I would say from really standing back and looking at the whole situation, the issue is that because of where blacks have been in American society they were unable to effectively organize previous to the Civil Rights period, and even there though legal equality was achieved MLK was killed before the issues of economic equality could be raised. In the South the lynchings and anti-black violence was aimed overwhelmingly at community leaders, shop-keepers, church leaders, the people who could organize their people, and in other American communities not facing the same problems did organize their people.
So basically there has to be enough time for the blacks to organize, so that they can effectively resist whites once the Union eventually leaves. Effective resistance in this era does mean firepower, and having the arms to dissuade attacks against their community. The other way to give blacks the room they need is to radically change the way slavery ends.
If slavery ends early in the United States, I think that during the 1790's one of those, no more slave states resolution is the best bet, perhaps with the 1832 Virginia resolution passing, then your going to have a whole different dynamic vis a vis southern whites.
The other option is having slavery last longer. I saw a really good scenario where Clay wins in 1844, and western expansion ends, and because of the lack of expansion slavery is trapped and seen as the "peculiar institution" not as the "Slave Power." Economic competition from overseas sources of cotton in the late 1860's and 70's make slavery seem less like a good idea, combined with growing opposition even within the South, leads to the Seward-Davis Manumission Act of 1874, which declares all slaves born after Jan 1 1875 to be free. With the much slower transition, and without the Civil War, then blacks may be permanent second-class citizens, but not targets of white violence.
I guess this doesn't meet the timeline scenario, but what do people think about that as a timeline?
So basically there has to be enough time for the blacks to organize, so that they can effectively resist whites once the Union eventually leaves. Effective resistance in this era does mean firepower, and having the arms to dissuade attacks against their community. The other way to give blacks the room they need is to radically change the way slavery ends.
If slavery ends early in the United States, I think that during the 1790's one of those, no more slave states resolution is the best bet, perhaps with the 1832 Virginia resolution passing, then your going to have a whole different dynamic vis a vis southern whites.
The other option is having slavery last longer. I saw a really good scenario where Clay wins in 1844, and western expansion ends, and because of the lack of expansion slavery is trapped and seen as the "peculiar institution" not as the "Slave Power." Economic competition from overseas sources of cotton in the late 1860's and 70's make slavery seem less like a good idea, combined with growing opposition even within the South, leads to the Seward-Davis Manumission Act of 1874, which declares all slaves born after Jan 1 1875 to be free. With the much slower transition, and without the Civil War, then blacks may be permanent second-class citizens, but not targets of white violence.
I guess this doesn't meet the timeline scenario, but what do people think about that as a timeline?