Could North Korea have ever won the Korean War in its early stage?

On the other hand, the American administration has never been the best at guessing the intentions of Moscow.

The same of course applies in reverse with the Soviets and Washington.

The general sentiment seems to have been guessing when a hardliner military-coup would take over the Kremlin/White House
 
So if North Korea did win, would it be the hellhole that we know it as today, or would it have more resources and it's Japanese leftovers to create a strong Korea?
 
So if North Korea did win, would it be the hellhole that we know it as today, or would it have more resources and it's Japanese leftovers to create a strong Korea?
It would depend on which branch of communism they decide to follow. The Maoists way (of which Juche seems to be a subshoot of) has led to nothing but death and destruction for its adherents.

But with much more resources avaliable to it, and maybe a 10% military spending budget, it certainly couldnt be worse.
 
It would depend on which branch of communism they decide to follow. The Maoists way (of which Juche seems to be a subshoot of) has led to nothing but death and destruction for its adherents.

But with much more resources avaliable to it, and maybe a 10% military spending budget, it certainly couldnt be worse.

Both you and I are being off-topic. This thread is like an AHC, not an WI.

As for Maoism v. other ways of communism, the Stalinist doctrine of "Industrialisation at any cost" (i.e. the guiding light for Great Leap Forward) brought much, much more death and sufferings than the Cultural Revolution ever could.

Juche thoughts was an attempt by North Korea to rid itself of BOTH Chinese and Soviet influences. The "self-reliance" mentality in Juche-ism actually kick started earlier than the Chinese one, when Mao was still busy putting "anti-soviet" people into prisons.

Personally, I think a unified communist Korea would be more like Vietnam and Yugoslavia: it'll be unorthodox in ideology, like IOTL. But it will also be early to introduce market economy, because with the ROK gone, the west would be forced to deal with the DPRK (which is much desired by the latter as they always need the west to balance out China and Russia).

The current pathetic state the North Koreans are in is not entirely of their own choice. One thing is clear, they certainly wants to trade with the world and loathes the sanctions imposed upon them.

It's not that North Korean leaders do not want to reform. Kim Jong Il, for example, admires Park Chung-Hee's economic achievements. The real hindrance to reform is the fear among the leadership that once North Korea becomes economically and culturally influenced by the South, a South-led unification becomes inevitable. Such fear would not be there in a unified Communist Korea.

A North Korea which could unify whole peninsula would definitely be much more confident than IOTL, and much more daring to reform.
 
Both you and I are being off-topic. This thread is like an AHC, not an WI.

As for Maoism v. other ways of communism, the Stalinist doctrine of "Industrialisation at any cost" (i.e. the guiding light for Great Leap Forward) brought much, much more death and sufferings than the Cultural Revolution ever could.
Which is presumably why the Russians abandoned Stalinism shortly after Stalin's death for a much more moderate path.

The issue at hand for Korea once they reach the stage where they can start trying to sort things out wouldnt be deciding between Maoism and Stalinism (and thats a shitty choice if there ever was one), but drawing influence from Khrushchev's family friendly communism, and Mao's errrm Maoism.

Having China as your biggest backer makes things kind of awkward when it comes to ideology (Cambodia, Albania etc), but assuming Korea dont let themselves be pulled too deep into the Chinese orbit (or invaded) its likely things would turn out much better.
 
Which is presumably why the Russians abandoned Stalinism shortly after Stalin's death for a much more moderate path.

The issue at hand for Korea once they reach the stage where they can start trying to sort things out wouldnt be deciding between Maoism and Stalinism (and thats a shitty choice if there ever was one), but drawing influence from Khrushchev's family friendly communism, and Mao's errrm Maoism.

Having China as your biggest backer makes things kind of awkward when it comes to ideology (Cambodia, Albania etc), but assuming Korea dont let themselves be pulled too deep into the Chinese orbit (or invaded) its likely things would turn out much better.

It's a false dilemma.

In this scenario, with the full support of the USSR, Kim pushed the capitalist forces into the sea before Inchon landing could be made, a scenario which made China irrelevant. Think OTL Mongolia.

OTL, Shortly after Stalin's death, Kim Il Sung purged both the pro Russia "Moscow Faction Dogmatists" and the pro-China "Yanan Faction Sadae-ists".

Imagine a world where China never helped North Korea, and North Korea could unify the whole peninsula with Russian help. I could imagine Korea to be fearcely pro-Moscow and anti-China.
 
Henry Kissinger has a theory that Stalin deliberately didn't provide sufficient aid to Kim Il Sung, allowing the US to continue fighting after Pusan. This would lead to UN troops approaching the Yalu River, putting Mao in a lose-lose situation: either accept the US at his doorstep, or fight the US directly. Stalin's goal was to prevent Mao and Truman from forming a strategic anti-Soviet alliance, which was being considered in Washington.

North Koreans nearly did achieve that victory. A slight delay on our part, in some cases a matter of a few hours, would have seen them occupy all of Korea

If both statements above are true, then there is a possibility that Kim pushed the UN forces into the sea despite Stalin's plan to starve him. Such "accidental" unification can lead to a very interesting post-war Korea.

I guess what dgharis meant is that if the US delays by a few hours, the Pusan Perimeter could not even be formed?
 
If both statements above are true, then there is a possibility that Kim pushed the UN forces into the sea despite Stalin's plan to starve him. Such "accidental" unification can lead to a very interesting post-war Korea.

I guess what dgharis meant is that if the US delays by a few hours, the Pusan Perimeter could not even be formed?

That is correct. In some sectors the defenses were in place mere hours before the North Korean forces arrived. Delay even one day and the perimeter would have been overrun before the forces were in place to defend it.

As for what happens if the North Koreans do conquer the south and are allowed to keep it, probably something analogous to Vietnam. Still not the best place to live, but nowhere near the present-day nightmare.
 
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