Could Fatimid Caliphate Survive to present day?

ben0628

Banned
If the Fatimid Caliphate decides to NOT invade Egypt and instead consolidate their gains and remain in Northwest Africa (Present day Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia), could they possibly survive into the 21st century?

I ask this because conquering Egypt seemed to be their downfall since it put them closer to more powerful Muslim kingdoms and involved them in the crusades. Not only that, but Northwest Africa didn't seem to get invaded that much in recent history. As long as they survive Ottoman expansion and European colonialism, I feel like the Fatimid Caliphate would be able to last well into the present.

Also, if this were to happen, would the majority of African Muslims today be Shiite Muslims or would they remain Sunni and if so, what impacts would this have on present day politics?
 
An interesting question, one rarely asked on the site. So I commend that.

Now on the issue at hand. The Fatimids in contrast to your characterization gained their power and strength and near all grand about the Fatimid period comes from its capture of Egypt during the 10th century. Simply being close to the other Islamic powers had no hand in the decline and dissolution of the Fatimids, it was a combination of ethnic strife in the military and decisive loses on the battle field against more fearsome opponents due in part to a weak cavalry core as seen during the late 1000s, this is corroborated by Crusading accounts and by Saljuk invasions into Syria. In essence the Fatimids was the weak link, not because it owned Egypt or its proximity to whoever.

Now on its survivability to modern times, it is entirely implausible for the Fatimid to survive solely in Libya on the coast, it will eventually be taken over by crusading movements or an Egyptian polity. The Almohads in contrast despite owning only Morocco in its later stages, failed to last any length of time, in the same, the Fatimids will be. The Fatimids best chance of long term survival is by avoiding its decay in Egypt and becoming the major force in Egypt. By lasting an indefinite length of time there, it would become near status quo rule over the area for them, in much the same as the Abbasid rule in Iraq, except the Fatimids will not suffer a disastrous and shameful defeat by the Mongols. Then butterfly the Ottomans and equip the Fatimids to weather European colonization, then I assume it is possible, albeit highly unlikely.

To survive, a state needs to either be well equipped to survive ages on end or so isolated that it doesn't matter like Bhutan or various others, North Africa was not one of these areas.
 
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