Could Mexico have gone Communist?

Greenville

Banned
The only real time I can see Mexico leaning towards communist revolution is if the civil war it had during World War I extends into the 1920s and a similar movement is inspired there after the establishment of the Soviet Union. Perhaps the USSR and Mexico even become allies. I think the United States would prevent a full scale revolution to communist though.
 

Ak-84

Banned
If there is a communist Government in Mexico, the US would do everything, up to and including nuking everything between Juarez and Chiapas to ensure the Government stops being Communist.
 
The agitation of the communist party has to be more successfull, untill they have enough support for a revolution.

But there has to be the right historical situation for this to happen. Maybe the old government discredits itself, labour strikes are broken up, government shoots into the crowd, government is seen as US proxy, communism and the USSR are seen as a good alternative, etc.

Alternatively one of Mexicos neighbours or allies could become socialist, giving the mexican communists a massive boost in their agitation. Yes there is some truth in the domino theory, but not neccessarily in the bad sense.

This fits not only for Mexico, but basicly for every nation. There is no special time period either.
 
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Mexico was always the "big domino" in communist dreams. But the reality of the Mexican economy is that there have always been too many successful small businesses and anti-communist Catholics (despite Mexico's significant anti-clerical history) to allow a political settlement with real Bolshevik style politics. They had too much trade with the US since the Porfirato era to allow a revolutionary consensus to be openly hostile to the US. You could have true revolutionaries in the Hot Lands like Zapata (but even he was no communist; just a socialist), but in the Norte, you had cowboy revolutionaries like Villa who wanted to reform the system democratically and only took up arms to resist oppression. They would've never tolerated the European-style repression that it took to maintain the Russian or Chinese regimes. Too much of a love for freedom was in the air.

A more successful Communist insurgency and agitation is plausible, and scary, but a final Red victory is not.
 
Mexico was always the "big domino" in communist dreams. But the reality of the Mexican economy is that there have always been too many successful small businesses and anti-communist Catholics (despite Mexico's significant anti-clerical history) to allow a political settlement with real Bolshevik style politics. They had too much trade with the US since the Porfirato era to allow a revolutionary consensus to be openly hostile to the US. You could have true revolutionaries in the Hot Lands like Zapata (but even he was no communist; just a socialist), but in the Norte, you had cowboy revolutionaries like Villa who wanted to reform the system democratically and only took up arms to resist oppression. They would've never tolerated the European-style repression that it took to maintain the Russian or Chinese regimes. Too much of a love for freedom was in the air.

A more successful Communist insurgency and agitation is plausible, and scary, but a final Red victory is not.

Well, it is. Every place going communist is. If the people want, they can get everything done. And if its possible to convince people of shit like fascism or monarchism, it is surely possible to convince them of the liberation of the working class.
 
Well, it is. Every place going communist is. If the people want, they can get everything done. And if its possible to convince people of shit like fascism or monarchism, it is surely possible to convince them of the liberation of the working class.
But that's the rub, he's arguing that the Mexican people, by and large, really didn't want full-on communism.

I have Mexico going communist as part of a WW3 scenario I've been working on for a while, but it's extremely unlikely and largely based off a scenario from a 1988 RAND paper. The Cold War rages on longer while different circumstances (Alvarado continuing to hold to power, Operacion Soberania being launched, etc.) the communists are able to make greater gains in South America (notably taking Peru, Argentina, Venezuela, and El Salvador) and work to spread it elsewhere, including Mexico. The US continues to back the corrupt PRI and even helps it rig the 2000 elections in an effort to keep communists from gaining power in Mexico, which only helps to further radicalize public opinion against the US and for the left. Eventually, an economic downturn roughly corresponding to OTL's Great Recession helps set the stage for a revolution, sparking off a brief but bloody civil war. The US president, having inherited a series of wars in the Middle East and Latin America from his predecessor, declines to intervene despite facing heavy pressure to do so, allowing the Mexican communists (aided by other LACOMs) to seize control of the country.
 
Mexico was always the "big domino" in communist dreams. But the reality of the Mexican economy is that there have always been too many successful small businesses and anti-communist Catholics (despite Mexico's significant anti-clerical history) to allow a political settlement with real Bolshevik style politics. They had too much trade with the US since the Porfirato era to allow a revolutionary consensus to be openly hostile to the US. You could have true revolutionaries in the Hot Lands like Zapata (but even he was no communist; just a socialist), but in the Norte, you had cowboy revolutionaries like Villa who wanted to reform the system democratically and only took up arms to resist oppression. They would've never tolerated the European-style repression that it took to maintain the Russian or Chinese regimes. Too much of a love for freedom was in the air.

A more successful Communist insurgency and agitation is plausible, and scary, but a final Red victory is not.

What about something more home grown rather than just borrowing Russian or Chinese communism?
 
There's always been the idea of Leon Trotsky leading his own revolution in Mexico after he went into exile and making it his own communist nation to counter Stalin's regime. This would easily cause problems for the Comintern and especially for the communist bloc in the cold war if both countries survive until then. Maybe imagine Trotskyist Mexican Relations with the USSR similar to Stalin's relations with Titoist Yugoslavia.

Also, we probably would've built a "wall" much earlier than in our timeline. like, maybe during the Reagan era.
 

Nick P

Donor
A Communist Mexico was a major part of Dallas Down by Richard Moran.
There's been a 5 year drought in Texas, the limestone caves under Dallas have run dry and the city is collapsing into a giant sinkhole (that's the good part).
The evil business men have a plot to steal water from Mexico (daft).
The Mexican Army somehow have Soviet supplied nuclear tipped missiles along the border (where it all gets silly).
The book was written in 1988 and even then it was a weak read, poorly written with cardboard characters and daft techno-thriller gadgets.
 
One thing that is very important and could change US politics forever. If Mexico is a communist state! Most of the Mexican American today would be voting Republican!!! Just like Cuban American vote heavily republican. Democrats would be screwed on latino vote and thus emphasize less on identity politics. USA today would be very conservative!
 
Am I the only one thinking the US could actually support such a regime to be able to set up a different communism from the USSR and weaken it?
 
There's always been the idea of Leon Trotsky leading his own revolution in Mexico after he went into exile and making it his own communist nation to counter Stalin's regime. This would easily cause problems for the Comintern and especially for the communist bloc in the cold war if both countries survive until then. Maybe imagine Trotskyist Mexican Relations with the USSR similar to Stalin's relations with Titoist Yugoslavia.

Also, we probably would've built a "wall" much earlier than in our timeline. like, maybe during the Reagan era.
But Trotsky can't be leader of mexico
 
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