Could Germany defeat the Soviet Union one on one?

Could Germany defeat the Soviet Union one on one?

  • Yes

    Votes: 95 41.9%
  • No

    Votes: 59 26.0%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 73 32.2%

  • Total voters
    227

Deleted member 1487

Sorry for random question but if they did defeat Russia what were Hitler's plans after that? Attack Britain?
If by defeat you mean take Moscow and the Soviet regime starts falling apart like in 1917 (army starts to desert and shoot their officers, everyone start going after government officials, perhaps civil war), then Hitler keeps his forces in the East to mop up, but demobilizes 50 divisions per his plan to return to industry and send to the navy/Luftwaffe. They he probably tries to present the Brits with a fiat accompli about his success and try to get them to agree to a peace deal he presents (i.e. probably doesn't negotiate). If the US is in the war that isn't happening, so then Hitler is caught flat footed again and he probably doubles down on the Mediterranean in 1942 and commits more to the uboat war and bombing campaign against Britain while securing more resources in the East.
 
Sorry for random question but if they did defeat Russia what were Hitler's plans after that? Attack Britain?

Most likely if the West is out of the war then follow through with implementing Generalplan Ost, more consolidation of power, begin the restructuring of Berlin etc, basic Nazi things.
 
Most likely if the West is out of the war then follow through with implementing Generalplan Ost, more consolidation of power, begin the restructuring of Berlin etc, basic Nazi things.
Basically Hell on Earth (at least in Poland and the USSR).
 
At least a reenactment of the Mongol conquest of most of Asia.
Except the Mongols never made explicit plans to exterminate 65% of X race, 85% of Y race etc like the Reich. Also there was no Mongol policy analogous to "Extermination Through Labor."

Once Generalplan Ost is finished (between 20 and 30 years after a Nazi victory) the death toll would make the Mongol hordes look like amateurs.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Except the Mongols never made explicit plans to exterminate 65% of X race, 85% of Y race etc like the Reich. Also there was no Mongol policy analogous to "Extermination Through Labor."

Once Generalplan Ost is finished (between 20 and 30 years after a Nazi victory) the death toll would make the Mongol hordes look like amateurs.
No they just did straight up extermination:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_under_the_Mongol_Empire
The death and destruction during the 13th century Mongol conquests have been widely noted in both the scholarly literature and popular memory. It has been calculated that approximately 5% of the world's population were killed during Turco-Mongol invasions or in their immediate aftermath. If these calculations are accurate, this would make the events the hitherto deadliest acts of mass killings in human history.
If a force could be compared to the Mongols in the 20th century, you're evil AF.

Russia would look like China after the Mongol invasion, if not worse.
 
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Stalin categorically rejected a plan which called for a pre-emptive strike on the Germans and the war plan he did approve called for a active defense backstopped by fortified regions while the Red Army geared up for a major counteroffensive. So Stalin making a pre-emptive strike isn't very likely at all. The problem in '41 was that the Soviets didn't have the forces to do it.
He rejected such a plan because he thought war with Germany can be avoided. The whole premise of my post is that even Stalin is not in denial about this...he would go for the pre-emptive strike, he always blew his wad early.
 

Deleted member 1487

He rejected such a plan because he thought war with Germany can be avoided. The whole premise of my post is that even Stalin is not in denial about this...he would go for the pre-emptive strike, he always blew his wad early.
Yes AND because the ability to succeed given the state of Soviet armed forces was effectively nil. Beyond that when it was proposed it would have taken probably until July to make the necessary preparations after mobilization.
Edit:
grabbed my copy of 'stumbling colossus' and Glantz says Zhukov made his proposal on May 15 and Stalin never saw it and it had no semblance of reality given Soviet mobilization, planning, and power projection capabilities. Glantz is convinced Stalin, if he ever saw it, would have rejected it. Since it was made so late, there is no way planning would have been done by June 10th, the earliest the Germans could have attacked, let alone the reorganization/build up for it, because it required a major reorganization of Soviet armed forces. It might have been possible in 1942, though highly ill-advised, but was out of the question in 1941 give the state of Soviet forces and the late date it was even proposed.
 
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Yes AND because the ability to succeed given the state of Soviet armed forces was effectively nil. Beyond that when it was proposed it would have taken probably until July to make the necessary preparations after mobilization.
Edit:
grabbed my copy of 'stumbling colossus' and Glantz says Zhukov made his proposal on May 15 and Stalin never saw it and it had no semblance of reality given Soviet mobilization, planning, and power projection capabilities. Glantz is convinced Stalin, if he ever saw it, would have rejected it. Since it was made so late, there is no way planning would have been done by June 10th, the earliest the Germans could have attacked, let alone the reorganization/build up for it, because it required a major reorganization of Soviet armed forces. It might have been possible in 1942, though highly ill-advised, but was out of the question in 1941 give the state of Soviet forces and the late date it was even proposed.
While military readiness was bad, were not Soviet forces already in a state of reorganizing and being built up during the intervening period of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact before Georgy Zhukov's proposal?

This part from your earlier link is relevant.
Historian Gabriel Gorodetsky has advanced the Russian interpretation that the “State Frontiers Defense Plan 1941,” which put Soviet troops on the borders, was intended as “a demonstration of force” rather than an attempt to “safeguard security.” Stalin, who was not, after all, hopelessly dim, regarded the period of enforced peace after the Hitler-Stalin pact as an opportunity to build up and reorganize the Soviet military while Germany was busy in the west. The occupied areas of Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, and Belarus, no less than the forward-deployed troops, were seen as a barrier behind which this military preparation could be accomplished.[6]
 

Deleted member 1487

While military readiness was bad, were not Soviet forces already in a state of reorganizing and being built up during the intervening period of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact before Georgy Zhukov's proposal?

This part from your earlier link is relevant.
No, the Soviets were still in the process of reorganizing, that wasn't complete yet and to make Zhukov's plan work they'd need even more reorganizing as they'd have to combine all combat ready units together into an offensive force, which meant stripping them out from all over the European USSR and adding them to the attack armies and shuffle out the unprepared units.
And yes Soviet war plans for 1941 and probably for 1942 were based on an entirely defensive idea of forward defense to keep the fighting in the buffer zone the Soviets annexed if war ever happened. The problem for Stalin was that the war in the West effectively ended well before his forces were prepared to deter Hitler.
 
Yes AND because the ability to succeed given the state of Soviet armed forces was effectively nil. Beyond that when it was proposed it would have taken probably until July to make the necessary preparations after mobilization.
Edit:
grabbed my copy of 'stumbling colossus' and Glantz says Zhukov made his proposal on May 15 and Stalin never saw it and it had no semblance of reality given Soviet mobilization, planning, and power projection capabilities. Glantz is convinced Stalin, if he ever saw it, would have rejected it. Since it was made so late, there is no way planning would have been done by June 10th, the earliest the Germans could have attacked, let alone the reorganization/build up for it, because it required a major reorganization of Soviet armed forces. It might have been possible in 1942, though highly ill-advised, but was out of the question in 1941 give the state of Soviet forces and the late date it was even proposed.
Again, ITTL the Germans have peace in 1940. Zhukov would submit his plan sooner, and Stalin, ever paranoid, would have much different considerations.
 

Deleted member 1487

Again, ITTL the Germans have peace in 1940. Zhukov would submit his plan sooner, and Stalin, ever paranoid, would have much different considerations.
Would he though? France was beaten IOTL in mid-1940 and even with Britain exiting the war there isn't evidence that Stalin would want to pick a fight with the Germans in that situation given Soviet unpreparedness and need for reorganization given the lessons of Finland and France.
 
No, the Soviets were still in the process of reorganizing, that wasn't complete yet and to make Zhukov's plan work they'd need even more reorganizing as they'd have to combine all combat ready units together into an offensive force, which meant stripping them out from all over the European USSR and adding them to the attack armies and shuffle out the unprepared units.
And yes Soviet war plans for 1941 and probably for 1942 were based on an entirely defensive idea of forward defense to keep the fighting in the buffer zone the Soviets annexed if war ever happened. The problem for Stalin was that the war in the West effectively ended well before his forces were prepared to deter Hitler.

In retrospect the PLA only had done this (major reorganizations) 11 times from Dec 31, 2015 back to 1952--a period of 63 years. In any case, the quote specifically says the impetus for reorganization was contingent upon Germany being occupied in the West meaning it presumably still would happen and end in Jul 1941. The Ukrainian industry transfer still happens. Defense-in-depth is still gradually perfected from extended withdrawals from White Russia, Ukraine and the Don steppes during Barbarossa ITTL. The conditions for new talent moving up in rank are likewise still present.

For Moscow. A Marne type situation where some extra units might make the difference is not going to happen here. The OTL OKH timetable has to be changed and it was already pretty incredible.

There was also a massive reorganization done in 1943.
 
Would he though? France was beaten IOTL in mid-1940 and even with Britain exiting the war there isn't evidence that Stalin would want to pick a fight with the Germans in that situation given Soviet unpreparedness and need for reorganization given the lessons of Finland and France.
I know you operate on the theory that Stalin would become jaded as spies bring in false launch times for Barbarossa successively, but Stalin is not going to wait that long. Zhukov will be commissioned to produce such a plan to Stalin as soon as Britain capitulates, because then the clock would obviously be ticking. This makes a late Spring offensive date likely, the question really is who takes into account the weather more and attacks first. Being that Russia attacked Finland in the dead of winter, and many of their massive offensives took place in bad weather, I'd assume Stalin gives it a go as soon as possible, probably primarily against peripheral powers like Romania and Hungary, turning them into a Cassus Belli for war.
 

Deleted member 1487

I know you operate on the theory that Stalin would become jaded as spies bring in false launch times for Barbarossa successively, but Stalin is not going to wait that long. Zhukov will be commissioned to produce such a plan to Stalin as soon as Britain capitulates, because then the clock would obviously be ticking. This makes a late Spring offensive date likely, the question really is who takes into account the weather more and attacks first. Being that Russia attacked Finland in the dead of winter, and many of their massive offensives took place in bad weather, I'd assume Stalin gives it a go as soon as possible, probably primarily against peripheral powers like Romania and Hungary, turning them into a Cassus Belli for war.
Why do you think so? IOTL Stalin didn't solicit the plan from him at all, he just submitted it of his own accord in mid-May and apparently it never even reached Stalin.

Defense-in-depth is still gradually perfected from extended withdrawals from White Russia, Ukraine and the Don steppes during Barbarossa ITTL.
There was no defense in depth, withdrawals generally did not happen and if they did it was against orders and people were execute for it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Pavlov_(general)
 
Why do you think so? IOTL Stalin didn't solicit the plan from him at all, he just submitted it of his own accord in mid-May and apparently it never even reached Stalin.
Why not? it would be idiotic not to plan for the contingency if Germany has peace with the west and no formal alliance with Russia while the Germans have the entire balkans occupied and in their sway.
 

Deleted member 1487

Why not? it would be idiotic not to plan for the contingency if Germany has peace with the west and no formal alliance with Russia while the Germans have the entire balkans occupied and in their sway.
Because there had no offensive plan until Zhukov submitted his unsolicted one in May in response to the major build up to that point along the border. Zhukov was only triggered to submit the proposal due to the advanced German build up on the border and no on else offered an offensive solution at that time that I'm aware of and none were solicited. Stalin wanted to keep the peace and not be the first one to cross the border, because he was paranoid Europe would unite against him.

Edit:
Germany would not be occupying the Balkans formally without the war continuing into 1941 with Britain. Also Stalin would be hypersensitive not to antagonize the Germans until he thought his military was in a place to actually fight them and have a shot of winning.

Edit#2: the mobilization plan for 1941 wasn't even complete until July 20th 1941, ie. 1 month after the Germans invaded IOTL! p.100 Stumbling Colossus. It was ordered August 1940 too, so an invasion plan is unlikely to even be complete come May 1941 even if ordered in August 1940.
 
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Deleted member 1487

While military readiness was bad, were not Soviet forces already in a state of reorganizing and being built up during the intervening period of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact before Georgy Zhukov's proposal?
Relevant to this question, "Stumbling Colossus" p. 102 citing the Soviet official history of the Great Patriotic War the quote says it would have taken the USSR 5 years to equip and prepare it's forces to fulfill MP41 starting in 1941. So 1946 is the earliest the USSR given it's peace time economy could have produced a military capable of meeting plans laid out in 1941. The 1941 military was in no way ready for combat, as the German invasion demonstrated unless you count using the armed forces as a speed bump until they could fully mobilize what remained of the economy.
Edit:
P.100: MP41 was ordered in August 1940, first draft done in February 1941, revised repeatedly, and not considered complete until July 20th 1941. It was an enormously complex plan that wasn't even done when the Germans invaded and required another month of development to be finished with after the invasion started.
 
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Just thought that I should mention that, in this scenario, Britain will be just waiting, poised to restart the war against Germany as soon as a reasonable chance of success appears. It is not in Britain's interest to see Germany dominate the continent, nor the Soviets doing the same. Plans to seize Crete, Sicily, Rhodes, Sardinia and Corsica will be put into effect at the earliest possible opportunity. Forces from the (British) Home Islands, Commonwealth and Empire will be put together in southern England, awaiting the possibility of a landing in France.

It really isn't possible to have a German-Soviet one-on-on indefinitely. An interesting scenario nevertheless.

Voted 'maybe' because the situation of the USSR could become so bad ITTL that a political collapse occurs, especially if Moscow, Leningrad and Stalingrad were all lost and held by Germany. Militarily, the Soviets can simply continue to withdraw until the Germans outpace their supply lines - politically, they are more fragile.
 
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