Could Japan had succeeded in attaining Soviet mediation if they gave enough concessions?

In the final months of the war the Japanse hoped, and indeed it was their only hope, that the Soviets would help them to mediate peace.

Now according to wiki Stalin had very specific goals in Japan which made him reject said offers, or rather, stall the negotiations to allow him build up for the attack and then reject it:

Security concerns dominated Soviet decisions concerning the Far East.[52] Chief among these was gaining unrestricted access to the Pacific Ocean. The year-round ice-free areas of the Soviet Pacific coastline—Vladivostok in particular—could be blockaded by air and sea from Sakhalin island and the Kurile Islands. Acquiring these territories, thus guaranteeing free access to the Soya Strait, was their primary objective.[53][54] Secondary objectives were leases for the Chinese Eastern Railway, Southern Manchuria Railway, Dairen, and Port Arthur.[55]

In the end Japan would had been no worse accepting this since in the end it still surrendered and had to give up everything anyway.

So let's suppose they see the writing in the wall and a prince or diplomat from Japan tells the Soviets they are willing to listen to any terms they might have to offer in exchange for their mediation to achieve at least a conditional surrender with the US, they manage to find out the Soviet goals in declaring war with Japan and offer Stalin everything he wants without having to fight for it at all in exchange for renewing the neutrality pact and mediation to reach a settlement with the US.

Could Stalin had agreed to this?
 
Yes, but I don't think it would have made any difference to the US.

Other than lowering their opinion of "Uncle Joe."

From another thread:

The bomb was not what changed Japan's calculations though.

From this piece in Foreign Policy: http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/05/30/the-bomb-didnt-beat-japan-stalin-did/
  • Would the US have ended up implementing Operation Downfall? Or alternatively, would we have seen a Pacific "Operation Vegetarian" take place to spare US casualties? What would this have done to Japan? How would the other Pacific Rim nations be affected?
  • Would the US' increased operations in Japan have affected their post-VE presence in Europe? Would this have given Stalin a freer hand in Europe? How would this affect the formation of the Iron Curtain and the early Cold War?
  • How would a longer, bloodier Pacific Theatre and an earlier collapse of relations with Soviet Russia have affected the US politically and culturally?
 
From another thread:


  • Would the US have ended up implementing Operation Downfall? Or alternatively, would we have seen a Pacific "Operation Vegetarian" take place to spare US casualties? What would this have done to Japan? How would the other Pacific Rim nations be affected?
  • Would the US' increased operations in Japan have affected their post-VE presence in Europe? Would this have given Stalin a freer hand in Europe? How would this affect the formation of the Iron Curtain and the early Cold War?
  • How would a longer, bloodier Pacific Theatre and an earlier collapse of relations with Soviet Russia have affected the US politically and culturally?

The alternative to Downfall (and from what I have read in some posts, what would had likely been implemented rather than Downfall in the end) was Operation Starvation, basically blockade Japan until they surrender.

However in this hypothetical scenario they have a Soviet quasi-alliance so the USSR could keep them supplied blocking Starvation, meaning Downfall would had been the only way. With Downfall + Soviet mediation I think there is a slight chance the US might agree on a conditional surrender to Japan.

Alternative under those conditions, I think the US might as well say "Fuck it" and atom bomb Japan until they surrender unconditionally.
 
Last edited:

Philip

Donor
However in this hypothetical scenario they have a Soviet quasi-alliance so the USSR could keep them supplied blocking Starvation

Wasn't there a famine in the Soviet Union in '46-'47? I'm not sure how much food they can provide to Japan. They probably have to reduce what they are sending to Poland and Germany to help Japan. That could make the building of the Eastern Bloc a bit more bloody.
 

nbcman

Donor
The alternative to Downfall (and from what I have read in some posts, what would had likely been implemented rather than Downfall in the end) was Operation Starvation, basically blockade Japan until they surrender.

However in this hypothetical scenario they have a Soviet quasi-alliance so the USSR could keep them supplied blocking Starvation, meaning Downfall would had been the only way. With Downfall + Soviet mediation I think there is a slight chance the US might agree on a conditional surrender to Japan.

Alternative under those conditions, I think the US might as well say "Fuck it" and atom bomb Japan until they surrender unconditionally.

Even if the Soviets could send supplies to their Far East provinces, how would those supplies cross the water to the Japanese? The Allies wouldn't let the supplies pass. The Allies had naval and air superiority if not supremacy around Japan by mid 1945. Even if the Soviets went to war, their Pacific fleet was no match for the Allied forces in the Pacific. The IJ desire for the Soviets to help them was a delusion. Uncle Joe wasn't going to risk his neck over a bombed out husk that Japan was turning into.
 
Could Stalin had agreed to this?

No, because he knew that the US would never agree to it, and that one way or another it would defeat Japan with or without Soviet aid. Trying to act as a mediator would just anger the US at a time when Stalin was not ready for a complete break. Much better to stall the Japanese, get their hopes up so they don't prematurely (i.e., before the USSR is ready to fight) surrender to the US, and then get into the war in time to get part of the credit (as well as territory, of course...).
 
@subway dreaming I should have been more clear. When I said it would make no difference to the US, I meant that the US would still insist on unconditional surrender. Stalin's mediation would not cause the US to negotiate.
 
@subway dreaming I should have been more clear. When I said it would make no difference to the US, I meant that the US would still insist on unconditional surrender. Stalin's mediation would not cause the US to negotiate.

It's not as though Stalin wouldn't have realized this, which is one reason why it wouldn't make any sense for him to offer to mediate. Another of course was that most of the concessions the Japanese might be willing to make to Stalin he could and did easily get by himself by entering the war (and indeed could get them by military force even if FDR had not already promised them to Stalin return for Stalin's promise at Yalta to enter the war within three months of the end of the war in Europe).
 
. . . the US would never agree to it . . .
I agree that it would be hard for the U.S. to agree to any conditional surrender because of Pearl Harbor and because of the Bataan Death March,

but maybe if the Emperor would relocate to a small island in another country a la Napoleon?
 
Another of course was that most of the concessions the Japanese might be willing to make to Stalin he could and did easily get by himself by entering the war (and indeed could get them by military force even if FDR had not already promised them to Stalin return for Stalin's promise at Yalta to enter the war within three months of the end of the war in Europe).

But here he could get it even more easily without fighting at all. OTL he didnt got as much as he wanted, he split up Korea for example.

Here he could potentially get everything minus Hokkaido.

Alternatively, he could accept, take everything and then betray the Japs and still go to war or refuse to mediate. Sure, it would be a dick move, but its Stalin.
 
so the USSR could keep them supplied blocking Starvation,

There was a famine in the USSR over '46-47.

The 1946 harvest was only 39.6 million tons of grain vs 47.3 million in 1945 and 95.5 million in 1940.

I'm sure the Ukrainians will enjoy a 2nd Holodomor, taking grain to feed the Japanese
 
Even the peace faction among Japans leaders were unwilling to give up the pre 1937 empire. When they made the diplomatic inquiry to the USSR to serve as mediator retaining Manchuria, Korea, & Formosa were core non negotiable items. Japan without the empire would be a castrated entity. They would be wholly dependent of purchasing raw materials from foreign nations, the situation Japan was faced with in the late 19th Century. The whole point to acquiring the empire was to prevent Japan from becoming a client state or colony of the foreign devils. In that context it makes zero sense to bargain away the deeply invested Manchurian/Korean regions. & then become the impoverished client state they are trying to avoid.
 
Even the peace faction among Japans leaders were unwilling to give up the pre 1937 empire. When they made the diplomatic inquiry to the USSR to serve as mediator retaining Manchuria, Korea, & Formosa were core non negotiable items. Japan without the empire would be a castrated entity. They would be wholly dependent of purchasing raw materials from foreign nations, the situation Japan was faced with in the late 19th Century. The whole point to acquiring the empire was to prevent Japan from becoming a client state or colony of the foreign devils. In that context it makes zero sense to bargain away the deeply invested Manchurian/Korean regions. & then become the impoverished client state they are trying to avoid.

But in the end they still lost all that anyway.
 

Wallet

Banned
Nope. Stalin planned on attacking Japan when Germany was defeated. Partly for revenge for the Russian-Japanese War and Japanese intervention in the Russian Civil War, but also war spoils.

Stain wanted Skahalin, Korea, and Manchuria. He also wanted to help the Chinese communists. Nor was he ready to piss off the US
 
There was never any chance that the Soviets would agree to the Japanese request for mediation. The Soviet failure to reject it out of hand was merely a deception maneuver. As Tsuyoshi Hasegawa has written:

"The Soviet Union played a central role in the drama of the ending the Pacific War . Stalin was determined to enter the war against Japan in order to obtain geopolitical gains promised at Yalta . He had to balance Japan and the United States for this purpose. While he was transporting troops and equipment to the Far East with frantic speed in preparations for the war against Japan, he deceived the Japanese government into believing that the Neutrality Pact would last until it expired in April 1946. He fully exploited Japan's clumsy diplomatic faux pas of sending Hirota to Malik to keep the Soviet Union out of the war. He let Hirota pursue Malik, but instructed Malik not to refuse to meet him, in order to "lull the Japanese to sleep," while he was frantically putting the last touch on the preparations for the war against Japan. In fact, the Politburo and the State Defense Committee made the final decision to wage war against Japan on June 26 and 27. It was only after this decision that the Japanese government decided to request Moscow's mediation by sending Prince Konoe as the Emperor's special envoy . This move merely served Stalin's purpose. It was exploited to prolong the war, while it provided Stalin with a bargaining chip in his dealing with Truman..." https://books.google.com/books?id=XjW49VTRhxQC&pg=PA225

(Hasegawa has been criticized for putting too much emphasis on the Soviet entry into the war and not enough on the a-bomb as the motive for the Japanese surrender; but whatever one's views on that, I don't think the paragraph I have quoted can reasonably be disputed.)
 

Perkeo

Banned
The simple question is: What can Stalin hope to accomplish by Sovjet mediation that he didn't get by joining the Allies? IOTL
He got the territories he wanted.
He had a food in the door in China.
And as an icing on the cake, he could brandmark the US as the bad guys who used the A-bomb first.
What else could/would Japan give?
 
Top