Could Paraguay have been an Empire?

[unprincipled peter]

Paraguay vs Argentina in 1865 is a P victory. not really much of a contest. Argentina was a land of warlords. The north is going to let Buenos Aires lose the war. The problem for Paraguay is that they took on all their neighbors at once. The Brazilian navy took out the Paraguayan navy early, and the Paraguayan army bogged down early, and then it was game over. just took 4 more years for the game to end.

But to answer the OP, Paraguay was never going to be an empire. they could expand borders, but were never going to be anything more than a local power.

I don't think the Paraguayan army was any great juggernaut. For the most part it was a very limited command structure with a general and a mob of very loyal troops. they may have had a slim advantage over two lackluster neighbors, but as soon as the opening salvos were over, they were shown to be very underequiped and not really much of a fighting force. They held on for years because of one thing: defense aided immensely by geography.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Sounds a lot like Japan in WWII--not capable of sustained warfare, but capable of initial surprises in terms of victories. But Paraguay is capable of being a compact and powerful state, although definitely not a South American powerhouse (demographics, size, etc.). I know the idea of the war as a British conspiracy isn't true, but wasn't Paraguay significant more developed comparatively than the neighbouring states thanks to the difference in trade (Britain again) and the odd (to the say the least) style of rule of President Francia? It can be established that Paraguay gained much of their success based on how godawful Argentina and Brazil did in the initial phases of the war, but still. Now, a Paraguay that is a compact and strong power like a Singapore probably isn't realistic, but Asuncion as a commercial capital of South America, Paraguay exerting significant soft power in all South America, Paraguay with the highest GDP per capita and many other strong indicators, that's what Paraguay could be. How realistic, well...not so good, and not as simple as a victory in the War of the Triple Alliance or beating down Argentina in a fight over the disputed regions.

One thing that's interesting, Paraguay might have a far higher percentage of yerba mate exports thanks to the effect of the war on that crop, as well as you'd probably change the entire history of human use and trade of yerba mate since the 1860s by a different result in the war. It was apparently quite the cash crop for Paraguay in the years before (and to a lesser extent, since) the war.

 

[PaleoT]

Sounds a lot like Japan in WWII--not capable of sustained warfare, but capable of initial surprises in terms of victories. But Paraguay is capable of being a compact and powerful state, although definitely not a South American powerhouse (demographics, size, etc.). I know the idea of the war as a British conspiracy isn't true, but wasn't Paraguay significant more developed comparatively than the neighbouring states thanks to the difference in trade (Britain again) and the odd (to the say the least) style of rule of President Francia? It can be established that Paraguay gained much of their success based on how godawful Argentina and Brazil did in the initial phases of the war, but still. Now, a Paraguay that is a compact and strong power like a Singapore probably isn't realistic, but Asuncion as a commercial capital of South America, Paraguay exerting significant soft power in all South America, Paraguay with the highest GDP per capita and many other strong indicators, that's what Paraguay could be. How realistic, well...not so good, and not as simple as a victory in the War of the Triple Alliance or beating down Argentina in a fight over the disputed regions.

One thing that's interesting, Paraguay might have a far higher percentage of yerba mate exports thanks to the effect of the war on that crop, as well as you'd probably change the entire history of human use and trade of yerba mate since the 1860s by a different result in the war. It was apparently quite the cash crop for Paraguay in the years before (and to a lesser extent, since) the war.

Good analysis-- but to answer your question simply yes it was and the crucial reason for this was the decisions made by Dictator Francia. Francia introduced and promoted protectionism which while proven to be detrimental in many modern economies the protectionism allowed Paraguay to develope crucial industries integral to a nation that it otherwise would not had developed due to it's size. Its very likely that if these policies were not in place, Paraguay would have to rely on Brazil and Argentina for goods and resources Paraguay didn't have or utilize-- and it's very foolish to invade a country you rely on economicly. It also made paraguay largely self-sufficient. Another reason was contractors, Francia and later dictators hired European engineers (Usually British Contractors) to do things like run telegraph lines throughout the country. This allowed Paraguay to develope infrastructure surpassing that of it's neighbors. And finally, Paraguay didn't have to take out endless loans like Brazil and Argentina during it's independence/civil wars(Also didn't sufer from the extravagances that authoritian leaders also usually partake in IE building a new BallRoom. . . not saying that the Dictators didn't do such things just that these things didn't bankrupt the country) which lead to a healthy, un-inflated economy in comparison to it's neighbors. However, while I don't have any statistics regarding Paraguay'a GDP but I postulate that it's very likely Paraguay would suffer from income inequality, as the Dictator monopolizes power. Most Paraguayans were also subsidence farmers. Economicly speaking Paraguay was in a good spot geographicly, poised to dominate the rivers which were crucial to inland trade. I think that at the very least should Paraguay survive a war or win it we could see Paraguay exerting heavy amounts of influence around the River Basins giving Paraguay a lot of leverage against it's neighbors especially Argentina.

Also great idea with Yerba Mate industry-- did a little research and the market was booming for it prior to the war and production was on the rise. Demand for it was beginning to make its appearence in the UK. But the war nearly grinded exports to a minimum, and the destruction ofcourse annihilated the farms that produced the crop, hampening production. Essentially, it set the industry back to square one-- while it's unlikely that Yerba Mate would ever overtake Tea or Coffee, the fact that Paraguay dominates production of Yerba Mate means that they could wreap heavy profits from the business. Love the ideas man!

 

[Arkenfolm]

And Paraguay would've basically been the province that Argentina claimed it as. But Francia's austerity is downright incredible, at least according to what I've heard. He'd give Thomas Sankara of Burkina Faso a challenge for "most austere dictator", if the story that all he owned after he died was a yerba mate gourd (as seen in his picture on his Wikipedia article) plus some storage cases for cigars and such. Granted, Thomas Sankara had more of a sane ideology how to run a country in a bad situation (Paraguay in that era, Burkina Faso/Upper Volta in the early 1980s), but what Dr. Francia did was pretty impressive, his own personal psychoses aside (paranoia beyond belief). I suppose the issue for government spending on the ruling class is Dr. Francia's subordinates, since I don't know if Dr. Francia enforced austerity on his underlings like a 19th century version of Thomas Sankara, like Sankara's selling all the government's automobile fleet and forcing them to purchase/use older used automobiles instead among many examples.

But Francia was long dead by the War of the Triple Alliance (the second bloodiest Western Hemisphere war after the American Civil War, correct?), at that point it was the Lopez crew (passing the presidency from father to son is generally never a good sign) in control. They seemed to be in position to open Paraguay up (as they seem to have IIRC) but at the same time preserve Paraguayan economic strength (that fueled the status as "Prussia of Latin America"). I think we can tell that President-Marshal Solano Lopez made some critical miscalculations when he launched the War of the Triple Alliance, but as noted in this thread, it isn't as blatantly stupid as it might seem. Paraguay could win some victories against far stronger foes, as they did OTL, but I've been thinking--it's a bit like Japan in WWII. They can beat the disorganised/obviously understrength (China/Argentina) or the power yet to unleash their might (US/Brazil), but their defeat is inevitable. The main difference I suppose is the Triple Alliance has far more a chance of surrendering than the US/Britain ever did to the aggression thanks on local weakness (Argentina's internal weakness being obvious).

Yerba mate, definitely interesting--I love the stuff myself, and it definitely is something that was underrated and could possibly catch on more than OTL. Based on terrain suitable for the crop (in the Southern Cone alone), Paraguay is unlikely to maintain dominance in mate production, although the fact in the Paraguayan War the mate fields were trampled and torched, leaving Paraguay's mate industry--in the homeland of the crop--at nothing and letting Argentina and especially Brazil as the leader. It's yet another potential for Paraguay to fuel its economy, but as an inland country needs, it needs the rivers (grabbing actual sea access is overrated, the La Plata basin allows for pretty easy navigation upriver) beyond all else and it needs to make sure they are internationally neutral territory with no harassment from the Argentines. As for the potential of yerba mate without the defeat and mass destruction of the War of the Triple Alliance, maybe it could do better in the US given some circumstance that makes the tea market difficult (anti-British sentiment, maybe, plus anti-Chinese not that the US needed any more reasons to hate the Chinese in the 19th century) as well as increased US influence in Latin America at an earlier date. It isn't like it could be any more detrimental than British influence was anyway, so you have more Americans in the Southern Cone bringing home yerba mate, perhaps, to spur a bit of a taste for it. And Paraguay is profitting extensively off of these exports, though of course they need to make sure it isn't like Brazil and the coffee booms.

 

[PaleoT]

And Paraguay would've basically been the province that Argentina claimed it as. But Francia's austerity is downright incredible, at least according to what I've heard. He'd give Thomas Sankara of Burkina Faso a challenge for "most austere dictator", if the story that all he owned after he died was a yerba mate gourd (as seen in his picture on his Wikipedia article) plus some storage cases for cigars and such. Granted, Thomas Sankara had more of a sane ideology how to run a country in a bad situation (Paraguay in that era, Burkina Faso/Upper Volta in the early 1980s), but what Dr. Francia did was pretty impressive, his own personal psychoses aside (paranoia beyond belief). I suppose the issue for government spending on the ruling class is Dr. Francia's subordinates, since I don't know if Dr. Francia enforced austerity on his underlings like a 19th century version of Thomas Sankara, like Sankara's selling all the government's automobile fleet and forcing them to purchase/use older used automobiles instead among many examples.

But Francia was long dead by the War of the Triple Alliance (the second bloodiest Western Hemisphere war after the American Civil War, correct?), at that point it was the Lopez crew (passing the presidency from father to son is generally never a good sign) in control. They seemed to be in position to open Paraguay up (as they seem to have IIRC) but at the same time preserve Paraguayan economic strength (that fueled the status as "Prussia of Latin America"). I think we can tell that President-Marshal Solano Lopez made some critical miscalculations when he launched the War of the Triple Alliance, but as noted in this thread, it isn't as blatantly stupid as it might seem. Paraguay could win some victories against far stronger foes, as they did OTL, but I've been thinking--it's a bit like Japan in WWII. They can beat the disorganised/obviously understrength (China/Argentina) or the power yet to unleash their might (US/Brazil), but their defeat is inevitable. The main difference I suppose is the Triple Alliance has far more a chance of surrendering than the US/Britain ever did to the aggression thanks on local weakness (Argentina's internal weakness being obvious).

Yerba mate, definitely interesting--I love the stuff myself, and it definitely is something that was underrated and could possibly catch on more than OTL. Based on terrain suitable for the crop (in the Southern Cone alone), Paraguay is unlikely to maintain dominance in mate production, although the fact in the Paraguayan War the mate fields were trampled and torched, leaving Paraguay's mate industry--in the homeland of the crop--at nothing and letting Argentina and especially Brazil as the leader. It's yet another potential for Paraguay to fuel its economy, but as an inland country needs, it needs the rivers (grabbing actual sea access is overrated, the La Plata basin allows for pretty easy navigation upriver) beyond all else and it needs to make sure they are internationally neutral territory with no harassment from the Argentines. As for the potential of yerba mate without the defeat and mass destruction of the War of the Triple Alliance, maybe it could do better in the US given some circumstance that makes the tea market difficult (anti-British sentiment, maybe, plus anti-Chinese not that the US needed any more reasons to hate the Chinese in the 19th century) as well as increased US influence in Latin America at an earlier date. It isn't like it could be any more detrimental than British influence was anyway, so you have more Americans in the Southern Cone bringing home yerba mate, perhaps, to spur a bit of a taste for it. And Paraguay is profitting extensively off of these exports, though of course they need to make sure it isn't like Brazil and the coffee booms.

Interesting that you mention Austerity-- if only it would've been mantained. It's sad to say that Austerity in Paraguay died along with the death of Francia. In all honesty though, Lopez gets less credit than he deserves. Had Captain Meza followed his orders in the battle of Riachuelo, it's likely the Brazilian fleet would've been captured. And without control of the rivers, any invasion of Paraguay just got a lot more difficult. Not only that, but control of the Rio De La Plata leaves Argentina extremely vulnerable. While it's not likely Paraguay would win, it's also unlikely that we would see such an absolute devastation of Lopez-- and Lopez was ready to surrender but wouldnt after him stepping out of power was required in the peace deal. A victory at Riachuelo may lead to the Triple Alliance eventually proposing a white peace. (Indeed-- also has the highest death per capita ratio for any war). Lopez's main problem was his obsessiveness-- the Colorados not ruling Uruguay was definitely not worth raging war over, and Uruguay would likely prove to be an impotent ally, as Uruguay doesn't have a good national barrier with Brazil. And as for sea access, I think it'd actually be rather important if it wanted to become a regional power. In order to do so, it would need to have not just a River flotilla but an ocean going fleet. Perhaps in a war with Argentina, they could take the Corrientes and Entre Rio province-- in addition to getting sea access, it would also take away Argentina's Yerba Mate producing provinces(That, along with Misiones which would likeky be secured as part of Paraguay regardless). This could give Paraguay the momentum it needs to mantain dominance in the Yerba industry, although Paraguay would have to beat Argentinia rather handily to get such concessions. Plus, both provinces border the Parana and Uruguay rivers(Also extending it's economic influence into the Uruguay Basin) allowing Paraguay to even further solidify control over the rivers. In my opinion, Nationalization of the Yerba industry would be beneficial to Paraguay instead of having a Western Power step in-- we don't want a repeat of the United Fruit Company in Guatamala happening in Paraguay. However, this would require the austerity you mentioned so as to prevent the Lopez family from just using the income on extravagances instead of infrastructure. As for the coffee booms, I'll need to look those up-- not really educated on them. Also, do you think Paraguay could get the Colorodos back in power in Uruguay without drawing the ire of te Brazilians?

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Good to see some more threads on South America, and Paraguay in particular. I started researching a Paraguayan tl, where they become a Switzerland analog in South America. Imo an easier way for Paraguay to achieve its goals is to focus on boring things like expanding the economy, tackling corruption, strengthening rule of law and improving educational outcomes. Now a well balanced cashed up Paraguay could buy swathes of real estate from Brasil or Argentina, after their inevitable economic meltdowns / Civil Wars for cents in the dollar. That would imo be a smart play.

 

[Dragos Cel Mare]

Well, goes to show that 'The World's Greatest Political Scandals' isn't that good a source for information about Paraguay at that time.

 

[PaleoT]

Well, goes to show that 'The World's Greatest Political Scandals' isn't that good a source for information about Paraguay at that time.

A bit vague. Elaborate if you don't mind.

 

[scholar]

Could? Yes, but it would be a long and difficult road that still probably ends in failure.

 

[Dragos Cel Mare]

A bit vague. Elaborate if you don't mind.

Basically, The World's Greatest Political Scandals focuses quite a bit on Lopez the Second's mistress and the corruption in his administration, as well as says that Lopez was a megalomaniac who wanted to be the Napoleon of S. America and attacked the Triple Alliance for that reason.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Since this is a big thread on the War of the Triple Alliance, what might Paraguay's demographics have been like without that conflict being so horrible and within the modern day borders--I've been wondering? An absolute massacre/famine and severe gender imbalance does not suggest the demographics were very good for a few decades, and I've seen the status of the Guarani language in modern Paraguay attributed in part to the devastation. So would Paraguay have similar or more population assuming the same conditions in Latin America in the 20th century assuming Paraguay didn't suffer as bad in the conflict?

Interesting that you mention Austerity-- if only it would've been mantained. It's sad to say that Austerity in Paraguay died along with the death of Francia. In all honesty though, Lopez gets less credit than he deserves. Had Captain Meza followed his orders in the battle of Riachuelo, it's likely the Brazilian fleet would've been captured. And without control of the rivers, any invasion of Paraguay just got a lot more difficult. Not only that, but control of the Rio De La Plata leaves Argentina extremely vulnerable. While it's not likely Paraguay would win, it's also unlikely that we would see such an absolute devastation of Lopez-- and Lopez was ready to surrender but wouldnt after him stepping out of power was required in the peace deal. A victory at Riachuelo may lead to the Triple Alliance eventually proposing a white peace. (Indeed-- also has the highest death per capita ratio for any war). Lopez's main problem was his obsessiveness-- the Colorados not ruling Uruguay was definitely not worth raging war over, and Uruguay would likely prove to be an impotent ally, as Uruguay doesn't have a good national barrier with Brazil. And as for sea access, I think it'd actually be rather important if it wanted to become a regional power. In order to do so, it would need to have not just a River flotilla but an ocean going fleet. Perhaps in a war with Argentina, they could take the Corrientes and Entre Rio province-- in addition to getting sea access, it would also take away Argentina's Yerba Mate producing provinces(That, along with Misiones which would likeky be secured as part of Paraguay regardless). This could give Paraguay the momentum it needs to mantain dominance in the Yerba industry, although Paraguay would have to beat Argentinia rather handily to get such concessions. Plus, both provinces border the Parana and Uruguay rivers(Also extending it's economic influence into the Uruguay Basin) allowing Paraguay to even further solidify control over the rivers. In my opinion, Nationalization of the Yerba industry would be beneficial to Paraguay instead of having a Western Power step in-- we don't want a repeat of the United Fruit Company in Guatamala happening in Paraguay. However, this would require the austerity you mentioned so as to prevent the Lopez family from just using the income on extravagances instead of infrastructure. As for the coffee booms, I'll need to look those up-- not really educated on them. Also, do you think Paraguay could get the Colorodos back in power in Uruguay without drawing the ire of te Brazilians?

White peace is definitely Paraguay's best goal. Brazil and Argentina can outproduce them and more easily rebuild a fleet, not to mention the manpower needed. But that will take time, and Brazil and Argentina might just throw their hands in the air and take Lopez's peace offer. I've mentioned WWII Japan a lot in this thread, because they're so similar. Nations that fought to the bitter end (Japan easily could've have in 45-46) for goals so out of reach, even though they could bunch well above their theoretical power. That's why Paraguay must be very careful, but at the same time, Imperial Brazil in the 1860s isn't the United States in the early 1940s--it's a country that could easily settle for a white peace. You're right about Solano Lopez--he's a lot less insane than he's portrayed as in many accounts. He's one of history's gamblers--take his contemporary Robert E. Lee for another man who gambled a ton on battles and won more often then not (until he inevitably lost). But Francia himself is often considered insane, even though for his context, it's difficult to find a better guy to deal with the hand he was dealt.

As far as I know with Uruguay, anything with the Colorados will mean more rounds of the Uruguayan Civil Wars, meaning the place will take longer to stabilise. Not sure what the status of the place between Brazil and Argentina was in the 19th century--like the UK and Belgium? Obviously the Cisplatine War and such, but later on? Adding a third power seems like you'd have to rewrite the political situation of the region. It seems a flashpoint and an area of instability--Paraguay would be best to be very careful, since it's an obvious place for a casus belli from Brazil or Argentina to come from.

I'm still not convinced with the need for an ocean port, and if that would be in Paraguay's best interest. Adding Corrientes and Entre Rios means two powerful Argentine provinces are now in Paraguay. That means their governors will now be some of the most powerful individuals in the country. Look at General Urquiza--right from Entre Rios. Corrientes and Entre Rios might be good, but might also be bad, and will definitely be throwing a huge wild card into play for the future of Paraguay, all for the sake of some ocean front which could be effectively secured through enforcement of treaty rights and a strong army/riverine navy. But that definitely grabs most all of Argentina's mate-producing land, so that might have some positive effects but at the same times, allow the local governors a lot of control over what happens. But in practice, they can still maintain somewhat of a parity with Brazil assuming there isn't mate planting anywhere else it might be suitable based on how it catches on (i.e., a US planter in the Deep South experimenting with it, where it'll probably grow if my research is right, the Ottomans--mate is popular in parts of the Arab world, evidently, could it be produced there, colonial efforts in Africa in the 1880s onwards). A lot does depend on how much it catches on--I don't know how much the relation of the various plants of the Ilex family were known in the 19th century, but it appears as though yerba mate and the US South yaupon have overlapping ranges if you cared to transplant the crops there. Something individuals in the Deep South might appreciate if the country ever finds itself a taste for mate. It'll probably work better than the coffee and tea plantations in the US South ever did. And that cuts into the revenue potential of mate for Paraguay and the rest of the region--what's the point of gaining all this mate-cultivating land when Georgia, South Carolina, etc. are outcompeting you?

"Banana republic" type rule as in Central America might only happen if yerba mate catches on in the US or Europe, and the right capitalists meet up and plot something nefarious out for how to gain a market. Okay, maybe not that obviously evil, but it definitely takes scheming to control governments like United Fruit did in Honduras and such, and of course plenty of money to dish out the bribes to various politicians.

I'm not too familiar with the coffee booms either, but from what I've read, that's what gave Brazil the power to do things like buy their dreadnoughts and thus spark the South American dreadnought race.

Good to see some more threads on South America, and Paraguay in particular. I started researching a Paraguayan tl, where they become a Switzerland analog in South America. Imo an easier way for Paraguay to achieve its goals is to focus on boring things like expanding the economy, tackling corruption, strengthening rule of law and improving educational outcomes. Now a well balanced cashed up Paraguay could buy swathes of real estate from Brasil or Argentina, after their inevitable economic meltdowns / Civil Wars for cents in the dollar. That would imo be a smart play.

Switzerland is the Paraguayan ideal. It's not likely to be achieved, but they could come close enough and still be the best in Latin America.

But real estate? Mostly chunks of the Chaco and the Pantanal, plus Misiones. I don't see Argentina or Brazil parting with anything more, unless at extreme gunpoint (which Paraguay might find difficult to enforce because of sheer logistics).

Plus for Rio Grande do Sul, another potential Paraguayan outlet to the sea, that would rather be an independent nation than be ruled by Paraguay. Didn't they revolt twice? Once in 1836 and later during the transition to the Brazilian Republic (with a bit less support?). Paraguay could rule a puppet Rio Grande do Sul, but would find it too difficult to actually rule the place.

 

[Gukpard]

Ok, here it goes

First, Paraguay was never a Prussia and neither developed, this come from a Brazilian movement from the 70s called "Revisionist school" that rewrote the paraguaian war, so much that even in the english version of wikipedia there is a warning about this

Paraguay was poor, extremely poor, the only farms they had were owned by Solano's family, they had one (poor maintened) railway, the paraguayan army was great, but it was inneffective, so much that they always had horrible losses even while defending positions, most of them had virtually no training as the war continued

So it is a no, Paraguay couldn't even beat Argentina alone, even if they somehow conquered Corrientes, it would be a question of time until the argentinians pushed them back, they didn't even had enought resources to supply their occupation force, the paraguayan war was a curb stomp battle in all senses, it is ABS to consider the idea of a paraguayan empire

Edit: their best case scenario is to have some moderate to coup Solano and focus developing paraguay

 

[GrinningSatyr]

Couldn't Paraguay split Argentina in two by supporting one side's independence— in ex change for, example, river access and economic advantages? A friendly/ostensibly neutral buffer state carved out if a major rival doesn't seem like too bad an option

(Corrientes and Entre Rios "independent", Misiones to Paraguay?)

 

[Arkenfolm]

Ok, here it goes

First, Paraguay was never a Prussia and neither developed, this come from a Brazilian movement from the 70s called "Revisionist school" that rewrote the paraguaian war, so much that even in the english version of wikipedia there is a warning about this

Paraguay was poor, extremely poor, the only farms they had were owned by Solano's family, they had one (poor maintened) railway, the paraguayan army was great, but it was inneffective, so much that they always had horrible losses even while defending positions, most of them had virtually no training as the war continued

So it is a no, Paraguay couldn't even beat Argentina alone, even if they somehow conquered Corrientes, it would be a question of time until the argentinians pushed them back, they didn't even had enought resources to supply their occupation force, the paraguayan war was a curb stomp battle in all senses, it is ABS to consider the idea of a paraguayan empire

Edit: their best case scenario is to have some moderate to coup Solano and focus developing paraguay

I know English Wikipedia has issues on that article. I know my main source on the Paraguayan War, Eduardo Galeano (a Uruguayan), is very biased and has an ideological axe to grind, as great as he is in expressing it. Care to cite your sources? I can understand Portuguese, as much as I'd rather have English citations.

But certainly Paraguay could at least be the "Japan" (I keep mentioned WWII Japan because to me it seems a good analogue) against Argentina's "Republic of China" with Brazil being I don't know, the United States? Their success clearly shows that they were not as bad as you think--they couldn't stand up to a true war, but for what it was worth, they could do well enough. And Argentina was a mess. Sure, Solano Lopez was a bit crazy (but that brings up the idea of insanity and genius, after all), but the place was still in the stage of "getting better". I find it difficult to believe that Paraguay couldn't have at least beat Argentina in that era.

 

[Gukpard]

But certainly Paraguay could at least be the "Japan" (I keep mentioned WWII Japan because to me it seems a good analogue) against Argentina's "Republic of China" with Brazil being I don't know, the United States?

Their success clearly shows that they were not as bad as you think--they couldn't stand up to a true war

Their "early success" only happened because the border wasn't guarded, they simple invaded, looted and raped, so much that after the imperial army arrived at Uruguaiana they simple surrendered, in argentina during the battle of Yatay they got 1200 captured and 1700 dead to kill/wound only 350 alliance soldiers

Sure, Solano Lopez was a bit crazy (but that brings up the idea of insanity and genius, after all)

He sent unarmed children to the front, and you still call him as a genius?

 

[PaleoT]

Their "early success" only happened because the border wasn't guarded, they simple invaded, looted and raped, so much that after the imperial army arrived at Uruguaiana they simple surrendered, in argentina during the battle of Yatay they got 1200 captured and 1700 dead to kill/wound only 350 alliance soldiers



He sent unarmed children to the front, and you still call him as a genius?

In the early part of the war, Paraguay was doing quite the opposite to what you said-- they rolled over allied forces, rapidly taking forts like Nova Coimbra and Dourados. The Paraguayan fleet kicked out the Argentine riverine forces early in the war in the battle of the Parana. Paraguay rolled over the garrisons of the places they invaded, and the tide only turned after the battle of Richeula when Paraguay lost control over the rivers. A battle which Paraguay likely would have won should Captain Meza have followed orders. And the allegations of "looting and rape" are likely exageratted on part of the allies-- truth be told, the Argentine force would have lost at Uruguaina regardless. It can be attributed to painting your enemy in a bad color. And when the allies turned the tied it was often due to superior numbers, and Lopez had the intelligence to hold on in strongpoints in the form of riverine forts which for a long time were impregnable.

As for the children, there isn't actually much evidence that he did deploy them and the only sure fire accounts of children being used in the war occur towards the end where Lopez's sanity degenerated even more. Also, while it is a great moral travesty, one's ethics and "goodness" does not necessarily determine intelligence. For instance, Hitler is often considered by many to still be "intelligent" even though his actions proved to be nefarious beyond some people's comprehension. Lopez was shown to be confident and adept albeit perhaps a bit obsessive when it came to war.

However, while we do stand at odds on this debate-- I'm curious what else your source says. Could I have a link or?

 

[PaleoT]

Couldn't Paraguay split Argentina in two by supporting one side's independence— in ex change for, example, river access and economic advantages? A friendly/ostensibly neutral buffer state carved out if a major rival doesn't seem like too bad an option

(Corrientes and Entre Rios "independent", Misiones to Paraguay?)

Paraguay actually more or less banked on that happening-- it was expected that the Caudillo of Entre Rios and Corrientes would rise up in support of Paraguayans but after Paraguay declared war on Argentina the Caudillo announced support for the Argentines-- for reasons I don't entirely understand. I would like to see Corrientes and Entre Rios become part of Paraguay though, which would be of great value to Paraguay but I can see the value of a buffer state.

 

[Lampiao]

I know English Wikipedia has issues on that article. I know my main source on the Paraguayan War, Eduardo Galeano (a Uruguayan), is very biased and has an ideological axe to grind, as great as he is in expressing it. Care to cite your sources? I can understand Portuguese, as much as I'd rather have English citations.

IIRC the book that showed to the greater audience the basic mistakes of an ideological interpretation is "Maldita Guerra" of Francisco Doratioto (it's a Brazilian book but I just saw there's a Spanish translation). Interesting read to most Latin Americans, who are accustomed to Marxist propaganda whenever there's a history discussion.

But certainly Paraguay could at least be the "Japan" (I keep mentioned WWII Japan because to me it seems a good analogue) against Argentina's "Republic of China" with Brazil being I don't know, the United States? Their success clearly shows that they were not as bad as you think--they couldn't stand up to a true war, but for what it was worth, they could do well enough. And Argentina was a mess. Sure, Solano Lopez was a bit crazy (but that brings up the idea of insanity and genius, after all), but the place was still in the stage of "getting better". I find it difficult to believe that Paraguay couldn't have at least beat Argentina in that era.

As a matter of fact, you don't actually need to have a book about it to understand that Paraguay was just a poor country with a crazy dictator, just think of North Korea and their bombs. Geography is the key issue (and Lopez was aware of that): how can a poor and sparsely populated country, with uneducated people, very little economic resources and with very little access to the international market be a rich country? Even if we assume that López is not Kim Jong-Il and actually is a good public administrator, he's no magician, what could he actually do?

Also, IMHO it doesn't matter how he starts the war, he'd always loose. His best option is gain the support of local Argentinean caudillos and forget Brazil and Uruguay, he'd eventually win war, but, he'll also need to pay back his allies and sacrifice his tyrannic rule, what would simply destroy the Paraguayan power balance.

 

[Gukpard]

In the early part of the war, Paraguay was doing quite the opposite to what you said-- they rolled over allied forces, rapidly taking forts like Nova Coimbra and Dourados. The Paraguayan fleet kicked out the Argentine riverine forces early in the war in the battle of the Parana. Paraguay rolled over the garrisons of the places they invaded, and the tide only turned after the battle of Richeula when Paraguay lost control over the rivers. A battle which Paraguay likely would have won should Captain Meza have followed orders. And the allegations of "looting and rape" are likely exageratted on part of the allies-- truth be told, the Argentine force would have lost at Uruguaina regardless. It can be attributed to painting your enemy in a bad color. And when the allies turned the tied it was often due to superior numbers, and Lopez had the intelligence to hold on in strongpoints in the form of riverine forts which for a long time were impregnable.

as I said "Their "early success" only happened because the border wasn't guarded", their advance ended as soon they meeted the argentinian and brazilian forces so much that they only defeated the two argentinian ships "25 de mayo" and "Gualeguay" because both were being repaired when the paraguayans attacked, the 25 de mayo had only 80 men and one artillery piece working, while the Gualeguay was docked with just a sublieutnant in command

nd the allegations of "looting and rape" are likely exageratted on part of the allies

Those accusations of loot and rape are not even teached here since the 1970s, but according to historian Leandro Narloch (he's biased too, but he got good sources, so much that he was called to the THC documentary about the war) they happened, and A LOT

there isn't actually much evidence that he did deploy them

Here a quote by the brazilian officer Dionisio Cerqueira about the use of children in the war, just after the end of the battle of Campo Grande:

"The camp was full of dead and wounded of the enemy, among which caused us great pity the great number the soldiers covered in blood with his broken legs, many not having reached puberty yet, as they were daring to fire at the poor boys, and fought a terrible struggle that between Christian piety and military duty, our soldiers said it wasnt brave we fight so many children "

My sources are divided in two documentaries, the first being "A última guerra da Plata" that have historians from both the alliance and Paraguay on it and the THC documentary "A nossa grande guerra" that is biased towards the paraguayan side

There are also the book "A guerra é nossa" from Alfredo da Mota Menezes, that I'm still reading

while it is a great moral travesty, one's ethics and "goodness" does not necessarily determine intelligence.

yes, and Solano fails miserably at it too

he invaded two countries at the same time, with both having over eight times the population of paraguay plus foreign friends, he them proceded to fight a "total war" even without guns, ammo or even the manpower to do it and ended using children as it cannon fodder, at the end he even committed the hightest crime a leader can do, he became a traitor as he tried to escape to Bolivia, but he was interceptated before and killed

 

[PaleoT]

I think people are vastly overestimating Argentina. If Paraguay declared war on Argentina the date that it did the standing troop counts is 4 to 1 with Paraguay having the numerical advantage--(Also important to note that Paraguayan divisions performed better on the Battlefield) and it's likely the Paraguyans would secure Entre Rios and Corrientes as they did in the war of the Triple Alliance. . and no Brazil means no battle of Richeula which also means that Paraguay mantains river dominance. It's also easy to forget Argentina's geopolitical position. All of it's neighbors had territorial disputes, Argentina suffered from numerous civil wars and was divided among quarreling war lords. They were also in debt, and it's also interesting to note that Paraguay was not. I think what happens is people look on paper or the maps and say: "Hey, Argentina has so much more people and land. Easy win, right?". But more people doesn't mean more troops-- theres a reason they only had around 60,000 troops. They didn't have the equitment to raise more and much of Argentina's Resources and Manpower was in the hands of Caudillos. If Buenos Aires was to fall, it's likely Argentina would collapse in on itself-- Buenos Aires is the centrifuge of federal power and influence. Not only that, but with control of the rivers Paraguay's invasion is much less of a logistical burden, and the more defensible Paraguayan geography in addition to river control would make any Argentine counter offensive unlikely to bare fruit.

While I've conceded previously that a War of Triple Alliance is a loss for the Paraguayans, but I don't think I can say that Paraguay would lose against the Argentines one on one. Argentina was just a mess at the time.