Could Japan conquer the Philippines in 1890?

I doubt that. Japan hardly was yet strong enough. And I doubt that other European nations would allow that.
 
Eh. Spain was dying by then. Japan could support the Filipino rebels more than OTL and make the resulting republic a protectorate. :p
 
Barring a (possible) intervention of other powers, Japan could probably defeat the Spanish forces in East Asia, and handily at that. Outright conquering the Philippines would be harder (the Pilipinos might violently object, as they did historically with regard to the US conquest) but probably within Japanese capabilities given sufficient time and will, assuming again that no other power interferes seriously.
 
1890 would be on the edge of their capabilities although it would certainly be able to do so within the decade. Japan would have two decades of modernization at that point, and would have modern ships built in Britain available to her. Given Imperial Japan's preference for sneak attacks, they should be able to beat any Spanish fleet there and land troops on the islands.

But do the Philippines have any raw materials they want in 1890? Going straight for a Western European colony might spook the major European powers in a way that the Sino-Japanese War 1894-95 did not, or the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 did not. Japan needs the raw materials of Korea and Manchuria, not the Philippines.
 
1890 would be on the edge of their capabilities although it would certainly be able to do so within the decade. Japan would have two decades of modernization at that point, and would have modern ships built in Britain available to her. Given Imperial Japan's preference for sneak attacks, they should be able to beat any Spanish fleet there and land troops on the islands.

But do the Philippines have any raw materials they want in 1890? Going straight for a Western European colony might spook the major European powers in a way that the Sino-Japanese War 1894-95 did not, or the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 did not. Japan needs the raw materials of Korea and Manchuria, not the Philippines.

Japan had an eye toward Pilipino rebels, and they did look at Japan with considerable hope. In 1896, the Spaniards did act rashly toward a Japanese ship in Manila supposedly smuggling stuff to Katipunan, or something similar (I don't remember the details). IOTL, Japan had been counselled to moderation by the Triple Intervention, and Spain was not TOO provocative. But a similar incident in a slightly different context might cause Japan to go to war for national honour's sake, and the Philippines would then fall in Japan's lap relatively easily (at least as a de facto protectorate), IF Japan wants them. The islands DO have resources Japan might use, but I am not sure these were known, or accessible, at the time or close to it.
 
I don't think so. Even the Spanish navy, with the modern 1st class battleship Pelayo, could have seen them off, but Spain would have had allies as well. Europe would not have allowed it.
 
I don't think so. Even the Spanish navy, with the modern 1st class battleship Pelayo, could have seen them off, but Spain would have had allies as well.

I don't think the Pelayo or any other big ship would be in stationed in the Philippines. They certainly were not with the Spanish forces Commodore Dewey engaged during the Battle of Manila Bay. It could be sent in response to a defeat in the Philippines, but the Japanese fleet would have plenty of time to prepare. Since the Pelayo is only an ironclad warship, it's not like it would be impervious. Still, given the Japanese ships in 1890, it could still prove too much for Japan. How much could its armor withstand? If it isn't impervious to the guns of Japan's own British built ironclads (with 240 mm and 170mm guns), I don't think the Spanish will win. If it is impervious to those guns, then it should win. However by 1892 when Japan would have three French built protected cruisers with their 320mm guns, perhaps not.

Japan was getting a lot more modern ships in the early 1890s. So even if it can't by 1890, it doesn't need many more years before it can do so.

Europe would not have allowed it.

This is a real possibility. Japan would probably need some sort of diplomatic go ahead if they wished to keep any conquests, particularly from Britain, but probably France as well.
 
my own opinion is that 1892 is probably the soonest due to the timing of when they got their better ships and trained up sufficiently to get the most of them

A Japan that focuses on the Philippines and Guam instead of Korea and Manchuria would be very interesting. Although probably a showdown between Russia and Japan regarding the Russian moves on Korea and Manchuria is probably inevitable
 
But.... why?! The Philippines has nothing to offer Japan, extends and stretches their military too thin, and is in the wrong direction of where their natural expansion should occur and draws their military away from natural adversaries. Needlessly threatens other nations and trade routes.
 
But.... why?! The Philippines has nothing to offer Japan, extends and stretches their military too thin, and is in the wrong direction of where their natural expansion should occur and draws their military away from natural adversaries. Needlessly threatens other nations and trade routes.

a crap load of rice to start with, and there are some natural resources that are exploitable once the investment is made (specifically copper, nickel, gold and coal)

http://www.philippine-history.org/about-philippines.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boyongan_mine

plus you can grow rubber and quinine there pretty readily.. it is just a matter of getting the plants there and starting plantations

It would scare the crap out of the Dutch though, and make the British and French nervous
 
Barring a (possible) intervention of other powers, Japan could probably defeat the Spanish forces in East Asia, and handily at that. Outright conquering the Philippines would be harder (the Pilipinos might violently object, as they did historically with regard to the US conquest) but probably within Japanese capabilities given sufficient time and will, assuming again that no other power interferes seriously.

Protectorate status!

But.... why?! The Philippines has nothing to offer Japan, extends and stretches their military too thin, and is in the wrong direction of where their natural expansion should occur and draws their military away from natural adversaries. Needlessly threatens other nations and trade routes.

It has rice and copper and nickel, it plays to the IJN instead of the IJA, and it can easily be used as a base to expand further south when the Dutch start losing their grip.

It would scare the crap out of the Dutch though, and make the British and French nervous

Anything that scares the Dutch is fine in my book! :p

Though yeah, Britain and France need to be pacified somehow. Maybe a few concessions in the Philippines?
 
Protectorate status!



It has rice and copper and nickel, it plays to the IJN instead of the IJA, and it can easily be used as a base to expand further south when the Dutch start losing their grip.



Anything that scares the Dutch is fine in my book! :p

Though yeah, Britain and France need to be pacified somehow. Maybe a few concessions in the Philippines?
Uh, those natural resources are not profitable enough for Japan in the Philippines. And no way an independent Philippines under protectorate status in the 1890s. We need to be realistic and not go with the 1% or less chances of what would happen if we made a PoD, just so you can have the result you want. Pick a PoD and see what happens. But if you want a specific outcome, especially in this case, pick MANY pods (in my view that is cheating).
 
Uh, those natural resources are not profitable enough for Japan in the Philippines. And no way an independent Philippines under protectorate status in the 1890s. We need to be realistic and not go with the 1% or less chances of what would happen if we made a PoD, just so you can have the result you want. Pick a PoD and see what happens. But if you want a specific outcome, especially in this case, pick MANY pods (in my view that is cheating).

Not cheating unless specified by the OP. The OP never specified anything except the year 1890 of military capability to conquer them philipppines.

Everything is realistic as long as there is a chance. A lot in otl had smaller possibilities but a huge butterfly consequences.

The profitability for Japan would depend on the cost of invesment. If the invesment is like US otl(war vs Spain few months, then war vs locals for years) then it is not worth it. If they just provided weaponry or merely financial help to the rebels in exchange for economic special treatment treaty(this happened with US in otl after independence in 1946) that becomes highly profitable due to lower cost, not much loss of life for the Japanese.

In otl the japanese did provide weaponry to the rebels although somewhat limited.

Japan's treatment of Philippines or how they view Philippines would be different due to language, culture, abundant presence of western technology. This differential treatment(colony or assimilation or outright sale) even was debated by the Japanese back then on how to deal with Taiwan which has less cultural similarities with Japan than Korea.
 
This is a real possibility. Japan would probably need some sort of diplomatic go ahead if they wished to keep any conquests, particularly from Britain, but probably France as well.

France was no friend of the Japanese in this period, if the Triple Intervention is any clue. Plus, they'd probably not want to alienate Spain too much while Morocco is an outstanding issue.
 
I dint have to, because the US never made the Philippines a protectorate in that period. It was a colony, with no self-determination.

well it did have a National Assembly consisting of Filipinos by 1902

Really though it is important to remember that the annexation of the Philippines (and Puerto Rico too) was fought pretty fiercely at home in the political arena

http://historyproject.ucdavis.edu/lessons/view_lesson.php?id=36

that doesn't change the facts on the ground in the islands, but it does show that a POD of departure easily can be created for a timeline where the US refuses to annex either and grants them the same independence that Cuba received
 
well it did have a National Assembly consisting of Filipinos by 1902

Really though it is important to remember that the annexation of the Philippines (and Puerto Rico too) was fought pretty fiercely at home in the political arena

http://historyproject.ucdavis.edu/lessons/view_lesson.php?id=36

that doesn't change the facts on the ground in the islands, but it does show that a POD of departure easily can be created for a timeline where the US refuses to annex either and grants them the same independence that Cuba received

Puerto Rico probably not. Too small, would be too weak to defend itself at that critical location along trade routes. The US knew a canal, whether Nicaragua or Panama, would be built and they knew they would need to control the trade routes to and from.It is much easier PoD to keep the Platt Amendment from happening and Cuba annexed than it is to give Puerto Rica the same protectorate status.
 
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