Could Fascist Italy survive a 1933 or 1934 defeat to the Western Allies ?

[walmart]

In late 1932–early 1933, Mussolini planned to launch a surprise attack against both France and Yugoslavia that was to begin in August 1933.[126] Mussolini's planned war of 1933 was only stopped when he learned that the French Deuxième Bureau had broken the Italian military codes, and that the French, being forewarned of all the Italian plans, were well prepared for the Italian attack.[126]

I don't see an attack on France at all being likely but I imagine Yugoslavia would be quite possible. I imagine a pod could either be not finding out about the military codes being broken or France not breaking them. Alongside a successful Ustase assassination of Alexander I in 1933 and maybe a limited uprising could see an Italian invasion of Yugoslavia that in turn leads to Western intervention.

I imagine Allied War aims are going to be focused on humbling Italy rather than a total overthrow of the Fascist Government. So any war is going to be shorter and more limit in scale than otl World War 2. I assume that Fascist Italy would lose the war with the loss of it's overseas empire along with possibly Istria and Dalmatia with associated military limitations and sanctions.
This would be a situation similar to Iraq Post Gulf War. So would it be likely for Fascist rule to survive ? Unlike Iraq, there is no equivalent of the Sunni Arabs for Mussolini. However, I don't see the Italian military being destroyed to the same degree as the Iraqi one and I imagine the sanctions outside of France, Britain, and Co would be non-existent.

Benito Mussolini - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Ex Nihilo]

I'm not entirely sure if a Western intervention would occur in 1933. France was seriously struggling during this period, and Britain was neither formally allied with them yet, nor seemingly would be seriously interested in saving Yugoslavia. Italy might fight a token war with France, a few naval clashes and colonial border struggles, but otherwise the bulk of the fighting would be against Yugoslavia.

If there were a general intervention, I would have to imagine that fascism could survive. The Grand Council could ITTL kick Mussolini out if things are going too badly on the home-front, and put someone else in charge. A limited defeat might not be enough to topple Mussolini even, but I'd suspect that he would bare the brunt of the blame and so he might become the fall guy. Without the risk of total allied occupation, and the need to switch sides as Italy did in WW2, the total collapse of the fascist state seems unlikely.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

In 1933 or 1934, if we accept the assassination of Alexander I, then one possibiliy would be that Italy takes Slovenia as a buffer state to protect itself and Austria, while ensuring control of Trieste. At that time, Italy was still acceptable as they. hadn't attacked Abyssinia, and they could probably justify what they did well enough.
Then there's the quedtion of Croatia, Albania and Abyssinia. My guess is that they could get away with taking Albania, which gives them access to southern Yugoslavia - handy for later - but would get a bad reaction if they tried for Croatia, and wpuld get OTL levels of trouble with Abyssinia.

 

[Fire and shadow]

Mussolini attacking France would have made the attack at Crecy look like the capture of Belgrade.

 

[walmart]

Would a negotiated peace with Italy losing it's colonies but making gains in Europe at Yugoslavia's expense be possible ?
I was thinking minor Italian lands gains with a rigged Croatian independence referendum.