Could Japan have eventually defeated British/Chinese/Dutch W/O US DOW?

wormyguy

Banned
My question is if, for whatever reason, Japan continued with its "southern strategy," but never went to war with the US, could it have eventually reached a positive peace agreement in their wars with the British, Dutch, and Chinese? Or would they still eventually be defeated with American lend-lease to China lend-lease and British southeast Asia and island-hopping campaigns? If Germany is still defeated, would the Soviets still go ahead with August Storm?
 
I think there's no question of a Japanese victory over the Brits and Dutch in this scenario. The US were locked into isolationism with a European focus, and had they not been attacked directly I can see no US involvement in the Pacific.

It is impossible to predict the effects of this from 1942 onwards, way too many butterflies around, but a UK stripped of its Eastern Dominions of Burma, Malaya, and possibly India and Ceylon could well be forced into a peace with both Germany and Japan in mid 1942.

The only factor that effect this would be US DoW in Europe, but how likely would that be, with the US looking over its shoulder in the Pacific?
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
I think there's no question of a Japanese victory over the Brits and Dutch in this scenario. The US were locked into isolationism with a European focus, and had they not been attacked directly I can see no US involvement in the Pacific.

It is impossible to predict the effects of this from 1942 onwards, way too many butterflies around, but a UK stripped of its Eastern Dominions of Burma, Malaya, and possibly India and Ceylon could well be forced into a peace with both Germany and Japan in mid 1942.

The only factor that effect this would be US DoW in Europe, but how likely would that be, with the US looking over its shoulder in the Pacific?


The Americans imposed a embargo on Japan with very good reasons: Japanese agression in China and it's seizure of French Indochina. Allowing Japan to wage war on the European holdings would screw up the American strategic position in East Asia. The relatively peacefull seizure of French Indochina got the Americans all riled up, let alone a full war against the Europeans because they supported an American embargo!
 
The Americans imposed a embargo on Japan with very good reasons: Japanese agression in China and it's seizure of French Indochina. Allowing Japan to wage war on the European holdings would screw up the American strategic position in East Asia. The relatively peacefull seizure of French Indochina got the Americans all riled up, let alone a full war against the Europeans because they supported an American embargo!

Riled up? Sure. Riled up enough to get congress to vote for war especially when Isolationism was a powerful force? I don't think so. Roosevelt proven time and time again that he would push the envelope however he was not prepared to go too far without congress and Congress might sympathise and increase funding for US defence or Lend Lease however have US boys killed for British colonial land? I can't see it.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Riled up? Sure. Riled up enough to get congress to vote for war especially when Isolationism was a powerful force? I don't think so. Roosevelt proven time and time again that he would push the envelope however he was not prepared to go too far without congress and Congress might sympathise and increase funding for US defence or Lend Lease however have US boys killed for British colonial land? I can't see it.


Not for British colonies but against the Japanese. The USA simply couldn't allow Japan to gain the East Indies just as the Japanese simply couldn't just give up on China.
 
Britain and the Netherlands would have no alternative but to settle on Japanese terms. The Royal Navy was tied down elsewhere. Even had a couple of aircraft carriers been available the fleet airam's aircraft were no match of modern Japanese aircraft. Had the fleet assembled in the Indian Ocean in 1942 come into contact with the Imperial Japabnese Navy it would have fared badly. Japan would probably demand the the oilfields and incorporate the bulk of the East Indies into the cooprosperity sphere. Whether America would have accepted it is another question but the poster rules American involvement out China would probably carry on as it was never completely subdued by Japan and would recieve help from the Soviet Union and America.
 
People today forget how Racist America was about Japan and -The Yellow Peril -
Britian would send it's entire Sub Fleet to the Pacific
With American Planes, Destroyers, and Subs, tailing Japanese ships, and radioing their position. British Subs would have little problem sinking the Jap Ships.
As the Jap Merchant Marine dwindles, so would Japan's ability to wage the war.
 
I think there's no question of a Japanese victory over the Brits and Dutch in this scenario. The US were locked into isolationism with a European focus, and had they not been attacked directly I can see no US involvement in the Pacific.

It is impossible to predict the effects of this from 1942 onwards, way too many butterflies around, but a UK stripped of its Eastern Dominions of Burma, Malaya, and possibly India and Ceylon could well be forced into a peace with both Germany and Japan in mid 1942.

The only factor that effect this would be US DoW in Europe, but how likely would that be, with the US looking over its shoulder in the Pacific?
Gaah!

Common, stubborn, over-simplified view. The US was isolationist... in European (and, by extension, African/Middle Eastern) affairs. It was not hands-off in Latin America or Asia, where the US had major interests. The US populace didn't want to pick a fight, but it was more than lightly involved in Japan's sphere of interest: the Philipines, the highly influential China lobby, and so on.

Riled up? Sure. Riled up enough to get congress to vote for war especially when Isolationism was a powerful force? I don't think so. Roosevelt proven time and time again that he would push the envelope however he was not prepared to go too far without congress and Congress might sympathise and increase funding for US defence or Lend Lease however have US boys killed for British colonial land? I can't see it.
Roosevelt pushed hard for a war with Germany, not Japan. The war with Japan resulted from a structural geo-political viewpoint from the Japanese side: namely, the fear the US might intervene, and the knowledge that the US could effectively cut Japan off from the Empire at any time, giving the US undo influence over Japan. The more wealth and territory the Japanese Empire has south of the Philippines, the more influence and potential threat the US represents simply by staying still. War becomes more, not less, likely.

People today forget how Racist America was about Japan and -The Yellow Peril -
Britian would send it's entire Sub Fleet to the Pacific
With American Planes, Destroyers, and Subs, tailing Japanese ships, and radioing their position. British Subs would have little problem sinking the Jap Ships.
As the Jap Merchant Marine dwindles, so would Japan's ability to wage the war.
Actually, the US was notably pro-Chinese during this period: racism tinged, yes, but the China lobby was the pro-Israel lobby of the day in terms of size, effectiveness, and public support.
 
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