Could Japan defeat allies without China war

From a strictly military standpoint, Japan is a island nation. She lives and dies by the sea. So long as the USN smashes her navy, the island hopping and unrestricted submarine warfare campaign can isolate her. So long as she is isolated, any gains from a victory in China are irrelevant.
 
The US is not going to sit on its hands whilst the Nazis take over Europe and the Japanese take control of the Pacific. They were isolationist, not stupid. They will eventually declare war on the Axis and go to total war, except not with the same resolve as they had after Pearl. Japan knew this and thats why they attacked the US preemptive.

I tend to agree with you but the US is NOT a dictatorship where the politicians get to make all decisions. IF there's no Pearl Harbor and the Japanese can avoid any further stepping on their dicks (IE the rape of Nanking) where the world turns against them for their behavior, I think it could be exceedingly difficult for the US to go to war with them. The American public did not see Japan gobbling up the Dutch East Indies, Borneo, Malay or the any of the French colonies as something that would directly harm them. They looked at that situation as the European Colonialism and were in no mood to waste American boys propping up the old 'Status Quo' for them.

I think had Roosevelt maneuvered the US into a war without the PH event there would have been hell to pay. He had promised the American people he was 'not going to send American boys oversees to fight other peoples wars'. If he in fact did that in 41 right after the election I think there would have been impeachment hearings. The US government would have been in chaos.

I have contended for many years that had Japan not attacked the US and went solely against the Allies possessions these things may have happened;
  1. By finishing the war with China Japan would have had 30 to 35 divisions to use.
  2. Those divisions could have been used to quickly overrun Burma and invade into India
  3. Invading into India would most likely have been the straw that allowed Rommel to capture Suez and potentially link up with the Japanese in India.
  4. At that point the Axis would have had more then enough oil to fuel their armies
  5. By kicking the British out of the Med that would have made Italy a stronger partner as they no longer had to defend a gazillion miles of coastline
This possibly could have all happened during the year of 41. By 42 how are you going to explain to the American people that we have to go to war to re-install the British, French and Dutch over the Germans, Italians and Japanese when it comes to managing overseas colonies. I don't think they buy it.

People weren't as sophisticated back then and had very little sense of globalism. They viewed things in much simpler terms then we do today. The US was safe because we had oceans separating us from all the bad shit happening elsewhere that wasn't our business.
 
I would say that Japan winning chinese war/make some sort of peace could have a huge consequences not just for western allies but also for USSR (at least til Japan goes to war with UK/USA)

Btw how could Japanese end the war in China (incident, hehe)? I don´t mean just defeat armies of Kuomintang and/or warlords, I mean "pacification" of this huuuuge country. Total occupation or annexation? Impossible... Some friendly government? Hm, even puppet China, without its peripheries, would be too huge compared to Japan and probably sooner or later "overgrow" its "master"/senior "ally"...
Split it? How? Would that be even possible? I don´t think that this work in Manchukuo, there was also some plan involving Hui, which failled (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chine..._Sino-Japanese_War#Muslim_Jihad_against_Japan)
 
I have contended for many years that had Japan not attacked the US and went solely against the Allies possessions these things may have happened;
  1. By finishing the war with China Japan would have had 30 to 35 divisions to use.
  2. Those divisions could have been used to quickly overrun Burma and invade into India
  3. Invading into India would most likely have been the straw that allowed Rommel to capture Suez and potentially link up with the Japanese in India.
  4. At that point the Axis would have had more then enough oil to fuel their armies
  5. By kicking the British out of the Med that would have made Italy a stronger partner as they no longer had to defend a gazillion miles of coastline

I have serious doubts. On 2, I wonder if Japan could have managed the logistical issues well enough to fully apply the freed up divisions to the invasion of India, and on 3 I think Rommel was more than a straw away from Suez. 4 also assumes that Axis logistics could quickly exploit oil resources and transport them to where they were needed; again this is far from trivial. Though making the Japanese leadership more sensible could perhaps have consequences apart from leading them not to attack the U.S., and that might help with 2 and 4.
 
I have serious doubts. On 2, I wonder if Japan could have managed the logistical issues well enough to fully apply the freed up divisions to the invasion of India, and on 3 I think Rommel was more than a straw away from Suez. 4 also assumes that Axis logistics could quickly exploit oil resources and transport them to where they were needed; again this is far from trivial. Though making the Japanese leadership more sensible could perhaps have consequences apart from leading them not to attack the U.S., and that might help with 2 and 4.

I agree as the Logistics side of the war was Japan's biggest problem/obstacle. However if the war with China was over it should be better.

On the India side I think with the threat of Indian demanding their independence and the possibility of Japan being able to land troops anywhere on the eastern shore of India the number of troops that the UK will need to reassign to that theater will cause the weakness in North Africa that will allow Rommel to succeed.

You have a fair point for the logistics side for all of the Axis. But if these areas are protected from the Allies they will continue to grow and get stronger as time goes by.

The interesting point is what happens to the USSR during this time frame. If Japan, Italy and Germany have unlimited oil resources and can share technology that most likely spells doom for the USSR by 1943.
 
Serious doubts on 1-5. They might have 30-35 divisions to use but they also have to garrison China. How many will that tie up. It would take time to assemble and supply those divisions for action against India. During that time the British would be getting the Indian Army ready. The Japanese would also have to supply all those divisions attacking into India. The Allies had crap tons of trouble moving supplies the other way and they had equipment and supplies to spare. The British will be doing all they can to interdict those lines.

On 3 first El Alamein wasn’t until July 42. By then the US will be in the war. Don’t see how the Japanese invading India will cause a collapse at El Alamein. Even if it does, and the British somehow just let the Germans take all the oil fields in the Middle East it will still take time for them to be any use. The British will destroy everything. The Germans will have to put the fires out first. After GW1 it took 10 months using modern equipment with teams from all over the world just to put all the fires out. The Germans will have to make new drilling and pumping equipment. That takes time. Then they have to drill the wells and actually start production. After all of that they have to transport the oil to refineries. Just don’t see 4 ever happening.

Still owning Gibraltar and Malta and having the Germans now involved in Russia, just don’t see 5 happening. The Axis only get weaker over the course of the war.

IMHO Japan would never have had chance against the US in a total declared war. OTL the US destroyed virtually every major city in their country. People forget that the US only nuked 2 cities, the rest they burned to the ground. OTL wasn’t even close.
 
Two. Oceans. Navy. Act.

All a stronger IJN does is just ensue that all the ships canceled at the end of the war are built to completion.
 
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