Could Germany have produced VX in militarily useful amounts during WW2?

Hendryk

Banned
In OTL, VX was discovered in 1952 and initially intended for use as a pesticide. Its toxicity didn't go unnoticed and by 1954 research was underway to use it as a weaponized nerve agent.

My question is, would it have been possible for a German chemist to have discovered it sometime in the 1930s? And if so, would Germany have been able to produce it in militarily useful amounts, independently of whether it would actually use it? How about Japan?
 
In OTL, VX was discovered in 1952 and initially intended for use as a pesticide. Its toxicity didn't go unnoticed and by 1954 research was underway to use it as a weaponized nerve agent.

My question is, would it have been possible for a German chemist to have discovered it sometime in the 1930s? And if so, would Germany have been able to produce it in militarily useful amounts, independently of whether it would actually use it? How about Japan?

I suppose its possible they could discover it, IG Farben was way ahead of their time and a world leader in this stuff, however given OTL German experience with the G series of nerve agents (Soman, Tabun, Sarin) It wouldn't likely help them them that much

These agents are generally unstable and difficult to produce in the mass quantities needed for ww2 era carpet bombing airbursting, or aircraft spraying methods. Sarin alone was plenty toxic to cause a lot of deaths even in the smallest quantities

The problem was that German nerve agents where totally inferior in terms of production ability to British Anthrax bio agent and American Lewisite blister agent... and the abwehr for all its failings did have good intel on those programs. The generalstaff after 1941 became acutely aware that for a few thousand or perhaps tens of thousands of casualties they might cause with their nerve agents over london, they would face the extermination of germany with anthrax in matter of weeks... the british stocks where so poisonous, and so difficult to decontaminate, that Germany would have been turned into a 600 mile wide graveyard with their entire culture eliminated

the only way they could employ their nerve agents (even if they got vx) and not bring the wrath of god upon themselves would be in a halifax type scenario where the british leave the conflict and the germans employ the weapons against the russians (who lack the heavy bombers and ultra lethal agents to strike back as effectively as the west)
 

Commissar

Banned
In OTL, VX was discovered in 1952 and initially intended for use as a pesticide. Its toxicity didn't go unnoticed and by 1954 research was underway to use it as a weaponized nerve agent.

My question is, would it have been possible for a German chemist to have discovered it sometime in the 1930s? And if so, would Germany have been able to produce it in militarily useful amounts, independently of whether it would actually use it? How about Japan?

I actually ran such a scenario in a research paper. I found under the right conditions, Germany could have made roughly 500 tons of VX.

Doesn't sound like much, but spray one ton of it over London and you are talking at least 47,000 causalities on the first day and several thousand more over the next couple of months with health effects lasting decades.

And that is if proper Nerve Agent countermeasures are employed.

Targeting Ports, the Luftwaffe could seriously disrupt Allied Buildup for D-Day and delay the Invasion long enough for the A-Bomb to come aboard B-29s.

Targeting Airfields would throw the bomber war into the toilet and buy the Luftwaffe time to rebuild till again, the A-Bomb B-29s arrive.

Otherwise they can use them exclusively in combination with other Nerve Agents against the Soviets to halt their advance.

Doesn't really win them the war, just changes how they lose.
 
German usage of Chemical and Biological Weapons would result in British Retaliation. That is the very reason why Hitler did not use them during the war.

The simplest way to compare it would be to the USSR and the US with their ICBMs and Nuclear Weapons during world war two.
 

Hendryk

Banned
German usage of Chemical and Biological Weapons would result in British Retaliation. That is the very reason why Hitler did not use them during the war.
Obviously. But I'm drawing a distinction between capability and actual use. I'd also like to ask the question for Japan, since, in its case, there was no shying away from using chemical and bacteriological weapons in China.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Obviously. But I'm drawing a distinction between capability and actual use. I'd also like to ask the question for Japan, since, in its case, there was no shying away from using chemical and bacteriological weapons in China.

The Japanese really didn't have the capacity for making nerve agents. They did have a bio-weapons program that mostly demonstrated that if you stake someone out next to a bomb containing fleas, the fleas will survive and likely bite him in retaliation for their unfriendly treatment. They also lacked the ability to properly weaponize the germs they were playing with.

Japan, even to a greater degree than Germany, was vulnerable to overwhelming retaliation. 8,000 pound of firebombs and 8,000 pounds of Mustard or Lewisite canisters are still just 8,000 pounds of bombs. Simple to drop, simple to transport.

In the case of the Japanese, with their obsession with showing how costly invading the Home Islands was going to be to the Americans, cracking open the WMD door would have been utterly insane. For all of Churchill's threats and talk, it is unlikely that the British would depopulate Germany (and a decent part of central Europe) with Anthrax; in the Pacific War it is quite a bit easier to imagine usage, especially once the details of Bataan and Malaya become known, in retaliation for Japanese use of gas.

BTW: As a note to a previous poster - The Germans lacked aircraft with sufficient range to strike a large part of Britain, so deployment against air bases in enough quantity to deter brutal retaliation is a bit unlikely.
 

Thande

Donor
At first glance I see no reason why the Germans couldn't have discovered it earlier, they just need more people looking into different organophosphate possibilities. (Although working on organophosphates does traditionally tend to lead to unfortunate side effects, such as death).
 
The Japanese really didn't have the capacity for making nerve agents. They did have a bio-weapons program that mostly demonstrated that if you stake someone out next to a bomb containing fleas, the fleas will survive and likely bite him in retaliation for their unfriendly treatment. They also lacked the ability to properly weaponize the germs they were playing with.

Japan, even to a greater degree than Germany, was vulnerable to overwhelming retaliation. 8,000 pound of firebombs and 8,000 pounds of Mustard or Lewisite canisters are still just 8,000 pounds of bombs. Simple to drop, simple to transport.

In the case of the Japanese, with their obsession with showing how costly invading the Home Islands was going to be to the Americans, cracking open the WMD door would have been utterly insane. For all of Churchill's threats and talk, it is unlikely that the British would depopulate Germany (and a decent part of central Europe) with Anthrax; in the Pacific War it is quite a bit easier to imagine usage, especially once the details of Bataan and Malaya become known, in retaliation for Japanese use of gas.

BTW: As a note to a previous poster - The Germans lacked aircraft with sufficient range to strike a large part of Britain, so deployment against air bases in enough quantity to deter brutal retaliation is a bit unlikely.


Assuming night deployment Calbear, a JU-88 or HE-111 have enough range to hit almost any airbase in Britain proper
 

loughery111

Banned
Assuming night deployment Calbear, a JU-88 or HE-111 have enough range to hit almost any airbase in Britain proper

Perhaps the original statement should be amended to: "The Germans lacked sufficient numbers of aircraft to reliably and survivably strike large areas of Britain, especially after the loss of the Battle of Britain, with attendant loss of aircraft and shoring up of British air defenses." Additionally, they had no long-range escort fighters... we saw OTL how well deep strikes without those went...:eek:

Anyhow, the problem is that nerve agents need to be dispersed over a wide area that Germany lacked the ability to hit (even if they had sufficient stocks) before the UK could retaliate with anthrax (which they could disperse widely enough to turn Germany proper into an abandoned, howling wasteland.)
 

Thande

Donor
Anyhow, the problem is that nerve agents need to be dispersed over a wide area that Germany lacked the ability to hit (even if they had sufficient stocks) before the UK could retaliate with anthrax (which they could disperse widely enough to turn Germany proper into an abandoned, howling wasteland.)

Indeed......
 

Hendryk

Banned
The Japanese really didn't have the capacity for making nerve agents. They did have a bio-weapons program that mostly demonstrated that if you stake someone out next to a bomb containing fleas, the fleas will survive and likely bite him in retaliation for their unfriendly treatment. They also lacked the ability to properly weaponize the germs they were playing with.
Indeed, I've read somewhere that agents like tabun and sarin are complex to produce in meaningful amounts. Now how complex is VX to make, and could Japan plausibly acquire the capability thanks to German assistance?

As insane as the Japanese high command was, we can safely rule out any use against US forces in the Pacific, which, in any case, to a complete layman such as myself doesn't look like suitable terrain for chemical warfare. But what about the Chinese front? The Japanese used mustard gas at places like Changsha; would it have made a difference if they had used VX instead?
 

Commissar

Banned
BTW: As a note to a previous poster - The Germans lacked aircraft with sufficient range to strike a large part of Britain, so deployment against air bases in enough quantity to deter brutal retaliation is a bit unlikely.

All of the British Isles were within range of German Bombers, even Northern Ireland received a share of bombs. Fighter cover is another matter.
 
All of the British Isles were within range of German Bombers, even Northern Ireland received a share of bombs. Fighter cover is another matter.

One would assume they would deploy the nerve agents at night, to reduce the risk of bombers being shot down and the british capturing intact ordinance
 
Indeed, I've read somewhere that agents like tabun and sarin are complex to produce in meaningful amounts. Now how complex is VX to make, and could Japan plausibly acquire the capability thanks to German assistance?

It is even harder to produce than the G-series, so I don't think Japan can produce large amounts of it.

As insane as the Japanese high command was, we can safely rule out any use against US forces in the Pacific, which, in any case, to a complete layman such as myself doesn't look like suitable terrain for chemical warfare.

Well VX could actually be quiet usefull due to its peristence (up to a month) to prevent the Americans from using airfields on reconquered islands.


But what about the Chinese front? The Japanese used mustard gas at places like Changsha; would it have made a difference if they had used VX instead?

Well VX is much more toxic than mustard gas, the survival rate is much lower. The effect is also almost instantaneos. VX will also remain in the environment for longer.
Comined this will cause a much higher death toll.
 
Gas on Marine landing beaches after initial successes would be horrific. The Rising Sun over Kyoto would be even more so.
 
Top