1890 would be on the edge of their capabilities although it would certainly be able to do so within the decade. Japan would have two decades of modernization at that point, and would have modern ships built in Britain available to her. Given Imperial Japan's preference for sneak attacks, they should be able to beat any Spanish fleet there and land troops on the islands.
But do the Philippines have any raw materials they want in 1890? Going straight for a Western European colony might spook the major European powers in a way that the Sino-Japanese War 1894-95 did not, or the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 did not. Japan needs the raw materials of Korea and Manchuria, not the Philippines.
I don't think so. Even the Spanish navy, with the modern 1st class battleship Pelayo, could have seen them off, but Spain would have had allies as well.
Europe would not have allowed it.
But.... why?! The Philippines has nothing to offer Japan, extends and stretches their military too thin, and is in the wrong direction of where their natural expansion should occur and draws their military away from natural adversaries. Needlessly threatens other nations and trade routes.
Barring a (possible) intervention of other powers, Japan could probably defeat the Spanish forces in East Asia, and handily at that. Outright conquering the Philippines would be harder (the Pilipinos might violently object, as they did historically with regard to the US conquest) but probably within Japanese capabilities given sufficient time and will, assuming again that no other power interferes seriously.
But.... why?! The Philippines has nothing to offer Japan, extends and stretches their military too thin, and is in the wrong direction of where their natural expansion should occur and draws their military away from natural adversaries. Needlessly threatens other nations and trade routes.
It would scare the crap out of the Dutch though, and make the British and French nervous
Given Imperial Japan's preference for sneak attacks, they should be able to beat any Spanish fleet there and land troops on the islands.
Uh, those natural resources are not profitable enough for Japan in the Philippines. And no way an independent Philippines under protectorate status in the 1890s. We need to be realistic and not go with the 1% or less chances of what would happen if we made a PoD, just so you can have the result you want. Pick a PoD and see what happens. But if you want a specific outcome, especially in this case, pick MANY pods (in my view that is cheating).Protectorate status!
It has rice and copper and nickel, it plays to the IJN instead of the IJA, and it can easily be used as a base to expand further south when the Dutch start losing their grip.
Anything that scares the Dutch is fine in my book!
Though yeah, Britain and France need to be pacified somehow. Maybe a few concessions in the Philippines?
Uh, those natural resources are not profitable enough for Japan in the Philippines. And no way an independent Philippines under protectorate status in the 1890s. We need to be realistic and not go with the 1% or less chances of what would happen if we made a PoD, just so you can have the result you want. Pick a PoD and see what happens. But if you want a specific outcome, especially in this case, pick MANY pods (in my view that is cheating).
And no way an independent Philippines under protectorate status in the 1890s.
This is a real possibility. Japan would probably need some sort of diplomatic go ahead if they wished to keep any conquests, particularly from Britain, but probably France as well.
I dint have to, because the US never made the Philippines a protectorate in that period. It was a colony, with no self-determination.Tell that to the Americans of the same period.![]()
I dint have to, because the US never made the Philippines a protectorate in that period. It was a colony, with no self-determination.
well it did have a National Assembly consisting of Filipinos by 1902
Really though it is important to remember that the annexation of the Philippines (and Puerto Rico too) was fought pretty fiercely at home in the political arena
http://historyproject.ucdavis.edu/lessons/view_lesson.php?id=36
that doesn't change the facts on the ground in the islands, but it does show that a POD of departure easily can be created for a timeline where the US refuses to annex either and grants them the same independence that Cuba received