Could Nazi Germany defeat the US in a Cold War peacefully?

[FillyofDelphi]

The French Revolution was not built on a base of genocide or mass murder, it was a side effect of things already there. Mass murder was a feature of Nazism, not a bug.

Mass liquidation of the Slavs yes... but there's a difference between slaughter for the sake of it and cold, calculating, militaristic exploitation that produces the same result at a slower, but more economically beneficial pace. The entire German government and commanf staff is not ideologically driven genocidal maniacs, and it's quite possible the process of integrating the east ends up in the (purely relative) moderate hands and (economically) rationalist minds of the Heer as opposed to the SS. The same way France ended up under a more moderately minded if still tyranical regeime when compared to the Sans Cullotes

 

[rush4you]

We would have to see this in a context of blocs: Nazi Germany, Italy, Vichy France, Romania, Finland, Turkey, independent Arab states, Persia, Spain and others, vs the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil, Mexico, a defeated Japan, Korea, Indonesia and others. With a neutral China, rump USSR and divided India as neutrals, as well as maybe Scandinavia.

So the US probably still wins in the long run, but the Nazi bloc is far from isolated. The diplomatic battles and proxy wars would be in India, most of Africa and parts of Asia, while fascism would be a popular ideology in the Souther Cone of Latin America, and perhaps spark a few revolutions here and there.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Mass liquidation of the Slavs yes... but there's a difference between slaughter for the sake of it and cold, calculating, militaristic exploitation that produces the same result at a slower, but more economically beneficial pace. The entire German government and commanf staff is not ideologically driven genocidal maniacs

no, they weren't most of everyone in power was however, and everyone who wasn't was more than happy to follow along until the war turned against them

it's quite possible the process of integrating the east ends up in the (purely relative) moderate hands and (economically) rationalist minds of the Heer as opposed to the SS. The same way France ended up under a more moderately minded if still tyranical regeime when compared to the Sans Cullotes

Preussische Feldmarschälle meutern nicht good luck finding enough officers to support and successfully coup the Nazi higher-ups and good luck succeeding in that coup

 

[wcv215]

Mass liquidation of the Slavs yes... but there's a difference between slaughter for the sake of it and cold, calculating, militaristic exploitation that produces the same result at a slower, but more economically beneficial pace. The entire German government and commanf staff is not ideologically driven genocidal maniacs, and it's quite possible the process of integrating the east ends up in the (purely relative) moderate hands and (economically) rationalist minds of the Heer as opposed to the SS. The same way France ended up under a more moderately minded if still tyranical regeime when compared to the Sans Cullotes

The Heer was not some rational limiter on the Nazis. They were willing collaborators in every crime the party perpetrated. There is no reason to think they will execute Hitler’s policies with any less zeal than the SS. What’s more, with the Nazis straight-up victorious they will both see themselves as vindicated by the war, and equally be seen as triumphant within the country. Even IF the Heer was theoretically more moderate the ones instituting policy will not be.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

no, they weren't most of everyone in power was however, and everyone who wasn't was more than happy to follow along until the war turned against them



Preussische Feldmarschälle meutern nicht good luck finding enough officers to support and successfully coup the Nazi higher-ups and good luck succeeding in that coup

I'm not talking about a coup. I'm talking about the details of just how the East is going to be handled in terms of achieving the "end goal" of turning the region into an effective resource base for the German economy and a prospetious region for German settler-soldiers. They aren't going to be good, or kind, or put any more thought into Slavic welfare than nessicery, but events on the Eastern Front demonstrate they were more than willing to strech the means authorized by Berlin in order to help achieve the ends they were ordered to when they could get away with it. Considering its so far from Germany, so you really think Hitler is going to start purging the Commissaries who are sending back more taxes and supplies, and where the German settlers are expressing greater happiness and wealth, merely because he's killing the Slavs slowly as serfs rather than building a gas chamber to kill them quickly?

 

[Gudestein]

Hmmm. For this scenario to come about a lot of butterflie has to align neatly for the axis. Will whatever caused this still be relevant post war?
Underlying problem is that its a poorly exported ideology, not a very effective economy and it tend to be particularly bad with intelligent people (at its core, its not just evil, its also stupid). Thats not good in the long run. However, they did have market incentives and might do better than the SU. A major question is how much of the worlds ressources they end up with. Give them the Soviet and middle east Oil and they would have an advantage to almost offset their stupidity.

 

[wcv215]

Considering its so far from Germany, so you really think Hitler is going to start purging the Commissaries who are sending back more taxes and supplies, and where the German settlers are expressing greater happiness and wealth, merely because he's killing the Slavs slowly as serfs rather than building a gas chamber to kill them quickly?

Generalplan Ost did not call for the use of gas chambers to exterminate the population, at least not most of them. It was a program of starvation and working people to death. Killing the Slavs as serfs is PART of the plan, not some deviation.

 

[Anchises]

The Heer was not some rational limiter on the Nazis. They were willing collaborators in every crime the party perpetrated. There is no reason to think they will execute Hitler’s policies with any less zeal than the SS. What’s more, with the Nazis straight-up victorious they will both see themselves as vindicated by the war, and equally be seen as triumphant within the country. Even IF the Heer was theoretically more moderate the ones instituting policy will not be.

Yeah, thats why there was an influential cabal of officers trying to kill Hitler before and during WW2. I am not trying to perpetuate a clean Wehrmacht myth, they were perfectly willing to commit crimes. The Wehrmacht's top echolon had clear political goals though and Hitler isn't going to live forever. As long as Hitler seemed to fullfill Prussian ambitions he was tolerated, when he stopped doing that the Wehrmacht tried to get rid of him.

If his successor tries to enlarge the SS or pull of some other stunt like this he is likely to catch a bullet.

Hitler's reign is classified as a charismatic one and no other Nazi had Hitler's charisma, standing in the population or nimbus of invincibility. Without Hitler the party will have a bumpy ride ahead, if they want to keep the Wehrmacht in check. I don't think it is unlikely that the Party could lose against a Wehrmacht backed political cabal.

Even if the party manages to stay in power, the Wehrmacht is probably going to become a main political influence. The party will be forced to appease the Wehrmacht and there were several influential Wehrmacht officers with "Bismarckian" ideas how to treat the subjugated populations.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Generalplan Ost did not call for the use of gas chambers to exterminate the population, at least not most of them. It was a program of starvation and working people to death. Killing the Slavs as serfs is PART of the plan, not some deviation.

... I agree with this. What I fail to see is how the gradual process of this, combined with the mechanization of agriculture that's going to come with the reshaping of Eastern European agriculture that's going to come as serf labor dies offand Germany heavy industry built up and somewhat rationalized during the war is shifted to civilian production means the Nazi economy would crumble the instant "loot" ran out. Thats the claim I was responding to in the first place

 

[Veiovis]

This scenario is quite possible:

1. If the Germans win the war then they control the economy of Europe/Africa/the Middle East and deny the US access to these regions which will be a huge blow to US economy compared to our history

2. All the innovation like patents,inventions, scientist that were abducted from Europe by the Americans in the 1945-1959 period (around 1,600 German scientists, engineers, and technicians valued at $10 billion in patents and industrial processes) + all the important European inventors that migrated to America in the 1945-1985 period will be denied to the US . This means the US will be lagging behind technologically and economically/developing much more slowly compared to our history

3. Probably the most important point overlooked by all posters above: The US Dollar will NOT become the single/most prominent reserve currency on the planet. This means poof go all the economic advantages the US experienced historically

Frankly a US-German Cold war could see the reverse of what happend in our history - A cornered US, deprived of all advantages it had historically, lagging behind in military technology, forced to invest so much money to catch up with the Germans that it collapses or forfeits.

uhm,what? The US enyoed a comfortable technological lead over the third reich during WWII,and the setup of both countries would have only widened that over time.
and the economic advantages of the US didn't just come from the international order,but from the fact that it had an entiure extremly resource rich continent for themselves,populated by an extremly large population which was both more educated and significantly more wealthy than germanies. that doesn't go puff without invading them.

 

[wcv215]

... I agree with this. What I fail to see is how the gradual process of this, combined with the mechanization of agriculture that's going to come with the reshaping of Eastern European agriculture that's going to come as serf labor dies offand Germany heavy industry built up and somewhat rationalized during the war is shifted to civilian production means the Nazi economy would crumble the instant "loot" ran out. Thats the claim I was responding to in the first place

Amongst other things because they still don't have access to the resources of the wider world, at least not to the massive degree that is necessary for a modern economy. What's more, throughout its history the Nazi state NEVER managed a sustainable economy. In the years leading up to WWII they kept the country's economy functioning by pouring far too much money into the military, which was kept from leading to economic collapse through looting conquered countries. At no point did this behavior ever really change. Furthermore, since a Nazi victory requires a rapid victory there is every likelihood the minor reforms later would ever go through, since a short war means no shift to total war, and therefore there will be no shift back when its over.

Given the certain hostility of the Nazis to the British and Americans, as well as the international order that opposes the fascists, it is doubtful the end of the war will see a shift away from military spending from what happened pre-war OTL. Given that they will need to police a vast conquered territory filled with a hostile population, and heavy partisan activity, it seems far more likely they will have to spend as much or more to try and maintain parity with the West (something they will inevitably fail at due to the scientific limitations mentioned earlier).

Since Hitler would also demand things like a navy you'd also see even more useless investment there. Wonder weapons would likely still exist in some form as well. How much money would be thrown at say the Hortens and their ilk for instance?

The US of course had its own projects that went nowhere, but the US also had more money and resources to throw at problems. And, as a comparison I've made before: the Nazis took 2 billion dollars and made a rocket that killed their own workers more than the enemy. The US took 2 billion dollars and built instant sunshine. They were not an efficient state.

 

[Hades]

uhm,what? The US enyoed a comfortable technological lead over the third reich during WWII,and the setup of both countries would have only widened that over time.
and the economic advantages of the US didn't just come from the international order,but from the fact that it had an entiure extremly resource rich continent for themselves,populated by an extremly large population which was both more educated and significantly more wealthy than germanies. that doesn't go puff without invading them.

That and the Nazis were actually grubbing from the Americans (specifically Robert goddard) than the other way round. Hell if goddard had the resources at the time America would have icbm'd Germany by the 1950s

 

[Anchises]

The US of course had its own projects that went nowhere, but the US also had more money and resources to throw at problems. And, as a comparison I've made before: the Nazis took 2 billion dollars and made a rocket that killed their own workers more than the enemy. The US took 2 billion dollars and built instant sunshine. They were not an efficient state.

The rocketry technology was a failed investment in the sense that it wasn't something able to influence the outcome of the war. Saying that the 2 billion investment produced a basically useless technology is ridiculous though.

The A4/V2 programm was the basis for space flight, ICBMs etc. The Americans used the A4 rocket extensively and stuff like Redstone or Saturn rockets were the direct results of Nazi science.

If the Reich actually survives the war, the 2 billion investment would actually be really useful for a surviving Nazi Reich. There would be a really severe Sputnik shock for the USA. The Nazis probably would have ICBMs fairly quickly after developing the bomb (probably between 1949-1953). Nazi Germany would likely have the first missile subs and tons of other stuff I am to lazy to look up now.

 

[wcv215]

Saying that the 2 billion investment produced a basically useless technology is ridiculous though.

They still spent $2 billion on it, which is a ridiculous amount by comparison.

Meanwhile, while yes the Nazis developed early rockets its not like their contributions were essential to the American program, those technologies could have been developed without the addition of a war criminal. Goddard was frankly better than van Braun, he just didn't have virtually unlimited funds the way the man who escaped the noose did. And "fairly quickly after developing the bomb", so you mean sometime between 1955 and never. Okay. The Nazi atomic program was a shitshow.

 

[Anchises]

They still spent $2 billion on it, which is a ridiculous amount by comparison.

Meanwhile, while yes the Nazis developed early rockets its not like their contributions were essential to the American program, those technologies could have been developed without the addition of a war criminal. Goddard was frankly better than van Braun, he just didn't have virtually unlimited funds the way the man who escaped the noose did. And "fairly quickly after developing the bomb", so you mean sometime between 1955 and never. Okay. The Nazi atomic program was a shitshow.

Rocketry was a really important technology field. The Nazis just deluded themselves into developing unrealistic expectations. That stuff happens, SDI/Star Wars for example but the Nazis lost so there is no one really willing to justify their dumb investments.

And everything I have seen points to the fact that Nazi tech was very essential to the American and Soviet programs. Sure, the Americans would eventually this technologies themselves but they would need vastly more money and time without Nazi expertise. The Americans weren't using V2s in the initial days of their rocketry program because they had better stuff all along...

 

[GDIS Pathe]

The Americans weren't using V2s in the initial days of their rocketry program because they had better stuff all along...

Now is that because of lack of funding or effort or an actual lack of expertise because hint hint its almost certainly the former and if the US puts its back into it the German lead will not last long

 

[Worffan101]

Not without divine intervention.

Economically competing with the United States long term requires a level of foresight and cunning that's completely and utterly alien to an ignorant band of thugs like the Nazis and their death cult of a state religion.

They wouldn't last more than a decade before provoking the US to kick their ass or self-destructing due to mismanagement of their Reich.

This^^^

Not to mention that the US outproduced every other country in WW2 with laughable ease and spent over 40 billion bucks in '40s cash keeping Britain and the USSR supplied over 4 years of WW2. For free. While our economy improved the whole time.

The Nazis would be surrounded by lots of angry people who want them dead and the USA will have an unmatched economy and a shitload of guns. The whole mess would last into the mid-late 1950s and end in a cataclysmic war provoked by a desperate Third Reich and culminating in the nuclear annihilation of the Nazi government and anyone stupid enough to side with them.

 

[wcv215]

And everything I have seen points to the fact that Nazi tech was very essential to the American and Soviet programs. Sure, the Americans would eventually this technologies themselves but they would need vastly more money and time without Nazi expertise. The Americans weren't using V2s in the initial days of their rocketry program because they had better stuff all along...

It was useful, not essential. And frankly, the US HAD the money to throw at the problem. The Nazis have a significantly lower research and development, and won't have computers to speed up things like satellites or better guidance systems. Once the US has transistors they will begin the process of lapping the Nazi research simply due to the lower weight they can use in rockets and the like.

The reason the Nazis got ahead on rocketry is because the US wasn't investing in it. Once that changes the less ideologically chained researchers will pull ahead again.

 

[Anchises]

Now is that because of lack of funding or effort or an actual lack of expertise because hint hint its almost certainly the former and if the US puts its back into it the German lead will not last long

It was useful, not essential. And frankly, the US HAD the money to throw at the problem. The Nazis have a significantly lower research and development, and won't have computers to speed up things like satellites or better guidance systems. Once the US has transistors they will begin the process of lapping the Nazi research simply due to the lower weight they can use in rockets and the like.

The reason the Nazis got ahead on rocketry is because the US wasn't investing in it. Once that changes the less ideologically chained researchers will pull ahead again.

Having the money to throw at a problem doesn't equal throwing money at the problem or seeing that money should be thrown at this particular problem.

The Nazis had a specific strategic reason to invest into rocketry. They believed that spreading terror could break the WAllies but strategic bombing wasn't happening due to allied air superiority. Hence "Vergeltungswaffen" (literally Revenge Weapons).

The Americans would have money to throw at other stuff. Mr. Navy man wants more ships, Mr. Army man wants new tanks, Mr. Churchill wants more loans, Mr. Senator wants social security legislation etc.

The Americans are far more likely to invest into long range bombers imho. Far more "bang for the buck" in potentially attacking Germany, able to carry nuclear bombs and something with ample institutional backing.

 

[machine3589]

-Cold War that ends with the Nazis collapsing due to their economic failures (paralleling the fall of the USSR OTL)

Honestly this is the best case scenario for the Nazis. Even if they win their absolute victory (A-A line, Urals) their system of government has way too many inefficiencies deliberately placed within it that it is doubtful it would survive the post-Hitler power struggle. But I don't consider USSR-like longevity as impossible, provided the system is moderated to become more closer to a vanilla fascist regime with Nazi tint.