Could Mussolini ever conquer most of Europe?

Let’s say...

1918: Italy discovers oil in Libya

1918-1940: With American help Italy begins process of setting up extraction

1932: Isolationist version of Roosevelt elected

1935: Italy stays out of Ethiopia

1937: Japan stays out of China.

1940: France falls, France doesn’t surrender, Italy stays neutral, Italy sells to both sides.

1941: Italy conquers Greece and Yugoslavia, Soviet Union invaded by Germany.

1942: Seeing defects in their military, serious modernization and budget increases come.

1941-1946: Bloody war of attrition ends and leaves Britain broke, Germany and the Soviet Union bled white. In 1946, Japan begins war with Soviet Union and Britain, breaking stalemate.

1947: Soviet Union internally implodes and cedes most of Europe to Germany, who are down to Hitler youth for parts of their military. Britain agree to peace.

1948: Japan continues war with Soviet Union and Britain, tying them down. Italy launches war on Germany. Hitler is almost completely ineffective due to health but incapable of being forced to step down.


In such a scenario, could Italy conceivably conquer Germany and Germany controlled Europe?
 
Italy has a much smaller population than Nazi Germany did (43 million people as opposed to 80 million in the late 30s). Its heavy industry is limited to the Genua-Turin-Milan triangle. Of course oil money could be use to substantially improve infrastructure and invest in the economy, but wouldn't change the fact that most of the coal and steel the Italian war machine would need would have to be imported, which Italy's enemies can use to their advantage. Furthermore, there is a major geographical factor called the Alps. They don't stop at the Italian border and any halfway competent commander with reasonably well equipped forces could stop an Italian invasion in its tracks. Yugoslavia and Greece are basically the most viable targets, with Spain, Tunisia, Turkey and Egypt as clearly more remote possibilities. Under optimum circumstances I can see Italy really turning the Mediterranean Sea into "Mare Nostrum", but conquest of Europe is out of the question IMHO.

As for the rest of the scenario, I don't see Japan holding off until 1946 to go to war with the British. Britain is distracted by the war with Germany and Japan will try to profit from that no later than 1942. This makes American entry almost unavoidable as the Japanese believed an attack on Europe's Southeas Asian colonies would elicit a US response, which prompts them to pre-emptively attack the US. War over by 1945 with nuclear weapons, which will make Mussolini think twice before making a move. Japan will also never attack the USSR given that, as far as they know, Siberia is a frozen wasteland that doesn't have the resources they need.
 
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To be honest, the possibility of Mussolini's Italy conquering Europe is very unlikely. Almost ASB-ish. Especially given the events you just described. I'll admit however that the scenario of "Mussolini restoring the Roman empire and overpowering Germany" has peeked my interest from time to time.
 
Say France goes fascist, and a revived Stresa front stops Germany in its tracks. Once Hitler is gone Germany is grudgingly reconciled, and Poland and the Balkans also brought on board. Then the Fascist Grand Alliance (including Spain and possibly Portugal) picks a fight with the Soviets and Britain....
 

iddt3

Donor
IIRC the tech isn't there to discover and drill the Libyian oil until the 40s, especially outside the US.
 
If I was an advisor to Mussolini, I would recommend not going to war with Germany. I would recommend instead to sell everything that they can to both sides. Using the money, upgrade the Italian infrastructure. I would then build a economic and military alliance with Spain and Portugal. This alliance would allow a reasonable build up of joint military power. The goal is to be strong enough to deter anyone from attacking. Then after the war, I would take my surplus funds and buy part ownership in key British, French, and German companies. Eventually Italy will be a financial powerhouse with all of the soft power that they need. With key investments, they would have a great deal of influence of other countries.
 
1940: France falls, France doesn’t surrender, Italy stays neutral, Italy sells to both sides.

1941: Italy conquers Greece and Yugoslavia, Soviet Union invaded by Germany.

How does that all work? France falling to Germans, but not the way of OTL, probably means a big delay for Barbarossa as the German army is pretty much depleted i'd reckon.

With what empire is Italy going to invade and occupy Greece and Yugoslavia without provoking the UK and France? If they stay out of Ethiopia i think you mean they keep their hands off Albania too, so why do they attack Greece?
 
I think Italy under Mussolini might be imaginably able to lead a fascist coalition in Europe, especially if non-fascist powers are devastated or otherwise disengaged. The plausibility of this given the relative underdevelopment of Italy makes this coalition's supremacy implausible, especially given the unimpressive economic record of Italy under fascism.
 
How about this scenario?

Mussolini decided to coordinate his foreign policy with Franco and thus avoiding joining the war with Germany in 1940, despite seemingly dazzling successes. Instead Italy focuses on developing its Libyan colony, earning much needed revenue by selling oil to the Germans despite British anger which in turn is invested into modernizing the military and further industrializing the country. The modernization of Italy is aided by Italo Balbo continuing to survive and functioning as Mussolini's right hand man. By the time the USSR and the United States join the war on the side of the Allies, Mussolini congratulates himself on his wisdom in avoiding becoming involved. I'm not sure how the war goes without there being a Mediterranean or North African front (do the Allies still undertake Operation Torch in French North Africa? Does Hitler still invade the Balkans and Greece?) but I suspect the result would be Churchill not finding his favourite "soft underbelly of Europe" and instead an earlier D-Day in 1943. As the war's tide shifts in favour of the Allies, Mussolini begins to curry favour with them by limiting trade with Germany and (at the encouragement of the Papacy) even taking in a fair number of Jewish refugees from Nazi occupied Europe. Hitler is naturally enraged at his former ally's betrayal but even he realizes the folly of risking any complete break with Italy. Italy ends up emerging from the war nearly unscathed (despite a few accidental bombings and some shipping being sunk by Allied submarines) and indeed economically prosperous. Some underground communists and the like attempt a rising hoping to lure the Red Army further south to aid them in overthrowing Mussolini, but Il Duce remains popular due to his policy during the war and as a result the rebellion is easily crushed by the police. As signs of a Cold War between the USSR and the US emerge, Mussolini formalizes an alliance with Franco's Spain, Vargas's Brazil, and Peron's Argentina by proclaiming a "Latin League" that will function as a "Third Way" between in the now polarized world. While Italy does not directly receive any Marshall Plan aid due to its fascist regime, the U.S. does nonetheless surrepitiously allocate some money in Mussolini's direction, seeing him as a counterweight to Soviet influence in the Mediterranean. In the next two decades, Italy enters a period of tremendous economic growth especially in the agrarian and poverty-stricken south, which combined with some social welfare measures solidifies the Fascist regime's hold on the country. By 1960, Italy tests its first atomic bomb in the Libyan desert making it one of the great powers of Europe. Due to various butterflies, Cold War tensions prove even worse than OTL and an alternate *Cuban Missile Crisis results in a Third World War between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces. Within days, a full-scale nuclear exchange occurs that devastates northern Europe where the majority of the population is killed either directly or by fallout, disease, and starvation while both the USSR and the U.S. find themselves devastated. The U.S. narrowly "wins" the war but has suffered the loss of many of its major cities and is in no position to aid the stricken continent of Europe. While the Soviets attempted to target some Italian and Spanish cities in the last desperate days of the war, the nearly intact Italian and Spanish air forces were prepared for the eventuality and managed to shoot down the Soviet planes heading in their direction. As the ashes begin to clear on the charnel house that was once Europe, the aged Mussolini finds himself the leader of the most powerful state on the Continent. At the twilight of his life, the vision of a new Rome arising from the ashes can finally be fulfilled...
 
Say France goes fascist, and a revived Stresa front stops Germany in its tracks. Once Hitler is gone Germany is grudgingly reconciled, and Poland and the Balkans also brought on board. Then the Fascist Grand Alliance (including Spain and possibly Portugal) picks a fight with the Soviets and Britain....

That's a fight they'd lose.

How about this scenario?

Mussolini decided to coordinate his foreign policy with Franco and thus avoiding joining the war with Germany in 1940, despite seemingly dazzling successes. Instead Italy focuses on developing its Libyan colony, earning much needed revenue by selling oil to the Germans despite British anger which in turn is invested into modernizing the military and further industrializing the country. The modernization of Italy is aided by Italo Balbo continuing to survive and functioning as Mussolini's right hand man. By the time the USSR and the United States join the war on the side of the Allies, Mussolini congratulates himself on his wisdom in avoiding becoming involved. I'm not sure how the war goes without there being a Mediterranean or North African front (do the Allies still undertake Operation Torch in French North Africa? Does Hitler still invade the Balkans and Greece?) but I suspect the result would be Churchill not finding his favourite "soft underbelly of Europe" and instead an earlier D-Day in 1943. As the war's tide shifts in favour of the Allies, Mussolini begins to curry favour with them by limiting trade with Germany and (at the encouragement of the Papacy) even taking in a fair number of Jewish refugees from Nazi occupied Europe. Hitler is naturally enraged at his former ally's betrayal but even he realizes the folly of risking any complete break with Italy. Italy ends up emerging from the war nearly unscathed (despite a few accidental bombings and some shipping being sunk by Allied submarines) and indeed economically prosperous. Some underground communists and the like attempt a rising hoping to lure the Red Army further south to aid them in overthrowing Mussolini, but Il Duce remains popular due to his policy during the war and as a result the rebellion is easily crushed by the police. As signs of a Cold War between the USSR and the US emerge, Mussolini formalizes an alliance with Franco's Spain, Vargas's Brazil, and Peron's Argentina by proclaiming a "Latin League" that will function as a "Third Way" between in the now polarized world. While Italy does not directly receive any Marshall Plan aid due to its fascist regime, the U.S. does nonetheless surrepitiously allocate some money in Mussolini's direction, seeing him as a counterweight to Soviet influence in the Mediterranean. In the next two decades, Italy enters a period of tremendous economic growth especially in the agrarian and poverty-stricken south, which combined with some social welfare measures solidifies the Fascist regime's hold on the country. By 1960, Italy tests its first atomic bomb in the Libyan desert making it one of the great powers of Europe. Due to various butterflies, Cold War tensions prove even worse than OTL and an alternate *Cuban Missile Crisis results in a Third World War between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces. Within days, a full-scale nuclear exchange occurs that devastates northern Europe where the majority of the population is killed either directly or by fallout, disease, and starvation while both the USSR and the U.S. find themselves devastated. The U.S. narrowly "wins" the war but has suffered the loss of many of its major cities and is in no position to aid the stricken continent of Europe. While the Soviets attempted to target some Italian and Spanish cities in the last desperate days of the war, the nearly intact Italian and Spanish air forces were prepared for the eventuality and managed to shoot down the Soviet planes heading in their direction. As the ashes begin to clear on the charnel house that was once Europe, the aged Mussolini finds himself the leader of the most powerful state on the Continent. At the twilight of his life, the vision of a new Rome arising from the ashes can finally be fulfilled...

Firstly, use spaces please. Walls of text like this don't read well. As to the scenario, it was plausible up until the nuclear war part. Mussolini will be too preoccupied with dealing with the consequences of nuclear fallout and a wider nuclear winter to concern himself with building a new Rome IMHO.
 
That's a fight they'd lose.



Firstly, use spaces please. Walls of text like this don't read well. As to the scenario, it was plausible up until the nuclear war part. Mussolini will be too preoccupied with dealing with the consequences of nuclear fallout and a wider nuclear winter to concern himself with building a new Rome IMHO.


Depends. Britain alone vs France, Italy, and Germany, plus the constellation of European minors (Hungary, Spain, Bulgaria, Austria, Poland+Finland vs the USSR)? That won't go well for the Brits IMO, especially if Japan is up to its usual shenanigans in the far east. Even if they can pull out a win (and I won't put it past them) it's going to be worse than OTL's World War Two especially if the US doesn't get directly involved. Bear in mind that the MN is the fourth largest navy and the number two colonial power, and with the RM and her colonies on top of that, plus German industry, all more or less united in an alloiance- Britain can have a hell of a hard time in the Atlantic, and will probably lose the Med early on.

Likewise I can see a grand "anti-Comintern" alliance of France, Italy, plus Germany giving the Soviets a far worse time than OTL Barbarossa, considering that anti-communism isn't exactly unpopular in the Anglosphere who will probably remain neutral in the initial conflict.

Or to put it another way I think such an alliance might win against either Britain or the USSR, and then be in a position to defeat the other when the dust settles. It's not easy, or likely, but it's possible.
 
Firstly, use spaces please. Walls of text like this don't read well.

My apologies. I have an unfortunate tendency towards writing very long paragraphs at times. Partially it might be my personal quirk that I prefer a continuous paragraph whereas a new paragraph break has a tendency to throw off my reading.

As to the scenario, it was plausible up until the nuclear war part. Mussolini will be too preoccupied with dealing with the consequences of nuclear fallout and a wider nuclear winter to concern himself with building a new Rome IMHO.

I agree that Italy will have to wait a while to actually build a new European system, but I could see Italy immediately occupying certain adjacent areas (such as the Alpes-Maritime department, the Adriatic littoral, Malta, and Cyprus) simply to secure strategic locations and establish a buffer for the postwar chaos.

Ionly inserted the nuclear war to fulfill the OP's challenge since while there many scenarios where Mussolini's Italy can be much more successful than OTL, you can only maker her the dominant power by removing the other European powers from the equation. Even then, it will probably be more akin to a pan-European system where the Italy is the primary power rather than direct annexation and conquest.
 
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