Could Germany have Forced Vichy France to be a Combatant During WWII?

And amidst the fantasy please remember that 1.8m French POW are working in Germany How do you replace the labour?

Have to do that incrementally. OTL there was a program to replace PoW with paid labor. There were clear advantages in long term productivity, but the nazis & German business in 1940-41 were focused of short term gains and failed again to organize properly another useful program. Returning some of that labor to work in French factories would work better than the OTL 'system' of hauling trainloads of machine tools to Germany without plan, & then letting them out in storage parks for weeks, months, and some cases the entire war.
 
There were German generals including Rommel that argued to Hitler that a full peace with France and promoting them to join the war was a winning strategy. Hitler if I recall said his stumbling bloc was other Axis members as in Italy and Japan and what they wanted in terms of the French Empire.
 
Those can be built into the peace treaty. Petains government expected such when they signed the armistice



Replacement of that can be built into the reparations system. Probably better than the haphazard and very wasteful looting of out OTL.
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This charts the daily expenses of occupation calculated by the Reich Treasury compared to the amount they took from the French as occupation costs. The surge in expenses near the end of the occupation is likely due to the Germans using the money to finance the Eastern Front.

The same source gives a total cost of occupation of 31.3 Billion Reichsmarks (570 Billion Francs at 1940 exchange rate). It also calculates that only 14.1 Billion RM (about 45%) was actually needed for the occupation. To replace this the French would have to pay over 78 Billion Francs per year in Reparations.

Then there is the cost of maintaining the German army on French soil. If we assume that they would be content with a 300,000 man army rather than the 500,000 they had at lowest point in 1942 (and assuming costs would scale linearly) the cost of this body would be over 38 Billion Francs per year.

So the cost to the French amounts to about 116 Billion Francs per year. French GDP at the time is a little hard to find but the best guess I have found seems to be about 690 Billion Francs. So Reparations would amount to around 16.8% of the French economy in 1940. That is a pretty hefty amount to give up when you are also under blockade. Especially when you would also need to rebuild your military and guard against incursion from the Allies.
 
That would be one of the several role of the mobile reserve retained in France. Again the cost is built into the reparations system.
The 300,000 number that I listed above would barely contain the estimated number of troops where resting and rearming in France in the first 6 months of 1943. After Stalingrad, 29 divisions in France were refreshing in France at the time. Unless the amount of troops in France, and the costs associated with them, are allowed to rise drastically, it doesn't seem like you can have as many troops as OTL resting in France and still maintain an effective deterrent force there as well.
 
As others have stated Germany was in an interesting position regarding Vichy France in that they were hoping to convince them to actively contribute in the War against the United Kingdom, but were themselves committed to exacting territorial annexations and reparations from Vichy; it is a bit difficult to convince someone to help you when your only offer is that you ".......won't beat them down quite as hard....." in return. On paper it simply made more sense to try and bring the Spanish on board, and given some of the Spanish demands it simply wasn't possible to please both Spain and Vichy.
This isn't to say it is impossible, but I have a feeling that Germany would have to make major concessions regarding reparations and POWs, as well as guarantees that certain territorial cessions are off the table and the French fleet will remain under French command, before Vichy would be willing to commit.
 
There is of course the issue that even Vichy was ambivalent about the Axis.
"If you come with two divisions, we will fight you. If you come with twenty, we will join you" is IIRC what I heard Darlan had said to the Allies about Vichy.
Hitler was conscious of that. In addition, there was no convenient punching bag Hitler could sic Vichy on that could help them restore their pride and give them a stake in being in the Axis. Indeed, all of France's neighbors - Spain, Italy and Germany - were either larger Axis members, or (Switzerland) too important to the German economy, or (Belgium) already in German hands.
 
Have to do that incrementally. OTL there was a program to replace PoW with paid labor. There were clear advantages in long term productivity, but the nazis & German business in 1940-41 were focused of short term gains and failed again to organize properly another useful program. Returning some of that labor to work in French factories would work better than the OTL 'system' of hauling trainloads of machine tools to Germany without plan, & then letting them out in storage parks for weeks, months, and some cases the entire war.

In 1942 which failed miserably, with the Germans sending home old and sick labourers in exchange for young and healthy ones at a rate of 1 POW for 3 workers.

The problem you have to address is this.

The POW are used generally in labouring jobs in agriculture, mining, Which have to be done. At the same time - 40-41 the German army is mobilising an additional 58 Inf Divs. for Barbarossa plus all the rest thats just the wave system divisions, the need is manpower, after all one good kick and the whole rotten edifice will come crashing down, home before the leaves fall.

Returning labour to French factories in general is irrelevant at this time as it means you cannot mobilise German manpower for the army, the plant of use to the war effort is the plant where the French would have retained the workforce in place anyway . The economic blockage in general is the production of coal and steel ( and before that calories to cut coal and timber for pit props). It only matters if there is sufficient in the supply chain to begin with that its piling up because the Reich Factories cannot process it, Not the case there is a perennial shortage of steel not factory capacity and the main producing regions for that are in occupied France not Vichy.

And ofc there is a long term plan, which is to deindustrialise France its only in 42 after the failure of Barbarossa that Hitler makes any effort to use satellite industrial capacity, and then he is in a war with Britain, the USSR and USA, which for France means the more the factories are in France the closer they are to Allied bombing the more air defence they need and as Reich air defence at least in part was from factory workers manning AA positions which is a bad idea in France the more German troops have to be sent to France, all around easier to move the plant to Germany especially as in 42 the factory space built earlier is coming on line and needs tooling up.
 

thaddeus

Donor
I think one should not forget that Vichy France was a lot more useful to the Axis the more it was perceived to be neutral and at peace. The Vichy regime claimed and generally got the allegiance of French colonists, thus France could obtain colonial goods--and Germany could then plunder what they wanted from that. For Britain to try to take control of French colonies or interfere in any way put the appearance of being the bad guy aggressor on Britain.

Making Vichy a mask behind which the Axis could prepare for more war screened by the pretense of a nonexistent peace was far more valuable ... In fact there is no way Hitler could leave France truly independent, but doing a better job of maintaining the pretense would serve the Reich better. As things were, what with Paris under direct occupation along with a huge swathe of the nation, Vichy was a farce. The USA extended diplomatic recognition to the Vichy regime, accepting it as the power French colonies were ruled by, maintained an embassy in Vichy, etc.

So a policy that made the appearance of independence more convincing would perhaps have been more effective, in terms of resources available to a racist Reich that did not trust French people to be loyal to it anyway.
I think there is a middle way. That is negotiate a peace treaty that first established France as a neutral. Then allows France to build all it needs to defend ints empire. To prevent a double cross by France its home defense is relatively immobile and entirely oriented to defense of the coasts. Relatively static ground forces with tanks & other mechanization distributed in small tactical units. Air forces in France are confined to short ranged aircraft for the western zone of defense. To further ensure French honestly the Germans keep a mobile group in eastern France, ready to reinforce the ? French defense and strike at anyone Threatening Frances neutrality, either internally or by invasion. This leave France as a neutral shield, that can defend itself, and which is 'free' to provide Germany with the arms and other resources that can be wrung out of it.
Of course the Allies would consider such neutrality suspect. But OTL they were already blockading France & its colonies so little changes here. The advantage for Germany and France is the window of vulnerability of the Colonies closes faster than OTL. With France better able to rebuild its overseas military There are larger limits on what the Brits can attempt. A big political score would be a lack of German permission to the Japanese to enter Indo China. That was a major morale blow to many French men and loss of credibility for Petains government.
think one of the problems is that "Vichy France" was unexpected, so there is no plan on how to best proceed? seems at least possible that they could dismiss the Japanese, the cooperation with China was always more lucrative, so renew those ties?

at that point they have occupied France, have a deal with the USSR, and a willing trading partner in KMT China.
 
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