Not unless an agent happened to be closer to him in an ATL then he was in OTL.
Could Kennedy Avoid Assassination?
- Thread starter oshron
- Start date
Not unless an agent happened to be closer to him in an ATL then he was in OTL.
A Different Rifle
Oswald could have decided to put all of his money into the rifle he purchased instead of purchasing a rifle and a pistol. If he had purchased a 30-06 instead (available from the same add that he purchased the 6.5 mm from, see Wiki) he likely would have had to practise less, based upon the assumption that he was more familiar with the calibre, and its characteristics. Thus, when he goes to shoot, he is less practised, and uses a rifle with a significantly larger round, and different ballistic qualities. He thus, overshoots and misses. Rattled by missing, effected more by the bigger recoil, he is delayed in making the second shot, enough for a Secret Service man to shield President Kennedy. A Second shot penetrates and kills the Secret Service man, is deflected enough to make it a body shot after it passes through to Kennedy. At this point Oswald flees and is not discovered, nor identified. Kennedy does not die, but is weakened to the point that he does not stay active in the Presidency for some time. The investigation goes no where, and as the weapon used was a U.S. Calibre Military Weapon, conspiracy theories abound. Kennedy becomes even more ill with Crohn's, and between it and the lingering injuries from the rifle shot declines to run again. Oswald goes on to live in anonymity, until he decides to do something else which gets himself killed. The Rifle is never found, having been sold to some hunter at a flee market, and sits today in a gun safe in Texas.
Oswald could have decided to put all of his money into the rifle he purchased instead of purchasing a rifle and a pistol. If he had purchased a 30-06 instead (available from the same add that he purchased the 6.5 mm from, see Wiki) he likely would have had to practise less, based upon the assumption that he was more familiar with the calibre, and its characteristics. Thus, when he goes to shoot, he is less practised, and uses a rifle with a significantly larger round, and different ballistic qualities. He thus, overshoots and misses. Rattled by missing, effected more by the bigger recoil, he is delayed in making the second shot, enough for a Secret Service man to shield President Kennedy. A Second shot penetrates and kills the Secret Service man, is deflected enough to make it a body shot after it passes through to Kennedy. At this point Oswald flees and is not discovered, nor identified. Kennedy does not die, but is weakened to the point that he does not stay active in the Presidency for some time. The investigation goes no where, and as the weapon used was a U.S. Calibre Military Weapon, conspiracy theories abound. Kennedy becomes even more ill with Crohn's, and between it and the lingering injuries from the rifle shot declines to run again. Oswald goes on to live in anonymity, until he decides to do something else which gets himself killed. The Rifle is never found, having been sold to some hunter at a flee market, and sits today in a gun safe in Texas.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Is it plausible or likely in this scenario that Oswald gets interrupted between the first shot to hit the President, and the second fatal one?
Diem was a bad leader, but he was the top dropping on a giant turd pile that was the South Vietnamese political leadership, possible or otherwise. He was not winning the war, and was an embarrassment (the man said Vietnam needed Hitlers). He was not a good leader. But he was the best the South Vietnamese had. Here's the thing, though. Because he was a bad, despotic leader, it wasn't a case where you kill this great leader and the successors and bad. It's just killing a bad leader and the successors and still bad. Diem's body doesn't have an anchor chain wrapped around America's leg, pulling it down. If you withdraw, you still have the same Vietnamese leadership, warts and all, which can win or lose the war on its own terms (with American supply and aid still), and with all the problems the South Vietnamese had throughout its existence.
And no, LBJ did not follow JFK's lead on the Vietnam war, however much he may have thought he was. And I don't know how well he could have thought he was since he said to McNamara once about how Kennedy and McNamara were talking about withdrawal, and he (Johnson) thought it was a bad idea and bad for morale.
Vietnam was a no-name country somewhere on the other side of the world, one of a number of small nations where the US had an interest in fighting Communism. We only think of it as something big because it was something so big in our history in how it turned out. Ask the average American in 1962 where Vietnam was on the globe, and I doubt they'd have any idea. Something like 37 percent of the public paid any attention to the Vietnam war. Of that, most thought it'd end in ceasefire or the fall of Saigon shortly.
He was less skilled at the legislature than Johnson. Johnson was a domestic policy wonk; JFK was a foreign policy wonk. We have to take into account a few factors here. Firstly, by 1963, Kennedy had become actively and truly concerned about getting a Civil Rights Bill passed. He'd taken the step from a view that racial inequality was bad but that's just the way it was (the view of most white Americans early on) to a view that something needed to be actively done. And that's why he pushed forward what would become the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Second, the Congress was already on its way with passing that. I haven't studied this in a long time, but I remember researching that previous and finding something(s) to give me faith that the Congress would pass that regardless. Likewise, if Kennedy is in the hospital recovering for a while, LBJ could get his ass in gear and go to town pushing as hard as he could for what he could, and Civil Rights was an area of vested interest for him.
No, because the age of cynicism we enjoy now is one fostered by a Vietnam war, a corrupt Nixon, and the death of New Frontier optimism when our leaders failed us. Kennedy will be a two term President; if you think he could even possibly lose to Goldwater, I don't know what to say. He would be viewed as an above average leader. Again -and I don't care was the naysayers may say because they're the cynical overreaction to the action of thinking of Kennedy as a flawless American Jesus who would do everything- Kennedy would have done major things with Foreign policy, such as a Detente with the Soviets in the 60's rather than the 70's when it occured in the OTL, avoiding the Vietnam fiasco (Kennedy knew, unlike Johnson, foreign policy, the situation in Vietnam, and the dangers of a large nation facing a local partisan movement, and said statements to back up that he wanted to withdrawal on numerous occasions), normalized relations with Cuba (which we still don't have to this day), possibly neutralizing Cuba and Vietnam between the US and USSR (both were tired of being mired down), among perhaps a few other things. Domestically, you get Civil Rights legislation more likely than not, though Medicaid and Medicare are more up in the air. Also, overall you have a peaceful domestic life at home. Hippies and the Psychedelic and sideburns and all that collective unpuckering of America's butthole will come, but will be more Flower Power, with far less militant action. If the New Left avoids getting militant (and JFK could probably get a lot of those kids who would join the New Left to join his Centrist Liberalism; I think a fair argument could be made that a lot of the activism of the age among young people was inspired by Kennedy), then it creates a very dampened backlash among older people and conservative/Conservative people instead of the massive one that swept the GOP into power in subseqent years, and perhaps the New Left can exist in coalition with the New Dealers/Older Liberals within the Democratic party. And you get a domino effect from there. This whole modern era we live in now where you have Neoconservatives and Conservatives having ruled the Republicans for decades, Liberal as a Four Letter Word, and had in the decades after the 60's not just a more realist view replace optimism but outright fear that the American drean was dead and it was all just a lie and the republic and society were in decline, etc, etc are all the ramifications of a 1960's that went totally unhinged and tore apart at the seems. You can repair that in a few ways. You could have LBJ simply avoid Vietnam. You could have any number of other leaders elected in 1960 who would not have Americanized Vietnam. Or, you could keep Kennedy from dying.
A 1960's under Kennedy would have been something like the Clinton years in tranquility, along with many sweeping actions that I have listed previously.
Or perhaps the leader of the free world, who was an obvious potential target of any number of anti-american forces in the world, might have, I don't know... been smart enough to ride in a CLOSED vehicle? It amazes me that we haven't lost more presidents than we actually have.
Yeah, the Kennedys were stubborn about open-air campaigning. Unfortunately in those days, the final call was with the protectee, not the protector...
Back then, being seen was more important than being safe. No one thought something like that would happen.
Cook
Banned
As I mentioned earlier, at the time the threat was seen to be someone stepping forward from the edge of the road and shooting a pistol at the President and this was something his security detail was prepared for. No-one had been assassinated by a long distance marksman before.
Archibald
Banned
Why not ? we are talking about a group of 4 - 6 people. There are many ways they could disturb Oswald.
For example they could "push" him to go firing from the seventh flour - and Oswald would take more time to climb down, and he would be caught by the police closing the building, and thus perhaps that would butterfly Ruby.
Or a single guy could stumble on Oswald. Oswald would not hesitate to shoot him (like he shot Tippitt) but again, that could made him nervous enough he miss the target.
But I really like the idea of the group of men stumbling on Oswald only minutes before the assassination atempt.
"Guys, that's Lee Harvey ! Glad to see you here, pal. We'll see the motorcade together, ok ? Hmm, that's a big lunch box you have here... what's the fuck ??!!!"
(noise of carcano shots)
Archibald
Banned
More details
I can see four scenarios (god, this is fun !)
- Charles Givens reminds he forget its jacket and cigarettes some minutes later than OTL. He climbs to the sixth floor circa 12:20, rans out of time, and decides to watch Kennedy from there. He goes to the window, and stumble on Oswald.
Or Oswald dodge him and flee to another place, or he shot him discretely and hangs to its plan
- Bonnie Ray Williams ate his lunch until 12:20, then he sees no colleagues coming. "The hell with them, I'll watch that motorcade alone"
He goes to the window, and stumble on Oswald. Or Oswald dodge him and flee to another place, or he shot him discretely and hangs to its plan
- They all follow Billy Lovelady idea - and a party of colleagues invade the sixth floor circa 12:20. Again, they all stumble on Oswald. Oswald probably dodge them and flee to another place.
- Bonnie Ray Williams eat his lunch until 12:20, then see no colleague coming. As per OTL he seek his colleagues, found two of them downstairs, and together they decide to climb up again. difference with OTL: Bonnie Ray Williams suggest they return the sixth floor where he ate his lunch. again, the three men stumble on Oswald near its window.
Where I fail is Oswald reaction to all that. That man looks like a cold-blooded warrior; the kind of man that adapt to any disturbance in his plans.
Will he invent a pretext and flee to another place ?
Will he shot the poor guy that find him ?
Will a bleeding corpse near him makes him nervous enough to miss JFK ?
I can see four scenarios (god, this is fun !)
- Charles Givens reminds he forget its jacket and cigarettes some minutes later than OTL. He climbs to the sixth floor circa 12:20, rans out of time, and decides to watch Kennedy from there. He goes to the window, and stumble on Oswald.
Or Oswald dodge him and flee to another place, or he shot him discretely and hangs to its plan
- Bonnie Ray Williams ate his lunch until 12:20, then he sees no colleagues coming. "The hell with them, I'll watch that motorcade alone"
He goes to the window, and stumble on Oswald. Or Oswald dodge him and flee to another place, or he shot him discretely and hangs to its plan
- They all follow Billy Lovelady idea - and a party of colleagues invade the sixth floor circa 12:20. Again, they all stumble on Oswald. Oswald probably dodge them and flee to another place.
- Bonnie Ray Williams eat his lunch until 12:20, then see no colleague coming. As per OTL he seek his colleagues, found two of them downstairs, and together they decide to climb up again. difference with OTL: Bonnie Ray Williams suggest they return the sixth floor where he ate his lunch. again, the three men stumble on Oswald near its window.
Where I fail is Oswald reaction to all that. That man looks like a cold-blooded warrior; the kind of man that adapt to any disturbance in his plans.
Will he invent a pretext and flee to another place ?
Will he shot the poor guy that find him ?
Will a bleeding corpse near him makes him nervous enough to miss JFK ?
Just have someone stumple on Oswald right before the assassination. It shouldn't be too hard.
Honestly, I've considered doing a JFK lives TL. I figure he'd have died into his second term from a stroke due to the drugs he used at the time. We end up with a President johnson in, say, 1965 rather the 63. This does have a lot fo wonderful butterflies, for those willing to take the time to chart them.
Honestly, I've considered doing a JFK lives TL. I figure he'd have died into his second term from a stroke due to the drugs he used at the time. We end up with a President johnson in, say, 1965 rather the 63. This does have a lot fo wonderful butterflies, for those willing to take the time to chart them.
i decided to have JFK die from a fall in my ATL, but with hubert humphrey as his VP. id like to hear what you think are some of the most plausible butterflies for this
butterflies
my ATL is all-in-all ASB, but im trying to make it as plausible as possible to ultimately get a familiar-yet-strange feel to itOrville_third
Banned
JFK doesn't listen to Nixon (who was in Dallas (!) working for Pepsi (!!!) at the time) and keeps the bubble top on.
I am not sure that JFK could win in 64 without LBJ to carry the South. In fact if dropped I think LBJ MIGHT challenge JFK.