Could Japan Have Beaten the Europeans in 1941?

Inspired by the thread about the purely American/Japanese War. Let's say, as that poster did, that Germany is beaten back by a Franco-British in the Ardennes. They're eventually pushed back into Germany, and a coup overthrows Hitler and settles for peace. Germany is still a threat, but no longer an immediate one.

In any case, that doesn't matter, it's just to get Germany out of the question. Japan is still expansionist, dangerous, and under an embargo by the United States. Rather than attacking Pearl Harbor, however, Japan launches an invasion of French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies. Is that possible? Could they avoid the Philippines successfully, and keep the US from getting involved? Do the British get involved right away, or do they wait until Burma is threatened?

And if the Japanese do launch a massive attack on European colonies in Asia, could the Europeans beat them?

Please let me know if my scenario is entirely ASB. It's more of a hypothetical question than a legitimate AH scenario.

Cheers,
Ganesha
 

mowque

Banned
The USA would get involved, it is too much in their interests not to.

Granted, it would be a much different involvement.
 

Thande

Donor
If this was at the same time as a war against Germany, Japan would have a good chance of victory IMO. However under the scenario you outline, and assuming Germany is considered quiescent enough not to intimidate the British, French and Dutch governments into keeping a lot of stuff at home, then I think Japan's defeat is fairly inevitable, though it may take quite a long time and not be so total a defeat as OTL's WW2.

Granted, as Mowque says it's very hard to see the USA not getting involved at some point.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
If this was at the same time as a war against Germany, Japan would have a good chance of victory IMO. However under the scenario you outline, and assuming Germany is considered quiescent enough not to intimidate the British, French and Dutch governments into keeping a lot of stuff at home, then I think Japan's defeat is fairly inevitable, though it may take quite a long time and not be so total a defeat as OTL's WW2.

Granted, as Mowque says it's very hard to see the USA not getting involved at some point.

Agreed.

I would like to add that if the USA is clearly neutral but the rest is like OTL, the UK is likely to find a peace deal with Japan. The UK would have even fewer forces in the region than OTL, and would probably accept a Japanese "purchase" of key colonies. Without a need to deal with USA forces, the battles in the East Indies will be even more one sided.
 
The USA would get involved, it is too much in their interests not to.

Granted, it would be a much different involvement.

How would it be different? What would be the US' first move? I can't see an isolationist US launching an offensive war from Hawaii against Japan's Pacific possessions.

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
Britain and France crush Japan. Given the different scenario, there is no fight to the death, and invasion and occupation of Japan is likely not the goal. But the Allies can clearly divert enough forces to hold their colonies and push Japan back - though without a few bloody noses first especially in naval battles - while still keeping enough land forces in case Germany gets antsy.

The Allied economies are simply too large for Japan to overcome.

The Japanese navy is very good, but is behind technologically from the Allies in many areas. They have better torpedoes and aircraft, but that will change quickly. They are completely behind in radar and fire control.

The Japanese army is basically a WWI style infantry force with inferior armor. It can inflict large casualties by opposing amphibious landings, but that's all. I give the Allies maybe making one or two attempts before deciding not to do it and simply support Nationalist China.

The initial Japanese success in WW2 against Britain is entirely due to strategic surprise and Britain stripping their Eastern colonies of men and equipment, and not able to quickly send reinforcements. None of that applies in this scenario.

By the end of 1941, Japan and Allies have probably lost around the same amount of ships in several fierce naval battles, but superior Allied economies will be out producing Japan. Japanese troops may be in several colonies, but under heavy fire as more Allied reinforcements land.

By end of 1942, Japan has probably been pushed out of European colonies. Nationalist China has gotten a lot of support from the Allies, and the two worked together to open up the port of Canton. Japan is probably out of southern China. Allies may have taken Taiwan,

By end of 1943, operations are limited to the central China coast. Allied airpower, advisors, perhaps a small expeditionary force, and aide have enabled China to retake Wuhan and perhaps Nanking/Shanghai as well. After some failed amphibious landings, or simply too high casualties, Allies decide to foreswear additional landings and simply work with China.

By end of 1944, China pushes into the north China plain. Allied submarine operations prove very successful in cutting off Japan. Despite some attriting battles, superior Allied economies have replaced their losses, leaving Japan at a huge disadvantage.

Eventually a negotiated peace allows Japan to keep most of its current colonies, including Korea. Chiang Kai-Shek is master of most of China and will soon turn on the Chinese communists. Status of Manchukuo is unclear. But the eventual defeat of Japan is all but assured if it refuses to make peace.
 

Thande

Donor
the UK is likely to find a peace deal with Japan. The UK would have even fewer forces in the region than OTL, and would probably accept a Japanese "purchase" of key colonies. Without a need to deal with USA forces, the battles in the East Indies will be even more one sided.

I don't think so. Singapore in OTL was considered the biggest and most embarrassing defeat in British military history. Under these circumstances, with no German distraction, Britain would throw anything and everything into smacking Japan down. Anything else would just send the wrong message and encourage anti-colonial groups and their sponsors into thinking the Empire was on its deathbed. Same with France what with the collaborators in Indochina and so forth.

Again, it might take a good few years, but the fact that Japan is militarily incapable of conquering Australia means it has no prospect of throwing Britain and her allies out of the Far East altogether, so it just requires enough time and the political will (which would be a given due to outrage over Japanese war crimes) for Britain and France to learn the lessons of the early defeats, build more carriers, reform tactics etc., build alliances with Kuomintang forces in China (or maybe the USSR even if necessary) and eventually crush Japan. As I said above, the point is that it's hard to imagine this war going on (potentially into 1947 or 1948) without America becoming involved at some point.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I don't think so. Singapore in OTL was considered the biggest and most embarrassing defeat in British military history. Under these circumstances, with no German distraction, Britain would throw anything and everything into smacking Japan down. Anything else would just send the wrong message and encourage anti-colonial groups and their sponsors into thinking the Empire was on its deathbed. Same with France what with the collaborators in Indochina and so forth.

Again, it might take a good few years, but the fact that Japan is militarily incapable of conquering Australia means it has no prospect of throwing Britain and her allies out of the Far East altogether, so it just requires enough time and the political will (which would be a given due to outrage over Japanese war crimes) for Britain and France to learn the lessons of the early defeats, build more carriers, reform tactics etc., build alliances with Kuomintang forces in China (or maybe the USSR even if necessary) and eventually crush Japan. As I said above, the point is that it's hard to imagine this war going on (potentially into 1947 or 1948) without America becoming involved at some point.

I doubt the will is there, and I doubt Japan would demand Singapore. Indochina and defacto control over part of the oilfields in Indonesia. The UK does not need to give up anything. And while they were not used, there are lots of face saving solutions such Japan having controlling interests in the oil companies with some defensive pact where Japan guarantees the Dutch keep the colony.

And I accepted the thread writer POD of no USA entry.

And I was assuming France still falls to Germany, otherwise, I don't think Japan ever gets to the oil embargo point, and Japan Today includes Taiwan, Korea, likely China north of the Great wall, and maybe some other parts of china.
 
Inspired by the thread about the purely American/Japanese War. Let's say, as that poster did, that Germany is beaten back by a Franco-British in the Ardennes. They're eventually pushed back into Germany, and a coup overthrows Hitler and settles for peace. Germany is still a threat, but no longer an immediate one.

In any case, that doesn't matter, it's just to get Germany out of the question. Japan is still expansionist, dangerous, and under an embargo by the United States. Rather than attacking Pearl Harbor, however, Japan launches an invasion of French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies. Is that possible? Could they avoid the Philippines successfully, and keep the US from getting involved? Do the British get involved right away, or do they wait until Burma is threatened?

And if the Japanese do launch a massive attack on European colonies in Asia, could the Europeans beat them?

Please let me know if my scenario is entirely ASB. It's more of a hypothetical question than a legitimate AH scenario.

Cheers,
Ganesha

The Japanese cannot invade the European colonies without capturing the Philippines in the process. Leaving the Philippines in US hands will permanently endanger the Japanese invasion forces and risk having them cut off once/if the US joins the war on the Allied side.

So the Japanese will also invade the Philippines, because they must. This also means that they'll attack Pearl Harbour, Guam and Wake Island, as IOTL. Which means that like OTL, Japan will be buttfucked by the US six ways to Sunday, with the British, the French and the Chinese this time playing a more active role.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The Japanese cannot invade the European colonies without capturing the Philippines in the process. Leaving the Philippines in US hands will permanently endanger the Japanese invasion forces and risk having them cut off once/if the US joins the war on the Allied side.

So the Japanese will also invade the Philippines, because they must. This also means that they'll attack Pearl Harbour, Guam and Wake Island, as IOTL. Which means that like OTL, Japan will be buttfucked by the US six ways to Sunday, with the British, the French and the Chinese this time playing a more active role.

Not if the USA in neutral, like the thread writer asked for.
 

Thande

Donor
He also asked to let him know if the scenario was entirely ASB. I'd say it's not entirely so, but a Pacific War without US involvement is highly unlikely.

Mind you. We all say that, based on the reasonable assumption that it would be stupid for a country in the USA's position not to act if its colony became surrounded by Japanese invaders with an anti-western ideology whose propaganda blasted the USA alongside the European colonial powers. But US politics with regard to intervention in this era were not reasonable. Even something like the Panay Incident had already been smoothed over. If the Japanese just don't attack American territory and manage to avoid any accidental incidents, how exactly is FDR going to persuade an unenthusiastic Congress to declare war?
 
If the Japanese just don't attack American territory and manage to avoid any accidental incidents, how exactly is FDR going to persuade an unenthusiastic Congress to declare war?

Extend a neutral zone around the Philippines, until the Japanese act like the Japanese.

I tried to game this out for Stresemannverse, but the problem is then you have an unoccupied SUSR in Japan's rear. That'll end real well, and Japan was far more worried about Russia than they were about the UK by 1939.
 
I still think Japan would win in a situation like this....because Japanese propaganda might work better without the involvement of the Nazis on their side, and the fact that the majority of the Allied troops in this case would be colonial.....transporting a large amount of soldiers directly from the "motherland" would take a long time, perhaps time enough for Japan to establish a firm foothold in the Dutch East Indies, and maybe Indochina. Any war with the UK will end in a peace settlement, and Japan won't be getting Singapore for sure, but I think Indochina and the East Indies is negotiable.

I am really surprised how loyal Indian troops were considering their situation OTL....though one could say that they would be jumping from the frying pan into the fire if they did turn over.
 

Thande

Donor
Extend a neutral zone around the Philippines, until the Japanese act like the Japanese.
Yeah, that seems like the most likely possibility. My point is that if the Japanese can be restrained from being the Japanese (which is of course not realistic) then there doesn't seem to be any way that FDR could pre-emptively declare war given the political landscape of the time.

I tried to game this out for Stresemannverse, but the problem is then you have an unoccupied SUSR in Japan's rear. That'll end real well, and Japan was far more worried about Russia than they were about the UK by 1939.
Well that's natural given the IJN was technologically and numerically comparable to the RN in 1939, which certainly cannot be said for the Japanese and Red Armies.
 
I still think Japan would win in a situation like this....because Japanese propaganda might work better without the involvement of the Nazis on their side, and the fact that the majority of the Allied troops in this case would be colonial.....transporting a large amount of soldiers directly from the "motherland" would take a long time, perhaps time enough for Japan to establish a firm foothold in the Dutch East Indies, and maybe Indochina. Any war with the UK will end in a peace settlement, and Japan won't be getting Singapore for sure, but I think Indochina and the East Indies is negotiable.

I am really surprised how loyal Indian troops were considering their situation OTL....though one could say that they would be jumping from the frying pan into the fire if they did turn over.

The IJA did not need to be allied with the Nazis in order to be a horde of psychopathic murderers and rapists. See: Sino-Japanese War 1937 onwards. What goodwill they might have among the local populace will be quickly pissed away after the first atrocities.

Transporting troops to SE Asia will be an issue. However, with Nazi Germany defeated/contained, the Allies can now concentrate a majority of their forces into the theater, instead of the ramshackle, badly equipped and poorly led force of OTL 1941-42.

And then there's of course the USSR lurking behind the border, just itching for a chance to avenge 1905 and take Manchuria and Korea from the Japanese.

Whether the war will end in a negotiated peace or an outright defeat is up in the air, depending on the level of American involvement, but it's a war that Japan cannot win.
 
Well that's natural given the IJN was technologically and numerically comparable to the RN in 1939, which certainly cannot be said for the Japanese and Red Armies.

The problem is that this leaves Japan with... what?

They can keep at it in China, and I guess try to mobilize to take Chungking. Which they could probably do, I guess? But they didn't try to take it in OTL....

Taking it doesn't really help them, because then there's no one to make peace with, their own KMT government is a puppet which nobody takes seriously, and the Communists just do better and better. Meanwhile as in OTL the Soviets control Xian.

Japan was stuck, as one contemporary put it, like an octopus eating its own tentacles. Everything it did would just be worse.
 
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