Could the Japanese Empire have agreed something with the Chinese state and how much difference might this have made to its capacity in the rest of the Pacific theatre?
No they couldn't. Japanese honor, or more specifically; the honor of the Japanese officers who launchd the war was at stake. They wouldn't have accepted anything.Could the Japanese Empire have agreed something with the Chinese state and how much difference might this have made to its capacity in the rest of the Pacific theatre?
Could the Japanese Empire have agreed something with the Chinese state and how much difference might this have made to its capacity in the rest of the Pacific theatre?
First of all, it would depend on the nature of the deal. Chiang was playing for time and still had real problems with the warlords on his back. There are three real problems:
1. That Japan has done terrible things to the Chinese People, the Nanjing Massacre is essentially unforgivable. That said, it is not impossible to rule that this need not have happened.
2. Japan has decided to ignore Chiang's entreaties for any kind of peace deal, suggesting that the war is all or nothing. This attitude also needs to be reversed.
3. The IJA wants a lot more than Chiang will be willing to yield. Chiang will obviously never yield Nanjing as a concession to Japan, or any large swaths of territory in that region.
With those points in mind, it is very possible to see the Marco Polo Bridge Incident, culminating with a successful attack and capture of Nanjing leading instead to Chiang being profoundly humiliated, and being forced to recognize Inner Mongolia (Menguko) and possibly the loss of Beijing (which was actually on the front lines of Japanese expansion).
The problem here, is that the IJA needs to get reined in, or yet another war with China will be provoked. Ultimately, a peace deal that leaves Japan in Beijing and Inner Mongolia is going to exist only so that Chiang can crush the Communists once and for all. Once that's done, maybe Chiang is in a strong enough position to resist any further territorial grabs. Alternatively, Chiang might well fall for cutting this last deal with Japan, and more hawkish leaders come to the fore--someone like Li Zongren takes over.
Couldn't Chang be convinced to "buy some time" and give the Japanese what they want until they enter into a war with the anglo-saxons.
Japan wants to take ALL of China.
I doubt that,they had massive problems with guerillas in the areas they controlled,trying to hold down all of China would be disastorous and I'm sure any Kwantung officer with brain can see that. They would probably see a large containable chunk as a victory.
And Japan went to war with the Anglo-Saxons due to fuel,surely the oil embargo will continue even though China has made peace.
The war with China was the critical element that caused tensions with the west in the First Place. If China peaces out pre-1940, there's no Oil Embargo to start with! Even if Japan has pushed into Indochina, if at this late point China cut a deal, Japan would be in a position to make a concession to reconnect its oil--it could pull out of Indochina.
There is also the point that Japan's oil needs were tied to its combat operations. If Combat operations are pared down, there is much less need for Oil. Besides, you're treating Japan's war against the West as its preferred solution to the problem--it was more a matter of a self-inflicted trap.
There will be no war with the West if there is Peace in China. This, combined with the point that China would be likely to peace out around 1938, when Japan grabs Nanjing, means that Japan dodges war.
Japan MIGHT hit the Soviet Union, but it would only do so if things like the Nomohan Incident went very favorably, which they would probably not.
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The embargo is still going to hit them very hard so surely it will lead to the same downward spiral.