In a timeline where Senator John McCain of Arizona won the Republican Party's nomination for president, and did not select Governor George W. Bush of Texas as his Vice Presidential nominee, do you think that Bush could beat McCain's Vice President for the nomination in 2008 (assuming his brother Governor Jeb Bush of Florida does not run)?
Potential Candidates McCain was considering for the Vice Presidency:

  • Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee (likely to run in 2008)
  • Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska (less likely to run in 2008)
 
I believe that Senator John McCain of Arizona would pick Representative, John Kasich from Ohio.

And in 2008, John Kasich, will most likely stand as Governor of Ohio, getting more experience to further his chance of the white house in 2016
 
I believe that Senator John McCain of Arizona would pick Representative, John Kasich from Ohio.

And in 2008, John Kasich, will most likely stand as Governor of Ohio, getting more experience to further his chance of the white house in 2016
So McCain picks Kasich in 2000. But if Kasich is Vice President, I don't believe he'd resign to run for Governor of Ohio in 2006. Ted Strickland beat Ken Blackwell by a landslide in the Ohio Gubernatorial Race of 2006. Kasich could beat Blackwell in the Republican primary, but 2006 probably wasn't the year for a Republican Governor of Ohio.
 
So McCain picks Kasich in 2000. But if Kasich is Vice President, I don't believe he'd resign to run for Governor of Ohio in 2006. Ted Strickland beat Ken Blackwell by a landslide in the Ohio Gubernatorial Race of 2006. Kasich could beat Blackwell in the Republican primary, but 2006 probably wasn't the year for a Republican Governor of Ohio.

Kasich probably realizes that he doesn't stand a chance against the Democrats in 2008 (presuming that Iraq War and Recession are still occuring as OTL.) He likely steps back to bid his time and decides to run for Ohio Govenor in 2010. he likely wins thanks to the GOP wave that year. Whether or not being McCain's VP will boost him to victory in the 2012 or 2016 primaries/general election is beyond me.
 

ben0628

Banned
Kasich probably realizes that he doesn't stand a chance against the Democrats in 2008 (presuming that Iraq War and Recession are still occuring as OTL.) He likely steps back to bid his time and decides to run for Ohio Govenor in 2010. he likely wins thanks to the GOP wave that year. Whether or not being McCain's VP will boost him to victory in the 2012 or 2016 primaries/general election is beyond me.

Wouldn't a 2000-2008 vice president refusing to run in 2008 be considered an act of cowardice and an admittance that the administration he was a part of was a failure?

If Kasich is Bush's VP, his only chance is to run for president immediately afterwards.
 
ben0628, to cover up accusations of cowardice, Kasich (or any VP who wants to run later in this case) could always come up with some excuse to not run until later. Examples:
1) after eight years in Washington, he now wants to spend more time with his family
2) he's been diagnosed with a hard-to-pronounce but completely curable disease that's all internal, so faking it won't be too hard
3) has to recover from falling down the stairs or some other type of staged-or-self-caused accident
or even 4) merely cite "personal reasons" and later state, in a conspiratorial way, especially if McCain is very unpopular at the time, that it was all McCain's idea b/c McCain didn't actually like him or something like that.
Basically any excuse to not go to the prom with Meg Griffin will do.
 
George H. W. Bush and Martin Van Buren are the only vice presidents to immediately succeed the president they served by election since the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution established the electoral process for president and vice president.

Richard Nixon, was also a Vice President, who became President, but he lost his first election and was lucky to be picked when he sought the the white house eight years later.
 
Another factor for this would be what George W. Bush does in the interim. Does he run for another term as Governor or step aside in 2002 to let Perry run? He'd have to stay/be well-liked by the Republican establishment and remain relevant among the American populace for the next few years. Maybe host his own talk show on Fox a la Mike Huckabee or something. It also matters how much the VP's policies differ/align with Bush and McCain. Maybe if the VP is controversial, gaffe-prone, just plain boring, or unpopular due to his connection to McCain (depending on how well/poor the administration turns out), Bush has a shot. But if the VP is popular, it'll be difficult and, if failed, would be looked at as a grace mistake by Bush, especially if the VP then lost in November, as Bush would be seen as ruining Republican unity/strength early on. If the latter is the case, then perhaps it'd be best for Bush to wait until 2012 to run.
 
Another factor for this would be what George W. Bush does in the interim. Does he run for another term as Governor or step aside in 2002 to let Perry run? He'd have to stay/be well-liked by the Republican establishment and remain relevant among the American populace for the next few years. Maybe host his own talk show on Fox a la Mike Huckabee or something. It also matters how much the VP's policies differ/align with Bush and McCain. Maybe if the VP is controversial, gaffe-prone, just plain boring, or unpopular due to his connection to McCain (depending on how well/poor the administration turns out), Bush has a shot. But if the VP is popular, it'll be difficult and, if failed, would be looked at as a grace mistake by Bush, especially if the VP then lost in November, as Bush would be seen as ruining Republican unity/strength early on. If the latter is the case, then perhaps it'd be best for Bush to wait until 2012 to run.
I'd say George W. Bush runs for and wins re-election in 2002, but then steps aside in 2006 to let Rick Perry run. Maybe he hosts a talk show on Fox in 2007, after he leaves office.
 
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