Could Italy have been defeated by either Ethiopia or Greece?

Ethiopia has a reasonably large force when the Italians invaded and were able to cause Italy some trouble, but ultimately the Italians prevailed and conquered Ethiopia.

The Greeks did defeat the Italians and stop their invasion, but did not crush them, and ultimately Germany intervened and gave Italy a victory.

Is there any way Ethiopia could have held off the Italians and remained independent? Is there anyway Greece could not only hold Italy off, but drive them out of Albania, humiliating them?
 
I guess a more successful Christmas offensive and an earlier offensive in the south would help the Ethiopians. Still winning the war will be very hard as Mussolini would under no circumstance sue for peace and pushing Italy into the sea in both Eritrea and Ethiopia will be very hard.
 
The Italians losing in Ethiopia could happen:

OTL the Ethiopians delayed mobilization until the Italians actually invaded (hoping the obvious Italian agression would lead to an international response, didn't happen of course). In a different TL they mobilize anyway and cause sharp reverses to the Italians early.

Poison gas. When things started to bog down, the Italians used it, the Eithiopians didn't have an answer (no gas masks). Perhaps the international community pushes the Italians early and warns them there will be repercussion on their use. OTL the american black community at the time followed this war closely and as you would expect with much sympathy torwards the Ethiopians, perhaps in a different TL Roosevelt picks up on this and wanting to preserve support (along with general anti colonialism) threatens the Italians early with sanctions (asset seizures, trade embargos, etc...) if they use poison gas.
 

sharlin

Banned
Greece did pritty much run roughshod over the Italians until they outran their supplies and then the Germans waded in to help the Italians out.
 

Cook

Banned
Is there any way Ethiopia could have held off the Italians and remained independent?
If the British had closed the Suez Canal to Italian troop ship and ammunition ships once hostilities had commenced, as the Suez Charter permits and the League of Nations embargo to be effective required, then yes, the Italian invasion would have failed.
Is there anyway Greece could not only hold Italy off, but drive them out of Albania, humiliating them?
The Greek counterattack drove the Italians out of more than half of Albania, so yes - a complete defeat was potentially possible.
 
The Greek counterattack drove the Italians out of more than half of Albania, so yes - a complete defeat was potentially possible.

As can be seen on this map, the Greek offensive pushed the Italians back into Albania, but the Greek advance was nowhere close to "more than half of Albania". The area occupied was more like a tenth. (Half of the pink area on the map is Greek territory regained.)

AlbGre1940.jpg

It was a great achievement for the Greek army, but should not be exaggerated.

AlbGre1940.jpg
 
Oh good - a Wikipedia map - so much easier than finding something accurate.

The Greek counteroffensive had reached Elbasan on the Shkumbin river before they pulled back and consolidated.

Pushing back an invading force and mantaining the territorial gain are two different things. The Greek counteroffensive pushed back the Italians, but unless we find a pretty solid POD there's no way the Greek army could capitalize on this achievement. AFAIK the problem was their horrible supply system (and the supplies themselves or, better, the lack of). If we can find a realistic way to erase such problems, Greece could gain victory - albeit a phyrric one. Germany in such a scenario is bound to intervene, as IOTL, and after that Greece is going to fall.


The British closing the Canal to Italian miltary shipping is, on the other hand, a very interesting idea for an Italian defeat in Africa. It seems a good POD.
 
Oh good - a Wikipedia map - so much easier than finding something accurate.

The Greek counteroffensive had reached Elbasan on the Shkumbin river before they pulled back and consolidated.
Would you mind providing a source for this statement? One of the last battles during the Greek offensive was at the Klisura pass, which is within the space colored on the map and far to the south of Elbasan.
 
Would you mind providing a source for this statement? One of the last battles during the Greek offensive was at the Klisura pass, which is within the space colored on the map and far to the south of Elbasan.

Both of you are right - the Greek advance was towards the sea (i.e. westwards) in the later stages not northwards.

Kilsura was at the Southern end of the front and Elbasan (which I don't think ever fell but may be wrong) was at the Northern end.

Saying the Greeks occupied half of Albania is a bit optimistic.
 
Both of you are right - the Greek advance was towards the sea (i.e. westwards) in the later stages not northwards.

Kilsura was at the Southern end of the front and Elbasan (which I don't think ever fell but may be wrong) was at the Northern end.

Saying the Greeks occupied half of Albania is a bit optimistic.
To be more exact, the Greeks reached up to Pogradec, (at the southwestern edge of the western lake) which is close to the source of the Shkumbin, which passes through Elbasan, though considerably to the north and west from the source. And yes, it's considerably less than half of Albania, as the Greeks never reached so far north in western Albania - they never captured Berat or Vlora.

See a larger map of Albania for comparison.
 
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