Could Italy have been knocked out in 1916 given the outlined circumstances?

  • Yes

    Votes: 19 61.3%
  • No, not even under these circumstance

    Votes: 9 29.0%
  • No, these circumstances aren't possible

    Votes: 3 9.7%

  • Total voters
    31
So the Trentino Offensive was meant to cut off the bulk of the Italian army from the rest of Italy and Austro-Hungarian forces nearly made it to the plains of Venetia before being checked by the Italians and forced to withdraw by the sudden Brusilov Offensive.

Say Cardona fumbles the responce even more than OTL, and the Brusilov Offensive simply doesn't materialize (due to either the preparations being behind schedule or Brusilov himself getting wrapped up in some political intrigue at Stavka), could Italy be knocked out in mid-1916?
 
So the Trentino Offensive was meant to cut off the bulk of the Italian army from the rest of Italy and Austro-Hungarian forces nearly made it to the plains of Venetia before being checked by the Italians and forced to withdraw by the sudden Brusilov Offensive.

Say Cardona fumbles the responce even more than OTL, and the Brusilov Offensive simply doesn't materialize (due to either the preparations being behind schedule or Brusilov himself getting wrapped up in some political intrigue at Stavka), could Italy be knocked out in mid-1916?

With (massive, not piecemeal) German assistance, quite possibly. Without it, no way.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
It doesn't knock Italy out of the war, it may cost them the Po Valley or a big chunk of the Po Valley. Just too good a defensive terrain for the Italians. What A-H gets here is knocking out Italy ability to attack without assistance for the rest of the war and if the CP win, favorable peace terms from Italy if desired.
 
Even if the Austrians or Austrians+Germans roll down and take Venice, the British and French would heavily reinforce the Italians (even if it means diminishing the planned Somme offensive).

Whatever remained of the Italian army plus British and French divisions would hold the the Po / Lake Gardia line at least.

The loss of Venice would give the Austrians sea control of the northern Adriatic for what its worth, but nothing of real immediate strategic significance would be lost by the Allies.

If you can knock Italy out of the war, then a significant number of Austrian divisions could be used elsewhere. Probably would lead to a Central Powers victory eventually.

But really what choice does Italy have but to continue on and hope for the eventual victory of the Allies to restore the situation. Britain is supplying all her coal needs. Smart Germany/Austria would have to offer good and clear guarantees for the Italians to consider an armistice. i.e. 1914 boundaries (in exchange the Italians agreeing to the new situation in the Balkans).
 
It doesn't knock Italy out of the war, it may cost them the Po Valley or a big chunk of the Po Valley. Just too good a defensive terrain for the Italians. What A-H gets here is knocking out Italy ability to attack without assistance for the rest of the war and if the CP win, favorable peace terms from Italy if desired.
Would Italy fight on? The OTL outcome of the Battle of Asiago was enough to make the Salandra Cabinet fall, the Italian army being wiped off the board and the occupation of part of Italy's industrial heartland should set off some pretty huge shockwaves in Rome.

the British and French would heavily reinforce the Italians (even if it means diminishing the planned Somme offensive).
Would they? That would mean prioritizing Italy over Verdun, and I don't see the French making that choice.

The loss of Venice would give the Austrians sea control of the northern Adriatic for what its worth, but nothing of real immediate strategic significance would be lost by the Allies.
IDK, the neutralization of most of Italy's soldiers and war materials would be a pretty significant strategic shift.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
It doesn't knock Italy out of the war, it may cost them the Po Valley or a big chunk of the Po Valley.
...
... the ... Po-valley ??

If they were lucky they might reach a line from Lake Garde to some miles north og the Po-estuary, maybe along the Adige river ... and Venetion, but nowhere the Po river

Even if the Austrians or Austrians+Germans roll down and take Venice, the British and French would heavily reinforce the Italians (even if it means diminishing the planned Somme offensive).
...
And from what do you draw this conviction ?

The Somme offensive was part of the planned simultaneous an all-out attack of the Entente-powers on all fronts, simultaneously with the russian what-we-call- Brussilov offensive.
... well ... as said : 'planned simultaneous'. The timing did not really worked out.

However, I have at least some doubts, that they would skip and/or seriously endanger the hoped for success of this offensive by supporting the italians in defending what was even for them a defendable position (as above sketched).

However, the defeat in this battle, having lost all of Venetia, the CP looking alleast indefeatable in having repulsed the other Entente-powers on all fronts including newly opened up like Romania, though at least in the short run not immediatly victorious overall ...
IMO they would at least in autumn - if not earlier - start to look for comming to terms with the CP, most likely rather 'discrete' at first.



Could Italy have been knocked out in 1916 given the outlined circumstances?

with emphasis on 'could' ... yes.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
... the ... Po-valley ??

If they were lucky they might reach a line from Lake Garde to some miles north og the Po-estuary, maybe along the Adige river ... and Venetion, but nowhere the Po river

And from what do you draw this conviction ?

We see butterflies differently. I tend to see a lot more opportunity and impact from multiple levels of butterflies. While the likely very good case scenario for A-H involve the capture or destruction of one or two Italian armies followed by the French and UK sending enough troops to stabilize the lines, this scenario is not the best case. Add the winds going A-H way the way the winds went Japan's way for the first six months of WW2, then yes the Po Valley is doable. It takes a series of POD's, luck or butterflies to make it happen, but I think you can get close with the following.

  • Something really messes up the Brusoliv offensive. This is the obvious POD, so something happened to distract Russia, say a failed assassination attempt on the Tsar followed by a mild purge. For the Japan example, think internal American politics.
  • The Italians saw the troop buildup. Here the Italians misread the intel or fail to react to the intel. Again, think of the USA not acting on Japanese intel.
  • Surprise is achieved and initial success. The A-H hit green fields on the first day. Again, think Pearl Harbor type luck/skill/fortune.
  • So we have a situation where the Italians have lost a couple of armies in a couple of weeks. We will need a few other factors to lose the valley. We need the French/UK not to reinforce for some reason. We then need the Italian commander to make a mistake, for Italian morale to break and have mass desertions, or for the A-H commander to have a bit of Napoleonic like success. Then taking a big chunk or most of the Po Valley looks doable.
 
I suspect that it would neuter Italy but not necessarily kill. The Italians would be on the defensive and dependent on UK/French support (and screaming for such) which would have significant consequences elsewhere. It would probably mean some AH troops freed up, and some UK/F tied up.
The medium-to-long term consequences would be interesting and almost certainly had for the Allies.
 
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