Could Germany have invaded Britain in 1942/1943 if...

Ok if Hitler gets rejected for the army he meets Gunther Luck who persuades him to join the German high seas fleet, the Butterfly's would be huge. One Hitler gets grounded in his training EG more disciplined, plus it would mean a stronger krigsmarine in ww2. Raeder under sees the new class of ships the aircraft carrier and it would mean a more even footing with the RN.

Since you were looking for a more valid response, here goes.

if Adolf is rejected from the army and somehow manages to end up as a sailor in the High Seas Fleet, Hitler may very well be butterflied from rule altogether. For starters, the HSF was liberal to the army's conservative. Hitler isn't injured in the navy by a gas attack and, presumably, would have a harder time bragging about his military service (though he did stretch the truth greatly OTL).

And assuming that Hitler did join the HSF and left with the same views he held OTL and everything continued like OTL only that Hitler focused more on the navy, Hitler engaging in a massive naval program would be extremely visible. France and the UK would notice this. Either they put pressure on Germany to cut it out, or the UK responds with naval build-up of their own.

Meanwhile, the resources that go into building new aircraft carriers, battleships, and transport craft in Germany shipyards won't go to other, arguably equally or more important branches of the military. If I recall quickly [citation needed], the Germans ran into logistical problems in Poland and that is with a state focused largely on the army and airforce.

For every ship built, how many tanks and planes can't be built?
 

sharlin

Banned
The thing is the UK would not 'maybe' react to a sudden build up of a naval threat. It WOULD. As a country our lifeline depended on the sea so we would not go 'hurdee hurr dyurr' and do nothing. And even if the Germans went absolutely berserk, they still would not have enough of a fleet to counter the UK.

Its a case of "Oh thats cute...you've got four battleships! We've got 12 with four due to commission soon."

And as ye rightly said, every warship built is a lot less tank, plane and artillery guns for the serious issue of invading and taking over places.
 
Wow ok so that was my first post on this forum, and I am amazed at how hostile, aggressive and frankly offensive some people are. I presented a "what if" scenario with not entirely outrageous parameters and some people just went crazy! What's that about?!

I personally don't believe that Germany would have prevailed in my scenario and I certainly don't wish they had! What I was expecting was a rational discussion as to what might have happened.... Is that too much to ask?! Apparently so.
 

sharlin

Banned
The best thing you can do Mike is look up the Sealion thread here:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=180901

Sealion is rolled out so many times that its usually become quite a joke. Without massive butterfly changes that would alter the whole buildup to the war, it was impossible to pull of as was planned which is my folks will generally roll their eyes if they see a 'What if Sealion was done like this..' thread.
 
Wow ok so that was my first post on this forum, and I am amazed at how hostile, aggressive and frankly offensive some people are. I presented a "what if" scenario with not entirely outrageous parameters and some people just went crazy! What's that about?!

You posted a scenario that's been done to death. You really should have spent a little time looking through the forum first before starting it. Just look at the thread Sharlin pointed you to for starters...

I personally don't believe that Germany would have prevailed in my scenario and I certainly don't wish they had! What I was expecting was a rational discussion as to what might have happened.... Is that too much to ask?! Apparently so.
When this is the who knows how many times the same thing has been brought up? Yes it probably is too much too ask.
 
I was thinking perhaps they get some intelligence on all the doubts about Sealion being expressed amongst the German High Command. One other consequences that occurs to me is more RN assets released for convoy duty reducing shipping losses.

Good point.

By july 1940 there's got to be at least 50ish destroyers around the English Channel on (mostly) anti-invasion duty. Even only removing half of those (and keeping the remainder around for escort duties and such for the Channel convoys - at least as long as those continue) would free up 25 destroyers which would make a huge difference on the convoys in the Atlantic.

The cruisers and capital ships freed up this way would make a huge difference in the Med.
 
The best thing you can do Mike is look up the Sealion thread here:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=180901

Sealion is rolled out so many times that its usually become quite a joke. Without massive butterfly changes that would alter the whole buildup to the war, it was impossible to pull of as was planned which is my folks will generally roll their eyes if they see a 'What if Sealion was done like this..' thread.
Actually Sharlin (and Garrison) the best thing to do is not be so hostile and aggresive every time someone mentions a scenario that involves Germany conquering Britain (by whatever means). Garrison in particular is typiccally offensive when he accuses people of being Hitler huggers. Perhaps a private message to a newbie mentioning the Sea Lion sticky ... which is particularly unhelpful by the way ... would have been more appropriate.

However as the OP states ... this is not a Sea Lion thread but a thread that tries to look at a UK invasion in a slightly different light, maybe that should be taken into consideration and also maybe should just back off a bit and use their brains rather than mocking and name calling.

If I were to reply to this thread I would look at each point in turn as layed down in the opener and try to give a reason why each iis either plausble or implausible rather than just stating the whole premise is ridiculous.
 
Actually Sharlin (and Garrison) the best thing to do is not be so hostile and aggresive every time someone mentions a scenario that involves Germany conquering Britain (by whatever means). Garrison in particular is typiccally offensive when he accuses people of being Hitler huggers.

And I find this morbid fascination with the destruction of Great Britain highly offensive. I would put it in the same category with those who post Confederate victory threads in pre 1900. They may spin a gloss of intellectual curiosity but there's all too often an unhealthy fascination with a thoroughly unpleasant regime underlying it.
 
And I find this morbid fascination with the destruction of Great Britain highly offensive. I would put it in the same category with those who post Confederate victory threads in pre 1900. They may spin a gloss of intellectual curiosity but there's all too often an unhealthy fascination with a thoroughly unpleasant regime underlying it.
Or maybe there is a real fascination with an ALTERNATE HISTORY based on intelligent questions whatever the outcome, whether it ticks a persons moral code or not.
 
And I find this morbid fascination with the destruction of Great Britain highly offensive. I would put it in the same category with those who post Confederate victory threads in pre 1900. They may spin a gloss of intellectual curiosity but there's all too often an unhealthy fascination with a thoroughly unpleasant regime underlying it.
Then might I suggest that you stay out of threads dealing with it or refrain from posting in them if it offends you so much that you have trouble posting a polite response? Just because you don't find it agreeable doesn't automatically make it bad wrong fun.
 

sharlin

Banned
Then might I suggest that you stay out of threads dealing with it or refrain from posting in them if it offends you so much that you have trouble posting a polite response? Just because you don't find it agreeable doesn't automatically make it bad wrong fun.

The thing is Simon that to get a Seelowe to work, even with the Germans rolling NOTHING but 6's since the start of the war would require them to roll a 9. And for them to get a Seelowe TO work requires gargantuan changes pre-war such as pre-building landing ships in preparation (which would be noticed and counters prepared), additional naval ships, a better and less costly (for the navy) invasion of Norway which gutted the Germans naval strength when they needed it the most and a lot more besides.

But this comes at costs that most "Sealion done in 1940 this is how!" threads promptly ignore. You want more ships? Great, what are you going to sacrifice to build them? Germany did not have infinite resources and if it suddenly had a fleet of 6 Bismarks, 9 Scharnhorts, dozens of cruisers and destroyers 'just for Seelowe to work' then you're going to have a far smaller army and airforce because of the resources om nom nommed by the construction of warships and landing craft.

This then means you've not probably got the strength to successfully invade France and push the BEF back because you threw all your resources into ship building. And here comes the main problem with 95% of Sealion threads.

The Germans get X Y and Z, to make it actually work, but there's NO knock on effect for their other armed forces. They are still at OTL strength (usually with more Panzer IV's thrown in too). Whilst all this is going on you've got the Germans doing great on land as they did, again rolling nothing but 6's whilst the WAllies constantly fumbled. Then the might of the Kriegsmarine comes in, safely escorts the Panzerwaffen across the channel because the Luftwaffe have sunk anything flying a red ensign this side of the suez.

What i've described above is a typical seelowe wank. And it is a wank because its impossible. We can say 'oh its a what if', but a what if' must still be grounded in reality and reality in wartime is given form in several words. One of the most important and often ignored by folks is this.

Logistics.

And its close cousin Doctrine

With the German industial complex the nest of vipers that it was pre-war and during you then have the massive inter-service rivalries that make anything you hear about today in the press about services bickering about money seem like a schoolyard fight.

Doctrine does not change overnight, the Germans were married to the concept of battlefield support and medium bombers, this did not change through the 30's right up to 1945. The only successful change of a military doctrinal idea I can think of over a short period of time was Stalin's Russia and that happened because of the Purges and because of necessity (in 1942) and even then it wasn't nailed down fully until post war. You can't just go "You know what...we need bombers. Heavy bombers. When? NOW!" And suddenly you've got a working heavy bomber doctrine. Same with the German army, it was married to the concept of Blitzkrieg, and it stayed that way even when it became obvious it wasn't going to work (Kursk says hello). To get a new doctrine to change how your Generals, Air Marshal's and who ever else to suddenly change how they have done things for the better part of 20 years is not an overnight process. It worked in Russia because most of the new officers replacing those coming up after the Purges were fresh and eventually fertile ground to lay your doctrinal seeds. But that took an unprecidented crises and the deaths of millions for it to open Stalin's eyes, and the Soviets didn't pick up their new (old) ideas overnight.

Yet the Wank steps in to have the Germans change everything at the drop of a hat. And they pick up their new hat with the skill and profieciency of their OTL performance. Right away. Whilst in France and the UK, turpentine is now required drinking for Military planners.

Lets go back to warships. You want to build them? Great! Now the Luftwaffe and Heer are screaming that they need more tanks, more fighters, more bombers and your ships who can't conquer france will just be a waste of resources that are better spent elsewhere. And even if you build up a fleet, you're not able to face the RN on anything resembling the numbers needed to stand a chance.

So your planned destroyer programme gets cancelled, the resources given over to the Army and Airforce. And don't even think about that landing ship programme, thats been canned and the steel allocated to the production of Panzers before one even gets its keel laid down.

But lets say you do get the resources pre war, lets say..1936, to build up the fleet more. Huzzah!

now the Royal Navy is looking at you going "...i'm watching you..." England, a country that lived and would die on the strength or weakness of its navy since the days of the Armada is not going to let a continental rival build up a fleet that threatens the safety of the maratime trade and the British isles.

But here's where the wank comes into play. And we'll bring up everyones favorite class of ships and the most often dusted off one.

Behind door number 1 its...

3rdReich_KM_German_Carrier_Graf_Zeppelin_-01.jpg


KMS Graf Zepplin and her sisters! Lets hear a round of applause please!

If Germany suddenly started building carriers the RN would react. A carrier is a purely offensive weapon. The germans can't go 'We need it to defend the baltic' because no one will belive them.

Also carriers are not a case of getting a lightly built hull, slapping an island on it and a big flat bit. They are hideously complicated beasties, to design and operate. It took the RN, USN and IJN over a decade to get a workable carrier doctrine, get the training down, get the aircraft right (yes even the RN..in the 20s and early 30's had decent aircraft for the time). You can't simply go:

'BUILD ALL THE CARRIERS! _o/' and suddenly you have a few flattops with competent crew and a doctrine that works and no you can't ask the IJN for advice either. But in Axis wanks, the Germans get carriers, know immediately how to use them better than the IJN at their height (1942) whilst the British reaction 9/10 times will be to refill their pint glasses with lead based paint and not react at all. Which would not happen. Period.

A what if, is best when its based on the original timeline and has a good grounding in reality.

The reality is that Sealion was impossible, without so many massive changes before the war that the 2nd World War that happens is not the 2nd world war we know.

Yet the wank will have it happen exactly that way. Panzers will crash through the ardennes, the french will be defeated in a staggeringly short time and the Ubermensch will stride across the channel to defeat poor old Blighty. And then a 2nd Dark Age descends upon Europe.

Also the Nazi's are not the plucky underdogs who give the big bad bullies a biff in the nose. They are one of the most horrific regimes to ever walk the face of the earth. Yet the wank often has an answer for that.

Hitlers replaced, he's more rational, he actually wants to hug the jews, all of them. Not gas and shoot them. Change that. And then they are NotNazi's. They are a pale imitation, a shitty tribute band who only want to call themselves Nazi's because the Germans looked snappy in their uniforms and their kit was very good. Wanking the core horror of the Nazi's away is what gets my back up.
 
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I personally don't believe that Germany would have prevailed in my scenario and I certainly don't wish they had! What I was expecting was a rational discussion as to what might have happened.... Is that too much to ask?! Apparently so.

For rational discussion? Maybe. But for civil discussion? No, it isn't too much to ask for to ask for a civil discussion.

Germany did not invade Russia.
After the fall of France Germany focuses solely on defeating Britain.
Germany abandons Sea lion realising it is impossible in 1940
No DOW against USA
German focus on gaining air superiority rather than Blitz
Increases ship building - capital ships/destroyers/transport craft
Germany develops torpedo bombers and other methods of securing the English Channel (it has years to do this)
Massive increase in submarine production to attack Atlantic convoys.

And if the answer is "could" the Germans invaded with all the above, yes, it is possible, but the chance of success would be drastically low and I think the Germans would know that. I'm kinda guessing the POD is 1933, which doesn't lend enough time for a naval build-up or the torpedo bomber development.

The big issue is that there isn't a lot of time to make the German Navy capable of going toe-to-toe with the Royal Navy before 1939. The opportunity cost, as stated earlier, is just too high. If a single capital ship means that, say, a hundred tanks aren't built, then the capital ship isn't good use of the limited resources available to Germany and the limited time scale on which they have to act.

Focusing on naval development right out the gate in 1933, or anytime after 1920, would cause massive butterflies because the British really would not be down for that. Even if the British allowed it to happen, the reduction of tanks, guns, artillery, and planes available to ground operations could change the outcome in Poland and France greatly.

Germany abandons Sea lion realizing it is impossible in 1940
German focus on gaining air superiority rather than Blitz

Wouldn't be much of a point in that case, would it? However, if the Germans focused more on attacking the British ability to respond to their bombings, but it isn't like the German air doctrine was geared toward strategic work at the time.

And again, at risk of going far out of my depth, I don't think Hitler was planning on a prolonged war with Britain in the first place. The entire plan seemed to be that the Germans would run roughshod over Poland and France and after some Unpleasantness with GB, the Germans and British would form an anti-communist alliance and the Germans would be free to commit all their forces east to gain much needed living space the German people needed by evacuating the lesser beings that currently populated the space.

Hitlers replaced, he's more rational, he actually wants to hug the jews, all of them. Not gas and shoot them. Change that. And then they are NotNazi's. They are a pale imitation, a shitty tribute band who only want to call themselves Nazi's because the Germans looked snappy in their uniforms and their kit was very good. Wanking the core horror of the Nazi's away is what gets my back up.

Something the OP didn't do so I don't get the outrage.

Though, this does bring up another part of the equation. The reasons the Germans went to war with the USSR is because, in their mind, there were economic, political, social, and racial reasons to do so in the government's mind.

Even without the declaration of war on the US, FDR was still going to send weapons to everybody fighting the Germans. However, if the Germans don't declare war, FDR isn't handed an easy CB and more resources would be thrown at Japan.

I understand that this would mean Germany reducing its expansion of the army, and Hitler would be unlikely to do this as he had his eyes fixed on Russia. But if Hitler had more accurate intel as to the strength of the Russians he may have decided to eliminate Britain first at all costs, even if it took a few years.

If he had accurate intel on Russian strength, he would either have attacked harder or send more forces east in order to maintain a defense. I don't think someone would look at the USSR on their border and take 80-90% of the forces there and throw them at an island.
 
The thing is Simon that to get a Seelowe to work, even with the Germans rolling NOTHING but 6's since the start of the war would require them to roll a 9.
Oh I'm not disputing that the whole idea of the Unmentionable Sea Mammal was completely bat-shit crazy, like much of Hitler's other plane, I was more question Garrison's statement that seemed to be saying that any discussion of the UK being destroyed simply wasn't appropriate full stop because he didn't like the idea. Which for an alternate history site I find to be rather... bemusing.
 
Parts of his discussions could become viable if the "invasion" aspect is not the focus. One interesting discussion is the evolution of the air warfare btw the LW and the RAF in a scenario were Germany does not invade Russia in 1941 but tries instead to keep up pressure on Britain by air while maintaining a defensive posture east. That might be the best way to keep this thread interesting.

KM centred threads are largely ASBish because German geography and the huge delay it would start any naval race with make it virtually impossible for Germany to challenge RN superiority within the relevant period.
And the KM never contemplated that. The Z plan viewed for the twin goals of superiority over the Soviet Baltic (mostly) and Northern Fleets while retaining a commerce raiding capability. That's why the GZ was such a strange design, being meant, like the soviet Kiev class carriers of the 70s, to support bastion defence or assist Surface Action Groups.
In fact, the Z Plan KM looks a lot like the 70/80s soviet navy, with much the same goals and limitations when facing the Western navies.
 
Sharlin,, not all carriers are offensive. Soviet Kiev class carriers were essentially bastion defence platforms, their Yak38 meant to keep MPA aircraft away, their Helis meant to hunt for NATO SSN tracking soviet SSBN and their missiles, like the GZ guns, meant to allow them to defend themselves against surface threats.
The KM (as seen by Reader) main role was to keep the Baltic and North Sea LOC open.
 
Parts of his discussions could become viable if the "invasion" aspect is not the focus. One interesting discussion is the evolution of the air warfare btw the LW and the RAF in a scenario were Germany does not invade Russia in 1941 but tries instead to keep up pressure on Britain by air while maintaining a defensive posture east. That might be the best way to keep this thread interesting.

If Germany decides not to go east and that Sealion is not going to happen, then the LW might start demanding the development of heavier and heavier bombers and more capable fighters in order to destroy the country's ability to rebuild.

But this wouldn't be something that would bear fruit until 1943 when the effects of no invasion and no USA DOW really start sinking in. With no invasion in the cards, the British would be able to devote naval assets elsewhere.

Meanwhile, in North Africa...?
 

Flubber

Banned
Wow ok so that was my first post on this forum, and I am amazed at how hostile, aggressive and frankly offensive some people are.


When you're new to a party and the first thing you do is shit in the punchbowl, what do you think is going to happen?

I presented a "what if" scenario with not entirely outrageous parameters and some people just went crazy! What's that about?!

No. What you actually did was deliberately ignore the sticky at the top of this forum and what you actually did was deliberately lie when you claimed this wasn't a Sealion thread.

That sticky was put there for a reason. That sticky was put there to prevent special snowflakes from posting threads like this one.

What I was expecting was a rational discussion as to what might have happened...
The rational discussions have happened here before, have happened over and over and over and over until the membership here became sick to death of them. That is why there is a sticky.

NOTHING you suggested is new. NOTHING you suggested hasn't been examine and refuted dozens of times over. NOTHING you suggested was worth starting a thread.

Is that too much to ask?! Apparently so.
Is it asking too much to read the sticky? Apparently so.
 
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