the majority of beliefs on this Thread even my vision of Paraguay is a bit expansive for some). Expanding across the Andes would be quite difficult, and while it is hypotheticly possible for Paraguay to be stronger than Brazil, invading them and spanning the entirety of the continent for me atleast seems out of the realm of possibility.
 
Oh, and how do you guys think an alternate Paraguay would handle their foreign policy? Their relationship with their neighbors and other Latin American countries? Would they align themselves with Great Britain who they already have ties with or sympathize with rising imperialists like themselves such as Germany? Or, as many countries were in South America would they just stay relatively uninvolved in world affairs? Also, how do you think the Monroe Doctrine and the United States would affect Paraguay's behavior/expansion in terms of influence?
 
agree with PaleoT. Straight up Argentina loses to Paraguay. Argentina was a mess, both politically and development wise. Once it looks like P is going to win, the caudillos are going to abandon Buenos Aires, and you're likely to see a balkanization of A. The country was on the verge of balkanization from the time of independence, having been held together only by the supreme caudillo Rosas.

the question, though, is whether Brazil would sit on the sidelines. Could go either way. it's not in Brazil's interest to see either a strong Paraguay or balkanization.

Geography prevents any real advancement in any other direction than Argentina/Brazil/Uruguay. Maybe some minor nibbles at Bolivia, but not much more.

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Some decades later, Paraguay made the Chaco war with Bolivia and won, taking 90% of the Gran Chaco. Why didn't he attack Bolivia first, expanding his power base?
 
Some decades later, Paraguay made the Chaco war with Bolivia and won, taking 90% of the Gran Chaco. Why didn't he attack Bolivia first, expanding his power base?
If I'm not mistaken, one of the reasons the Chaco War happend was because it was expected to have Oil, and in the 1860's oil wasnt very valuable in South America and it's likely the Chaco wasn't prospected for oil at this time. In addition, Bolivia was stronger at the time whereas it was weaker when the Chaco happend OTL.

Edit: But perhaps an earlier invasion of Bolivia would benefit Paraguay. I'm still rather confident that Paraguay would have won, and perhaps more handily allowing Paraguay to take addition territory.
 
Some decades later, Paraguay made the Chaco war with Bolivia and won, taking 90% of the Gran Chaco. Why didn't he attack Bolivia first, expanding his power base?
The Chaco War was fought over oil deposits discovered in the 1920's and partly instigated by Standard Oil and Royal Dutch Shell, with Argentina pushing Paraguay on as well for oil imports. As it turns out, there wasn't as much oil as the corporations claimed.
 
Well, since ANYONE can declare themselves an Emperor (e.g. Bokassa, Central African "Empire"), no doubt a dictator of Paraguay could claim the title and rename the place. That would technically make it an empire. I suppose.
 
As a matter of fact, you don't actually need to have a book about it to understand that Paraguay was just a poor country with a crazy dictator, just think of North Korea and their bombs. Geography is the key issue (and Lopez was aware of that): how can a poor and sparsely populated country, with uneducated people, very little economic resources and with very little access to the international market be a rich country? Even if we assume that López is not Kim Jong-Il and actually is a good public administrator, he's no magician, what could he actually do?

Also, IMHO it doesn't matter how he starts the war, he'd always loose. His best option is gain the support of local Argentinean caudillos and forget Brazil and Uruguay, he'd eventually win war, but, he'll also need to pay back his allies and sacrifice his tyrannic rule, what would simply destroy the Paraguayan power balance.

And Kim Jong-il controlled (and his son still controls) one of the largest armies in the world, that's inherited quite a bit of equipment from China and the Soviets (plus knockoffs of their own). The only issue with them is they happen to be surrounded by far stronger armies. Here with Solano Lopez, his Paraguay is surrounded by armies that can't be of much greater quality, plus with countries far less stable like Argentina and Brazil.

And especially when the anti-Paraguayan forces make mistakes as stupid as the Battle of Curupayty. That seems to inspire hope for Solano Lopez's forces.

Well, since ANYONE can declare themselves an Emperor (e.g. Bokassa, Central African "Empire"), no doubt a dictator of Paraguay could claim the title and rename the place. That would technically make it an empire. I suppose.

I'm kinda amazed Iturbide of Mexico was the only Latin American who ever did. But judging by what I've read on Bokassa, it's the cultural differences of Africa and Latin America that probably explains that. Iturbide is an exception because of the circumstances he became Mexican Emperor in.
 
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