Could no smallpox in 1520 have saved the Aztecs?

CalBear

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Would it be fair to say that the fact that it was an entire package of diseases that all arrived pretty much at once that compounded the damage, more than just the sum of the parts?

For example, say that small pox would kill 10% of a population, measles 10%, and influenza another 10% (purely demonstrative number there). All of them arriving at once would likely kill more than just 30%, I would imagine. Correct presumption?

In general yes, but the percentages are simply mind numbing.

The death rate could be dramatic, and there was no knowing in advance. As an example, Cuba lost 1/3 of the the entire population to smallpox in 1519, a measles outbreak a few years later took out 2/3 of the survivors, leaving only about a quarter of the pre-contact population alive. A few years later, these survivors were effectively non-existent, having been finished off by further illnesses and the general abuses.

Overall perhaps as few as 5% of New World populations survived the Colombian Exchange.
 
The first contact between East Asia and Europe was fundamentally different from the first Mesoamerica-Europe contact, which was fundamentally different from the first West Africa-Europe contact.

That means different reactions.

There was no "first contact" between Europe and Mesoamerica- Eurasia has been one big system from the get go. Likewise West Africa was tied to Islam (including the Med sphere) for centuries.

Finally I think people are making the assumption that Spain was hellbent on colonizing. Without Cortez' success I don't see how they wluld put forth the effort. They didn't have GPS and didn't k ow about the gold etc. They didn't know what was goi g on thousands of miles away let alone have some sort of EUIV level of control over it.

If Cortex dies I do t think you get another expedition (do note that he basically defied the local governors orders and was acting on his own) for decades and it's not going g to be a major military undertaking. It took decades for the New World to start payi g off even OTL band one could a largur that it didn't really. India and China were the big jackpots that Europeans were after- spices were like oil, silk like gold.
 
There was no "first contact" between Europe and Mesoamerica- Eurasia has been one big system from the get go. Likewise West Africa was tied to Islam (including the Med sphere) for centuries.

Finally I think people are making the assumption that Spain was hellbent on colonizing. Without Cortez' success I don't see how they wluld put forth the effort. They didn't have GPS and didn't k ow about the gold etc. They didn't know what was goi g on thousands of miles away let alone have some sort of EUIV level of control over it.

If Cortex dies I do t think you get another expedition (do note that he basically defied the local governors orders and was acting on his own) for decades and it's not going g to be a major military undertaking. It took decades for the New World to start payi g off even OTL band one could a largur that it didn't really. India and China were the big jackpots that Europeans were after- spices were like oil, silk like gold.


But the Spanish are hellbent on the conversion of the infidel. To remove this is to remove the Spanish character of the time which was based upon the crusades against Al-Andalus. While I agree it is not inevitable it is still likely for Spain to at least send missionaries when those missionaries bite off more than they can chew; then I can see the Spanish coming to their aid.
 
If Cortex dies I do t think you get another expedition (do note that he basically defied the local governors orders and was acting on his own) for decades and it's not going g to be a major military undertaking.

If Cortez dies there will be another Cortez. As you point out he defied the orders of the Royally appointed Governor. This though is not surprising we have in Spain at the time a whole Hidalgo culture, these are persons of noble birth but without title and thus little property to go with the name. So you have a swarm of military trained young men anxious for land and wealth and reputation.

It is true that the Spanish Empire really did not pay off for Spain, though for a long time it promised to but part of the reason for that was that it was part of no grand design but the actions of adventurers on the ground with the Royal Authorities racing to catch up.
 
Once the Europeans arrived in America, Native Americans were doomed anyway, because they could not face all the epidemics the Europeans brought.

Mind that even some tribes succumbed to smallpox without a direct contact with the Europeans (but through another tribes that were infected by the Europeans).
 
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