Colonel flagg
Banned
Could Japan defeat allies if it was not busy with a war in China either it defeated China by 1941 or it reach some kind of peace with China by 1941?
Could Japan defeat allies if it was not busy with a war in China either it defeated China by 1941 or it reach some kind of peace with China by 1941?
If Japan finishes China and goes after the Allies (UK, France and Dutch) possessions then Yes. They would be able to defeat these countries due to the war in Europe.
The key is the US. If Japan basically ignores the US (No Pearl Harbor, nothing that angers the US people) it will do two things;
Looking at the situation in hindsight it always amazed me that Japan seemed to have no 'plan' to deal with the territories after the conquered them. Maybe in this situation they would be able to 'improve' that aspect of their strategy.
- Force the US to declare war or be the belligerent in the pacific conflict. This will be difficult for the US govt. to sell to the people. This will look like exactly what it is..US soldiers dying to prop up European colonialism. I don't think Roosevelt survives the next election if that happens. If the US govt. turns over it becomes a toss up as to how that unfolds.
- Allow Japan to focus on the collection and utilization of all new territories. By not having the China mess they will be able to devote the proper resources to build up and use the new territories.
All you guys didn't even read the OP did you? Its a scenario where they either win or at least make peace with China, not never made war on China at all. The embrargo still goes and the Japanese still have ambitions in the pacific.
Why does the embargo still go? The freezing of assets and the oil embargo didn't take place until the summer of 1941. They were a response to the Japanese war with China and to things Japan had done elsewhere (French Indochina) to strengthen its hand in the war with China.
The US is not going to sit on its hands whilst the Nazis take over Europe and the Japanese take control of the Pacific. They were isolationist, not stupid. They will eventually declare war on the Axis and go to total war, except not with the same resolve as they had after Pearl. Japan knew this and thats why they attacked the US preemptive.
Japan did not *know* anything about the USA. They had a fundamentally flawed misunderstanding of the nation including believing that a surprise attack and a string of victories would cause the USA to back down. Japan attacked the USA because of the oil embargo
Yamamoto seemed to have a much better understanding.
The reason Japan attacked the USA was because they believed the USA would join if they attacked the UK. They would attack the UK because they'd attack the Dutch who were allied and also British Borneo had oil too. They needed to do that because of the accidental oil embargo the USA made because of their occupation of FIC
Japan also *believed* that the USA would declare war on them at some point. Americans on the other hand were not confident at all, they wanted a pearl harbour to get support for war with Japan, they didn't think Americans would be pleased with dying for imperial colonies nor that they would be able to pass Congress as an aggressor (ie not attacked)
No. WW2 was a technology and industrial war. Japan had about 1/2 the population and from 1/4 to 1/6 the gdp of the US. Japan can’t stop being an island nation importing virtually all raw materials and food. They could never have reached the US mainland and will always be vulnerable to submarine warfare. They were behind the whole war in technology and large scale manufacturing. If the US goes to total war against the Japanese in WW2, the Japanese will lose. 23 Essex class, 300,000 aircraft, 60,000 Sherman’s, 2,700 Liberty ships, etc., etc.
RSR: Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.
I think you are missing a couple of things. The Japan in this scenario behaves pretty much the same way as in OTL. They attack the British and Dutch, because of that they attack the US, because of the Philippines. So, they will still go to war with the US, even if they do defeat China. There was no limit to their ambitions.
What do you mean by accidental oil embargo? btw, the UK and Dutch embargoed them too.