Could Lincoln have lost the 1860 election?

What about a Horace Greeley scenario? Maybe Lincoln gets pneumonia/hit by a carriage/assassinated on a train/killed by vampires at some point after "winning" the election but before the electors meet. Would the Republican electors maintain enough cohesion to appoint Hamlin/Seward/Cassius Clay President? Or would the vote be divided amongst many favorite sons, thus tossing the presidency into the House, perhaps between Breckenridge, Bell, and Douglas. Could Douglas get elected by the 1860 House?

It's interesting, and perhaps plausible to think that a deadlocked House would simply not appoint a President for several months and leave the nation leaderless. At that time, the Presidential line of succession only had four members: the President, the Vice President, the President pro tempore, and the Speaker of the House. Also, the President pro tempore and Speaker were really only "in office" during sessions of Congress. I'm sure Buchanan will call a special session during this emergency, but if for some reason he doesn't, then on March 4th, he and Breckenridge are out of office, and with no Congress yet in session (until December!), there'd be no President.

The Cabinet would probably stay in place, albeit with no one to report to, and I'm not even sure how the military would adjust. Nor the several secessionary states in this scenario, although this could just be like Christmas (1991!) for them and the USA at large.
 
I think Lincoln probably wouldve lost the election if he was less convincing and charismatic in his speeches. Charisma really helps politicians gain votes.

Well, certainly he would not have gotten the nomination if not for such speeches of his as the Cooper Union Speech, the "House Divided" speech, the debates with Douglas, etc. But he actually made no campaign speeches after he was nominated.

And probably any prominent Republican would have won *most* of the states Lincoln won--they had already gone Republican in 1858. Most people voted for the party, not the candidate in those days. To be sure, a different Republican candidate like Seward might have lost a few states Lincoln carried narrowly--California, Oregon, Illinois, and some of the electoral votes of New Jersey. But this would not be enough to defeat him unless he lost some other state as well, and I am not convinced he would have. (Lincoln carried New York by 7.4%, Indiana by 8.7%, Ohio by 10.0%, etc. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1860.txt I can see another Republican candidate not doing as well in some of these states, but not in all likelihood losing them.)
 

TFSmith121

Banned
True; it was a "humour" piece,

Thurber suggested a lot of things.:rolleyes: And while no doubt Grant was stone cold sober that day, equally no doubt he must have imbibed a celebratory snort or two afterwards. More than that he could never have gotten past Rawlins.


True; it was a "humour" piece...

Not quite Walter Mitty.

Best,
 
What about a Horace Greeley scenario? Maybe Lincoln gets pneumonia/hit by a carriage/assassinated on a train/killed by vampires at some point after "winning" the election but before the electors meet. Would the Republican electors maintain enough cohesion to appoint Hamlin/Seward/Cassius Clay President? Or would the vote be divided amongst many favorite sons, thus tossing the presidency into the House, perhaps between Breckenridge, Bell, and Douglas. Could Douglas get elected by the 1860 House?

It's interesting, and perhaps plausible to think that a deadlocked House would simply not appoint a President for several months and leave the nation leaderless. At that time, the Presidential line of succession only had four members: the President, the Vice President, the President pro tempore, and the Speaker of the House. Also, the President pro tempore and Speaker were really only "in office" during sessions of Congress. I'm sure Buchanan will call a special session during this emergency, but if for some reason he doesn't, then on March 4th, he and Breckenridge are out of office, and with no Congress yet in session (until December!), there'd be no President.

The Cabinet would probably stay in place, albeit with no one to report to, and I'm not even sure how the military would adjust. Nor the several secessionary states in this scenario, although this could just be like Christmas (1991!) for them and the USA at large.

Depends exactly when he dies. If it's more than a day or two before the Electoral College meet (1st Wed in December iirc) the Republicans will instruct them to vote for Hamlin as President and someone else (probably a westerner, since Hamlin is from Maine) as VP.

If it's too close to the day for that to happen, I'd expect the Electors to vote for Hamlin as POTUS, but they might well scatter over the Vice-Presidency. Ironically, this could help the Republicans, since if any two Republicans got over 72 votes for VP, the Senate would have to choose between those two, and all the other parties would be locked out. Otherwise, President Hamlin could find himself saddled with Joseph Lane as VP.
 
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