Could Hitler had defeated Soviet Union without Britain

marathag

Banned
It's been pointed out but it is worth mentioning again, without the RN blockade, Germany can buy supplies from abroad.
Before the War, the Germans were not buying so much as bartering. The RM wasn't convertabke, and with the Germans hitting Autarky really hard, they did deals, trading tooling for Oil with Mexico, for example.
Probkem was, value of bulk commodities was increasing, while tooling and manufactured goods was falling as countries worked out of the depression.

Their position is improved once they starting looting captured countries for Gold and such, but that's temporary reprieve, and for others, like Sweden or Switzerland, who else were they to drade with?
 
I think the Germans have a good shot, as they can get the Oil they need temporarily from foreign sources. Also, 35 more divisions for the drive on Moscow cant hurt. Plus, with no Lend-Lease, the Soviets will have a severe truck shortage. Combining these factors, I say it is 50-50 they win or lose.
 
what are we assuming the other Axis powers are doing? Italy is always disparaged but they could have replaced the poorly armed Romania/Hungary forces here for a massive improvement and Japan might enter also?

Unlikely. In 1940, Mussolini was out to make his own "parallel war", and that had to gain ground at the expense of France and Britain, not the USSR. If the Franco-British not only offer an armistice but also, rather quickly, peace terms, that Germany obviously accepts, then the Italians have gained little or nothing. A blueprint is the meager result of the armistice with France.

Mussolini will also construe this as Hitler deciding on his own solely what's good for Germany, ignoring Italy's "rightful" claims. It's entirely possible that, in a fit of pique, he does not send one soldier to the Eastern Front, unlike in OTL.

A further possibility is that he does declare, once Hitler has his hands full in the East, his own personal war against Greece (more probably) or Yugoslavia. A consolation prize based on the assumption that the Franco-British caving in means they have generally lost appetite for any confrontation. This might go better than in OTL for several reasons, but even so, it's instability on Germany's Southern flank and closer than they'd like to Ploesti. And, on the contrary, it might go almost as badly as in OTL.

OTOH, it's possible that the Finns, seeing that they have nothing to fear from anybody else but their old Russian foe, are even more enthusiastic in this ATL.
 
I think the Germans have a good shot, as they can get the Oil they need temporarily from foreign sources. Also, 35 more divisions for the drive on Moscow cant hurt.

They can very well hurt the logistical system, which was overloaded OTL without those divisions and forced the Germans to stop now and then. The real killer are the gas-guzzling PDs, of course, not the additional infantry.

Plus, with no Lend-Lease, the Soviets will have a severe truck shortage. Combining these factors, I say it is 50-50 they win or lose.

First, Lend-Lease was essential in making the RKKA more mobile and offensive-worthy. If the Soviets are in for bare survival in the long term in hopes that something will change, they don't need the OTL smashing breakthroughs and deep penetrations in the German rear.
Second, even with this much worse scenario, the critical moment remains the fall of 1941. If the Soviets don't collapse then, well, they still have a chance in 1942. And in the fall of 1941, there was no Lend-Lease, and even in 1942 it was just trickling to the front lines.
 

thaddeus

Donor
what are we assuming the other Axis powers are doing? Italy is always disparaged but they could have replaced the poorly armed Romania/Hungary forces here for a massive improvement and Japan might enter also?

Unlikely. In 1940, Mussolini was out to make his own "parallel war", and that had to gain ground at the expense of France and Britain, not the USSR. If the Franco-British not only offer an armistice but also, rather quickly, peace terms, that Germany obviously accepts, then the Italians have gained little or nothing. A blueprint is the meager result of the armistice with France.

Mussolini will also construe this as Hitler deciding on his own solely what's good for Germany, ignoring Italy's "rightful" claims. It's entirely possible that, in a fit of pique, he does not send one soldier to the Eastern Front, unlike in OTL.

A further possibility is that he does declare, once Hitler has his hands full in the East, his own personal war against Greece (more probably) or Yugoslavia. A consolation prize based on the assumption that the Franco-British caving in means they have generally lost appetite for any confrontation. This might go better than in OTL for several reasons, but even so, it's instability on Germany's Southern flank and closer than they'd like to Ploesti. And, on the contrary, it might go almost as badly as in OTL.

OTOH, it's possible that the Finns, seeing that they have nothing to fear from anybody else but their old Russian foe, are even more enthusiastic in this ATL.

that is a good scenario. if Italy did take a pass it is a case of "most likely you go your way and I go mine?"

they might find themselves shut out of the Balkans for more compliant allies (minions)?
 

marathag

Banned
I think the Germans have a good shot, as they can get the Oil they need temporarily from foreign sources.
After Mexican owned Oil Tankers were sunk by U-boats, un likely for them to restart trade.

Denying the Soviets the use of Baku Oil, is really easy than trying to get it back to the Reich, the Russians didn't use pipeline much, instead relying on tanker cars by rail, and barges.
 
Once the full might of the Soviet Union was in play, you'd be right.
But we're looking at here is the decisive moment of the fall of 1941. At that moment, the point is not the obvious long-term staying power of the Soviets; the Germans might just achieve a first-round KO victory. And you'll have to admit that in 1941, the Germans had had their share of Western and Southern distractions.
I’ve never really believed that. Entire factories and millions of workers had been moved beyond the reach of the Heer and the Luftwaffe behind the Urals. They also had a significant manpower advantage and they managed to outproduce the Germans in key areas. Hitler and the German High Command had severely underestimated the manufacturing power of the Soviet Union, the quality of their equipment, the number of troops that they could put in the field, the treachery of terrain and the weather and the patriotic fervor of the Russian people. They were fighting a war of annihilation. To add to their problems, the Germans were brutal with the Eastern Europeans that were under their occupation. People that might have otherwise supported the Germans to free themselves from the Soviet Union, became partisans instead.
 
Their position is improved once they starting looting captured countries for Gold and such, but that's temporary reprieve, and for others, like Sweden or Switzerland, who else were they to drade with?
My guess would be Venezuela for Oil, not sure for others ressources.
 

marathag

Banned
My guess would be Venezuela for Oil, not sure for others ressources.
years back, of all the Latine american countries Oil, only Mexico did any deals, and those started before FDR's 'Good Neighbor' policy, when Mexico had just nationalized all the foreign Oil concessions, and the US Majors blackballed them in sales over most of the globe. The Fascist powers were the only ones who wanted Oil, and made a deal that Cardenas couldn't refuse.
By 1940, Mexico had anew President that really wanted to improve relations.
Venezuela, under the Contreras Junta, was Pro-US, and accepted Jewish Refugees , so the Nazi and them were not exactly simpatico.
 
No. It was a minor concurrent factor at most.

The delay? Was going to happen anyway, because of the weather and, frankly, because of incomplete preparations.

The allocation of troops? Well, this allows us to consider the downside of having, say, the 2. and 5. Panzerdivisionen participating in Barbarossa from day one, not mention the other two that were in Africa. Fine, I read in posts above, more strength available, bad news for the Soviets.
Now, does anybody remember why the Germans stopped and twiddled their thumbs every now and then in 1941? Was it because of a shortage of tanks?
No, it was because of a shortage of supplies.
More tanks = more fuel needed.
Having four more Panzerdivisionen means hitting that wall earlier on.

It was decisive, as the equipment usage prevented the initiation of the campaign on June 10th, by which point the weather-induced flooding had receded. More important, however, was the allocation of 12th Army for occupation duty in Yugoslavia, which meant Army Group South was short an Army and therefore ultimately led to the diversion to Kiev of 2nd Panzer in August.
 
No Way the Third Reich could invade and Conquer the USSR

First: lack of Intelligence information about Red Army
The Wehrmacht had even no idea who is who in Red army or it full strength, Oh Boy were they surprised as discovery it's overpowering them
At begin for each German Solider were 2 Red army soldiers who want to kill him, later that change to 1:4 ratio and Stalin got reserve to go 1:8 ratio
in one of rear recordings of Hitler private conversation he say in 1944

"Had i knew how big the Soviets force were, i never had started this War [operation Barbarossa]"

Second: lack of Logistic of Wehrmacht
Operation Barbarossa was from Logistic point of view a disaster
it could not catch up with fast moving troops, the problem that main road on map were in reality unpaved roads, that turn into mud canals if it rain.
Next to that has Soviet Railway a different track width, incompatible for use by German trains.
also not provide the Troops with right Winter equipment on Time...

Third: Climate
Russian springtime and autumn had a lovely conditions called Rasputiza aka Marshal Mud.
were roads, fields turn into sea of mud a nightmare for motorized Warfare
Next to that the lovely icy cold Russian winters that hit the Wehrmacht on way to Moscow while equip for Sommer warfare....
That Winter of 1941 killed more Wehrmacht Solders as by Red Army attacks...

Four: Strategic issues
Original Barbarossa was replay what Napoleon dit with his grand Army in 1812, what ended in fiasco for Napoleon.
But the Generals were confident that would succeed and run in same trap
Next to that were issue between Hitler and his Generals about master plan to deal with situation after Fiasco of Moscow.
And faithful day that Hitler discover on map the town of Stalingrad.
also were Hitler total insane orders that let to down fall of 5th Army at Stalingrad and Battle of Kursk,
From here the Wehrmacht was on run follow by angry Red Army

The Rest is history...
 
The oil would come up through Persia instead. Considering in this scenario, the British have already lost hundreds of thousands dead to the Germans, I think their anti-Nazi sentiment would be pretty strong.
Where? OTL British losses before Dynamo were perhaps fifteen thousand dead.
 
With England out of the war and no Lend Lease the Soviets are doomed. Forgetting the additional troops and planes for the Axis the loss of Lend Lease would have been disastrous for the Soviets. The amount of food , chemicals for explosives , rails and rolling stock, trucks,high octane aviation fuel plus other war material besides armaments would have crippled the Red Army. Just the loss of food alone would have forced the Soviets to keep millions more men out of the armed forces to keep the country fed and stay revolution. The Siberian rail road would have collapsed due overuse and no repair without lend lease, with it it was barely kept running. The large Red army would have become a more static force without the US trucks and jeeps. These factors would led to a Soviet collapse in 1942-43. Large numbers of under fed troops immobile and unable to counter a Wehrmacht that is not hindered by a second front spells the end for Stalin.
 
Lots of comments but few that are actually gaming out the key economic and logistical issues. Britain, even if out of the war is not going to be giving Germany heaps of cash or stuff for free. The German economy is pretty much maxed with nothing to trade but goods its looted from its victims. So access to the sea will not actually help it much , USA is not going to give credit and very unlikely to accept stuff it knows is looted.

Nothing changes conditions on the eastern front, Barbarossa still cannot launch earlier due to the weather, Stalin will actually know they are coming ( no need for troops to train or rebuild in Poland for an invasion of British territory or whatever excuse the Germans gave OTL ) nor will the railways let any more troops/supplies ( more troops = less supplies and via versa ) reach the front. All any extra troops can really be is replacements and Germany in OTL already had enough of those till around 43.
 
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