Could Japan defeat allies without China war

Could Japan defeat allies if it was not busy with a war in China either it defeated China by 1941 or it reach some kind of peace with China by 1941?
 
Could Japan defeat allies if it was not busy with a war in China either it defeated China by 1941 or it reach some kind of peace with China by 1941?

It would have no reason to fight them if there was no China war, either due to no pressing need for resources, or being entirely too busy trying to keep China down.

As for its CAPABILITY to defeat the US.... No. It might be able to make the advance forwards harder, but the absolute best it could hope for was always that America would get bored of slaughtering island garrisons and the IJN and go away.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Without the China war then the Japanese are not targeted by US and they stop selling it oil and scrap metal. So not sure it even in WW2.
 
All you guys didn't even read the OP did you? Its a scenario where they either win or at least make peace with China, not never made war on China at all. The embrargo still goes and the Japanese still have ambitions in the pacific.
 
Even with a complete annexation of a supportive China before 1941 Japan cannot beat the USA. China isn't that useful, there's not that much surplus to devote to war and industrialisation will take too long.

Britain and the Dutch is more possible.
 
If Japan finishes China and goes after the Allies (UK, France and Dutch) possessions then Yes. They would be able to defeat these countries due to the war in Europe.

The key is the US. If Japan basically ignores the US (No Pearl Harbor, nothing that angers the US people) it will do two things;
  • Force the US to declare war or be the belligerent in the pacific conflict. This will be difficult for the US govt. to sell to the people. This will look like exactly what it is..US soldiers dying to prop up European colonialism. I don't think Roosevelt survives the next election if that happens. If the US govt. turns over it becomes a toss up as to how that unfolds.
  • Allow Japan to focus on the collection and utilization of all new territories. By not having the China mess they will be able to devote the proper resources to build up and use the new territories.
Looking at the situation in hindsight it always amazed me that Japan seemed to have no 'plan' to deal with the territories after the conquered them. Maybe in this situation they would be able to 'improve' that aspect of their strategy.
 
If Japan finishes China and goes after the Allies (UK, France and Dutch) possessions then Yes. They would be able to defeat these countries due to the war in Europe.

The key is the US. If Japan basically ignores the US (No Pearl Harbor, nothing that angers the US people) it will do two things;
  • Force the US to declare war or be the belligerent in the pacific conflict. This will be difficult for the US govt. to sell to the people. This will look like exactly what it is..US soldiers dying to prop up European colonialism. I don't think Roosevelt survives the next election if that happens. If the US govt. turns over it becomes a toss up as to how that unfolds.
  • Allow Japan to focus on the collection and utilization of all new territories. By not having the China mess they will be able to devote the proper resources to build up and use the new territories.
Looking at the situation in hindsight it always amazed me that Japan seemed to have no 'plan' to deal with the territories after the conquered them. Maybe in this situation they would be able to 'improve' that aspect of their strategy.

The US is not going to sit on its hands whilst the Nazis take over Europe and the Japanese take control of the Pacific. They were isolationist, not stupid. They will eventually declare war on the Axis and go to total war, except not with the same resolve as they had after Pearl. Japan knew this and thats why they attacked the US preemptive.
 
All you guys didn't even read the OP did you? Its a scenario where they either win or at least make peace with China, not never made war on China at all. The embrargo still goes and the Japanese still have ambitions in the pacific.

Why does the embargo still go? The freezing of assets and the oil embargo didn't take place until the summer of 1941. They were a response to the Japanese war with China and to things Japan had done elsewhere (French Indochina) to strengthen its hand in the war with China.
 
Why does the embargo still go? The freezing of assets and the oil embargo didn't take place until the summer of 1941. They were a response to the Japanese war with China and to things Japan had done elsewhere (French Indochina) to strengthen its hand in the war with China.

Well they still occupy Indochina, still would occupy south Indochina in Summer 1941(because why not?) so the Allies are still going to punish them for that with embargos. I'd say them occupying China and actually annexing parts of China(resulting in mass ethnic cleansings) would prompt the allies to perhaps do even more than just that.

Now, even though their war with China is over, it would still cost them massive resources to keep it occupied and reinforce it/rebuild it. As well as maintain their gigantic fleet. An occupied China is a weakness for Japan and they still need to rush to get the resources they want and need to fight the Allies in the Pacific.
 
If Japan hadn't signed the pact with Germany and somehow calmed down the situation in China,then no fuel/scrap embargo. Then when France and Netherlands fall to Nazis a skilled non military Japanese diplomatic offensive spins the seizures of French Indo China and Indonesia from the fascist collaborators while pushing the Asians for Asians line on the natives.It might work.The Reds and Chiang tear each other up in China and Japan leaves Phillipines and British holdings alone.
 
The US is not going to sit on its hands whilst the Nazis take over Europe and the Japanese take control of the Pacific. They were isolationist, not stupid. They will eventually declare war on the Axis and go to total war, except not with the same resolve as they had after Pearl. Japan knew this and thats why they attacked the US preemptive.

Japan did not *know* anything about the USA. They had a fundamentally flawed misunderstanding of the nation including believing that a surprise attack and a string of victories would cause the USA to back down. Japan attacked the USA because of the oil embargo

Yamamoto seemed to have a much better understanding.

The reason Japan attacked the USA was because they believed the USA would join if they attacked the UK. They would attack the UK because they'd attack the Dutch who were allied and also British Borneo had oil too. They needed to do that because of the accidental oil embargo the USA made because of their occupation of FIC

Japan also *believed* that the USA would declare war on them at some point. Americans on the other hand were not confident at all, they wanted a pearl harbour to get support for war with Japan, they didn't think Americans would be pleased with dying for imperial colonies nor that they would be able to pass Congress as an aggressor (ie not attacked)
 
Japan did not *know* anything about the USA. They had a fundamentally flawed misunderstanding of the nation including believing that a surprise attack and a string of victories would cause the USA to back down. Japan attacked the USA because of the oil embargo

Yamamoto seemed to have a much better understanding.

The reason Japan attacked the USA was because they believed the USA would join if they attacked the UK. They would attack the UK because they'd attack the Dutch who were allied and also British Borneo had oil too. They needed to do that because of the accidental oil embargo the USA made because of their occupation of FIC

Japan also *believed* that the USA would declare war on them at some point. Americans on the other hand were not confident at all, they wanted a pearl harbour to get support for war with Japan, they didn't think Americans would be pleased with dying for imperial colonies nor that they would be able to pass Congress as an aggressor (ie not attacked)

I think you are missing a couple of things. The Japan in this scenario behaves pretty much the same way as in OTL. They attack the British and Dutch, because of that they attack the US, because of the Philippines. So, they will still go to war with the US, even if they do defeat China. There was no limit to their ambitions.

What do you mean by accidental oil embargo? btw, the UK and Dutch embargoed them too.
 
No. WW2 was a technology and industrial war. Japan had about 1/2 the population and from 1/4 to 1/6 the gdp of the US. Japan can’t stop being an island nation importing virtually all raw materials and food. They could never have reached the US mainland and will always be vulnerable to submarine warfare. They were behind the whole war in technology and large scale manufacturing. If the US goes to total war against the Japanese in WW2, the Japanese will lose. 23 Essex class, 300,000 aircraft, 60,000 Sherman’s, 2,700 Liberty ships, etc., etc.

RSR: Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.
 
No. WW2 was a technology and industrial war. Japan had about 1/2 the population and from 1/4 to 1/6 the gdp of the US. Japan can’t stop being an island nation importing virtually all raw materials and food. They could never have reached the US mainland and will always be vulnerable to submarine warfare. They were behind the whole war in technology and large scale manufacturing. If the US goes to total war against the Japanese in WW2, the Japanese will lose. 23 Essex class, 300,000 aircraft, 60,000 Sherman’s, 2,700 Liberty ships, etc., etc.

RSR: Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.

Turns out that Bushido Spirit and Wishful Thinking can't stop steel bullets.
 
I think you are missing a couple of things. The Japan in this scenario behaves pretty much the same way as in OTL. They attack the British and Dutch, because of that they attack the US, because of the Philippines. So, they will still go to war with the US, even if they do defeat China. There was no limit to their ambitions.

What do you mean by accidental oil embargo? btw, the UK and Dutch embargoed them too.

It's not really clear from the op what they expect from Japanese behaviour. If they believe that the USA won't defend allies colonies they can avoid Philippines

I mean that the embargo was not a decision made by Roosevelt but by the unforseen outcome of administration. Roosevelt and Hull explicitly said that the freezing of Japanese assets would not stop the oil but then because he was in Newfoundland the staff didn't know what to accept (unfreeze the assets, use Brazilian money, outstanding debts, etc) and cause they hated Japan they want with a cautious approach and so oil was accidentally cut off for a month because of payment issues. The British and Dutch had no idea about American policy and were too scared to annoy USA so just followed the reality.
 
It's really hard to assess possibilities for Japan, because Japanese leadership was insane. Note that people in the Japanese leadership actually had a very realistic assessment of how a war with the U.S. would likely go (they estimated what known U.S. industry was capable of producing, and on that basis calculated that the situation would become hopeless within two years), but they went to war with the U.S. anyway. Why? It's really not very clear. There was an element of wishful thinking that the U.S. might, with amazing luck, just give up instead of pressing their advantage, and a feeling that going down fighting was better than giving up to Western demands, sure. But really, trying to diagnose it as a mistake gives Japanese planning too much credit for rationality. Leave the Japanese crazy, and there's no reason to think they won't still end up at war with the U.S., with the same result. Make Japanese planning more rational, and the changes are huge, but that's heavily underspecified; what does more rational Japan want?
 
If the war in China is settled--and there really were people urging Chiang Kai-shek to make peace even at the price of de jure recognition of Manchukuo and a Japanese military and economic presence in China proper--there is not going to be an embargo. China was the sticking point in Hull's negotiations with the Japanese.
 
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