Could France have wiggled out of the obligation to Poland?

Cook

Banned
that Germany had apparently agreed to a cease fire, but with its forces staying exactly where they were...
No, Hitler never agreed at any stage to a cease-fire, he did however make various noises of approval for ‘serious negotiations’ in keeping with is image as the peace-maker.

Bonnet would likely have agreed to a conference plan with a cease fire in operation with no German withdrawal as a prerequisite.
Bonnet wanted a conference even without a ceasefire; he had no preconditions and was desperate for peace on any terms, it was Daladier that insisted a ceasefire and at least token withdrawal of German troops (the ten miles you mentioned.)
 
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Cook

Banned
France, though remarkably stupid, isn't going to just assume...
‘France’ doesn’t exist, there are only French politicians, political parties, military leaders and (least important in the Third Republic) public opinion, all of whom were deeply divided and much of which greatly admired Hitler and Mussolini and wanted to align with them.

We are talking about a time when the two most capable politicians of France were excluded from positions of power, one being excluded completely from cabinet despite being the leader of one the largest political parties in government, and the other given a minor cabinet position despite being the protégé of Clemenceau, all because they were Jews; it does not pay to argue that ‘France’ will do what in hindsight is obvious or essential, many of the members of the French parliament were the same men who had preferred to elect a man showing clear signs of insanity to the presidency rather than elect Clemenceau. (and just to show that it wasn’t an accident, after resigning from the presidency because his health, Paul Deschanel was then elected to the Senate where he remained for the rest of his life, despite being barking mad!)

However, the UK DOW has probably still gone in, even if France bottles it.
Britain had four divisions available in August 1939 (up from the two it had available at the time of Munich); it is rather hard to see a British declaration of war without France. Particularly since without France, the British would have no physical way of even reaching Germany.

Hitler can't wait till 1943. By then the UK will be stronger...
Hitler wasn’t playing Hearts of Iron; future events were an unknown and as stated before, Hitler knew that Germany was not yet strong enough to go to war against the western allies.
he'll be on the move before the summer of 1940...
Probably; most likely making Lithuania into a protectorate and looking at a revision of the Danish border.
 
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It does become very clear that there are "undercurrents" in French politics in 1930's, which cannot be discounted.

The amount of people (and politicians) in favour of Nazi ideology are stunning. Whether that also turned into support for Nazi Germany is something else.

Of course, all of this also impacted France after 1944/5, trying to reconcile resistance with active support for Germany.

Now, if Britain is less forceful in getting France onboard OR France just takes more time, we can (according to Cook) see it dragging until 6-9 September.

if it drags on with French inertia, the whole thing becomes rather meaningles.

Would the delay have been due to lenghty debates in parliament or due to Daladier/Bonnet?

Somehow, it looks as though nobody believed that Germany could settle a war in a few days. On top of, there would be time to consider etc. So, one day follows the next and nothing really gets done until it is too late.

What could/would Chamberlain and Halifax have done if France is fence sitting until 6-9 September and then: nothing.

Conclusion I think: France could have wiggled out of its obligations but it would require more time and delays until 6-9 September. After that date a DoW would have been considered hopeles.

To facilitate these delays, Hitler only had to play Mussolini and/or any other negotiation strategy.

Dahlerus comes to mind, although he was more on the British.

So, a massive diplomatic effort might have saved the day. Could Hitler have played the US as well in this game?

It raises some interesting scenarios (as also seen below):

No french DoW, but a British one. Now what. Britain can't exactly do anything

Ivan
 

katchen

Banned
The answer could be simplicity in itself. The French basically play HItler's game and tell him. "You want lebensraum? Go ahead and attack the USSR and get it!"
Trusting to Stalin to finally put Hitler in his place. And vice versa.
Perhaps even ally with Hitler. In return for Hitler instead of taking Alsace-Lorraine, giving France French speaking Wallonia in a partition of the Low Countries. Which France might do if Laval takes power.
The Netherlands, Flemish Belgium and ultimately German speaking Switzerland would be incorporated into the German Reich.
 
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